Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
959 am EDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015
high pressure will remain overhead today before moving off the
coast tonight and Thursday. A warm front will setup over the
northern middle-Atlantic Thursday night and Friday. A cold front
will move through the region Friday night. High pressure will
return for Sunday and remain place into the first part of next
Near term /through tonight/...
high pressure will provide abundant sunshine and pleasant weather
conditions for today. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to
reach the middle to upper 50s in most places...except low 60s over
Surface high pressure will slide off the middle Atlantic coast
tonight. Winds will veer around to the south overnight but remain
fairly light. Overnight lows in the 30s can be expected...except
low 40s in the Baltimore/District of Columbia metropolitan centers.
Short term /Thursday/...
Thursday is warm and dry with southwesterly flow increasing around the
developing Bermuda high. Fire weather threat again that day (see fire
weather section below). Continued going above guidance for maximum
temperatures with low to middle 70s west and south from District of Columbia with middle to upper
60s for central MD/Baltimore.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
Thursday night a cold fnt will stretch from New York state across Ohio to MO. In the
middle Atlantic this will lead to a warm night west/ lows in the 50s west/ chance probability of precipitation
across the western part of the forecast area. It appears that low pressure will
develop along the fnt over Kentucky Friday. This will keep the fnt from pushing
through the area...and while it will be M cloudy Friday it will also be warm
west/ much of the area expeceted to climb into the 70s during the afternoon.
The fnt is expeceted to finally move through the area Friday night. Have incrsd
probability of precipitation to 70 Friday aftn/ngt. Isolated thunder will also be possible.
High pressure will build back into the area Sat. Expect a brzy/M sunny
day west/ highs back into the 50s.
High pressure settles over the area sun. Lighter winds west/ afternoon temperatures
climbing back into the 60s.
Next chance of rain looks to be Tue/Wed.
Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions with light winds expected at all terminals today
through tonight. Southerly winds will increase on Thursday. A few
gusts in the 15 to 20 knots range will be possible.
The next chance for sub VFR conds looks to be late Friday/Friday night west/ a
cold frontal passage. Rain shower/isolated thunderstorms possible. High pressure returns for Sat.
Gusty west-northwest winds expeceted. Xclnt flying conds expeceted Sunday.
Small Craft Advisory for the middle to Lower Bay and lower tidal Potomac through 12
noon today. Light and variable flow this afternoon before
becoming southerly tonight. Winds increase Thursday with Small Craft Advisory starting
late Thursday morning continuing through the afternoon.
Rain shower/isolated thunderstorms possible on the waters late Friday/Friday night. High pressure building
back into the Sat will likely lead to the issuance of an Small Craft Advisory. No probs
southerly/southwesterly flow around developing Bermuda high becomes gusty Thursday
with high temperatures into the 70s for most of the area. Greatest
fire threat is in central Virginia where winds and highest
Sat looks to be a brzy/possibly windy day. Depending upon how much
rain falls Friday night will determine how much of a fire threat exists
District of Columbia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 10 am to 6 PM EDT Thursday for
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for anz532>534-537-