Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
945 am EDT sun Apr 26 2015

Synopsis...
low pressure along the Virginia-North Carolina border will move
off the coast this morning. An upper level low pressure system
will spin in the Gulf of Maine during the early part of the week.
High pressure will move into the area Tuesday. Another low
pressure system is expected to track across the southeastern U.S.
Wednesday...reaching eastern North Carolina Thursday evening.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
low pressure continues to slowly press southward across NC...with
another more organized low offshore. Most light rain has moved
into the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia and Tidewater...with a few showers leftover near
St. Mary's County. Forecast updated before 930 to reflect activity
leaving the County Warning Area more quickly...and the 1030 scheduled update will
refine this further. Will leave slight chance probability of precipitation for light rain
over portions of The Highlands based on 06nam and hrrr. Skies
gradually clear north to south...but stratocu redevelopment
expected with afternoon instability.

Maximum temperatures generally higher to the north where more sun is
expected. Low 60s north...upper 50s for southwestern zones given more clouds
from the departing front.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/...
tonight...north wind increases 10 to 15 miles per hour late with cloudy
conditions as the zonal upper trough axis approaches from the north.
Min temperatures upper 30s northwest of balt-wash corridor and west of Blue
Ridge...low to middle 40s rest of the area. Dry.

Monday...upper trough from low off Maine slides into the area.
Generally instability with isolated/scattered light rain showers/sprinkles
expected to move in from the northwest. Snow flakes above about 2500 feet
elevation. Went a degree or two below mav/met/gmos blend due to
expected clouds. Breezy northwesterly flow 15 miles per hour with gusts to 25 miles per hour.

&&

Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
conds should be imprvg Monday night into Tuesday as induced high pressure moves
into the middle Atlantic behind the departing vertically stacked low in
the Gulf of ME. Brzy conds expeceted Monday ngt/Tue. Skies should be on
the imprv during this time...W/ M sun expeceted Tuesday. Low pressure tracking
across the Gulf states Wednesday may spread clouds into the middle Atlantic but
pop chances will be low - best in the central shen vlly. Once the low
reaches the southeast CST it is expeceted to track slowly NE toward hat Thursday.
This will bring about a better chance for rain to the forecast area. Quantitative precipitation forecast would
be low.

The weak ahead will see high temperatures at or below the l70 late Apr climatology norms.
Looking deep into the Crystal Ball it looks lake warming could occur
the following weak.

&&

Aviation /14z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR expected through the taf period. North winds 5-10kt. Winds
become light/vrb tonight...then becoming northwest Monday 15 knots gust 20 to
25 knots.

High pressure builds into the area Monday night through Wednesday. No concerns expeceted
aviation-wise. Low pressure tracking to the S may cause degradation in
ceilings Thursday.

&&

Marine...
north flow continues. Winds increase to around 15 knots late morning
through this afternoon. Winds shift northwest late tonight and
increase...Small Craft Advisory for all waters Monday 15-20 knots with 25 knots gusts.

Small Craft Advisory conds likely Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories...
District of Columbia...none.
Maryland...none.
Virginia...none.
WV...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 8 am to 6 PM EDT Monday for
anz530>543.

&&

$$
Near term...aviation and marine updates...kcs

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations