Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
324 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
High pressure over Lake Huron will build into the northeastern
U.S. Through Friday. The high will move offshore this weekend
into early next week...bringing a return of warm and humid
conditions.
&&
Near term /today/...
Surface analysis shows cold fnt has moved well S into North Carolina. High pressure
over Lake Huron. Last vestiges of precipitation in central Maryland/northern Virginia/eastern WV
but weakening while tracking southeast. The cloud cover in asso west/ these is
keeping overnight fog at Bay.
As drier air moves into the region some very plsnt weather is on tap as
Spring comes winds down. Clearing skies...dewpoints in the 50s...high
temperatures in the u70s/80s.
&&
Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
..and the final moments of Spring look to end on a fine note in
the middle Atlantic as well... high pressure over the northestern U.S. Tonight through Thursday
night. Dewpoints continue on the dry side. Lows in the 50s both ngts west of
I-95...60s in the cities and along the Bay. High temperatures Thursday in the l80s.
&&
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
Broad upper ridge over the central Continental U.S. Builds eastward into the
Middle-Atlantic States on Friday and remains overhead this weekend into
early next week. At the surface...region will be situated on western periphery
of an Atlantic high. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer each day
under the influence of weak return flow but oppressive heat not
expected to develop with this pattern.
Most of the area will be rain free through the weekend with subsidence
inversion capping convection. However...isolated pop up showers and
storms are possible over the mts during the peak heating hours each
day.
Slightly higher chances for afternoon showers and storms early next week as
subsidence inversion weakens and boundary-layer moisture increases.
For right now...have confined chance probability of precipitation to the higher terrain
without organized forcing to maintain convection too far east of the
mts.
&&
Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/...
Scattered rain showers over central Maryland/northern Virginia are on the wane. Although there was
quite a bit of rain yesterday it seems that the overnight cloud cover is keeping
the possiblity of fog at Bay. Today VFR conds will be seen at all
airports. Fog will be possible tonight...then VFR again Thursday.
Mainly VFR through early next week. Patchy radiational fog may reduce
visibilities during the early morning...especially during the fog prone
terminals such as mrb/cho.
&&
Marine...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will track east towards New England tda/tngt.
Although the pressure gradient is not great...suspect that the warm/channeling
down the ches Bay could bring gusts to Small Craft Advisory levels...with the waters
S of drum pt being the most likely location. An Small Craft Advisory has been issued
there for the afternoon hours.
No probs expeceted on the waters tonight through Thursday night.
Light southerly winds through the weekend with hipres in control.
&&
Lwx watches/warnings/advisories...
District of Columbia...none.
Maryland...none.
Virginia...none.
WV...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 PM EDT this
evening for anz534.
&&
$$
Products...Woody!/Jrk
