Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
1030 am EDT Sat Jul 12 2014
offshore high pressure will dominate the middle-Atlantic into Sunday.
A cold front will approach the area Sunday night into
Monday...with a stronger cold front likely crossing the area late
Tuesday. High pressure will build along the eastern Seaboard for
the second half of the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 14z...surface high pressure axis is along the middle-Atlantic and
southern New England coast. Middle-level clouds east of the I-95 corridor
will continue to drift east from the area through midday.
Updated pop/weather forecast based on 11z hrrr with a farther east
focus of afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity. Convective
storms should initiate near the Blue Ridge and progress over at
least the western balt-wash suburbs. This will continue to
Convection should be diurnally-driven and dissipate with the setting
of the sun. Patchy fog may form again overnight...particularly in
climatologically fog prone areas and also places that receive
Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/...
models have been consistent that moisture and instability will
increase for Sunday. GFS has precipitable water values increasing
close to 2 inches by day/S end...with dewpoints near 70 degrees.
Models also show a decent vorticity maximum affecting the County Warning Area...promoting at
least scattered showers and thunderstorms. While shear still looks
best northwest of the County Warning Area...instability and strength of vorticity maximum may
promote a few strong or severe storms during the afternoon.
Activity from Sunday afternoon should diminish/move away Sunday
evening but will continue with low probability of precipitation across northwest portion of
the County Warning Area as faster advance of a trough/cold front may allow for some
overnight convection within this zone.
Leaned closer to mav for maxima Sunday given southwest flow in the
low levels...mav/met were similar for Sunday night.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
forecast for the beginning of the weak will be dominated by an incrsgly amplified
500 mb pttn...where shortwave energy will dive across the Great Lakes...pushing a well
defined cold front toward the eastern Seaboard. As can be expeceted west/ any anomalous
solution...variances exist amongst guidance members. Regardless of specifics
there is consensus that County warning forecast area Monday will be west/in wm sector... affected by
a hot/humid/unstbl air mass. A Lee trough axis may provide a ncsry focusing
mechanism...although another source of upward vertical velocity would reside across the northwestern County warning forecast area
due to approaching bulk shear and orographic lift. Have opted to place
focus...by way of likely probability of precipitation...there. Expect updrafts to be vigorous
enough to sustain themselves...and have carried likely probability of precipitation into the I-95
crrdr by evening. All ncsry ingredients available for thunderstorms to not only
become severe...but also be organized. Just need to see how it all
Am thinking that the GFS may be a little too quick west/ progression of
cold front. Its timing will ultimately determine the fate for Tuesday. A faster
fnt would curtain severe thunderstorm chances. Too many debris clouds would yield the
same outcome. Either way...the I-95 crrdr stands the best chance at
receiving measureable precipitation...which warrants likely probability of precipitation Tuesday. To the
west...probability of precipitation held back at chance levels. Severe thunderstorm risk for both Monday and Tuesday
will be continue to be carried in the severe weather potential statement.
Maxt Monday simlr to prvs forecast...going a pinch above guidance to acct for
warm 800 mb temperatures and ample insolation. Tuesday maxt nearer climatology due to
expeceted clouds. In fact...west of blurdg a bit below climatology. This forecast period may
have the hiest error potl in the extended forecast. Stayed warm for min-T Monday
night...as dewpoints near 70f will inhibit substantive cooling.
By Tuesday ngt-Wed...cold front will be pushing away from County warning forecast area...permitting Canadian
hipres to build. This high will be the controlling weather influence for the
rest of the weak. Temperatures/dewpoints will be refreshing for July in the middle
Aviation /14z Saturday through Wednesday/...
a few thunderstorms may form near the higher terrain this
afternoon...mrb/cho most vulnerable. Some guidance suggests there
could be convection moving east to affect iad later in the
afternoon. Confidence low...and have restricted chances along/west
of the Blue Ridge.
If skies clear out tonight...some fog is possible especially
cho/mrb. Higher coverage of thunderstorms is expected Sunday with
better moisture/instability and a shortwave. Afternoon thunderstorms
will be possible all terminals.
Flgt restrictions likely at times Monday-Tuesday in vicinity of thunderstorms and rain. VFR will prevail
for a majority of the time...but brief periods at or below IFR possible.
Hipres builds Wednesday. VFR.
southerly flow 5-10 knots this morning will increase through this
afternoon into tonight as high pressure pushes east from the area.
Small Craft Advisory is effect for the main of the Chesapeake Bay and into the
lower tidal Potomac late today into tonight. There may be a lull
during the day Sunday...but it/S possible winds increase into Small Craft Advisory
criteria again Sunday evening or Sunday night.
Intervals of thunderstorms and rain likely Mon-Tue...each posing a gusty wind threat.
Gradient flow may be enough to place waters on the cusp of Small Craft Advisory
anyways. Any addtl wind would necessitate smw/S. The final wave would be
a cold front. At this time guidance not suggesting gusty winds in northwest flow
Post-fropa...but based on temperature contrast...suspect that will change.
There/S a bit of uncertainty on exactly when cold front passage would be. Since thats
at the end of the marine period...will omit at this time. Later forecasts can address
water levels are a couple tenths foot above the astronomical
prediction this morning. This anomaly will increase as southerly
flow strengthens into tonight. This increase and a full moon soon
will allow water levels to approach minor flooding thresholds
at sensitive sites like Annapolis during the preferred Sunday
morning high tide.
District of Columbia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 am EDT Sunday
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 am EDT
Sunday for anz532>534-537-543.