Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
348 am EDT Monday Jul 28 2014
A cold front will pass through the area today. Drier weather will move
in behind the front. High pressure will build overhead for midweek...
bringing cooler and less humid conditions.
Near term /today/...
Region escaped the severe threat Sun night - received a report of a tre down
in balt Colorado. Still wouldn't be surprised to rcv more reports aftr
sunrise...but overall the bullet was dodged.
Low pressure now over Lake Erie west/ an attendant cold fnt moving into western
PA. This will be tracking across the County Warning Area today...moving offshore by early
evening. There could be some instability driven showers this afternoon...W/
the possiblity of in-cloud lightning but no severe threat. As has often been the
case this month temperatures will top out below climatology norms - gnrly lm80s...
u80s possible in the cities...mu70s in the mountains in adtn it will become
brzy aftr middle morning in the Post frontal air.
Short term /tonight through Wednesday/...
Jul is winding down...and for the east CST it will do so under the
influence of an unusually large upper level trough. This will keep temperatures
below normal. Expect to see clouds break up during evening hours...M clear overnight and
during the morning..then a cumulus field develop during the afternoon..especially over
the mountains and close to the PA brdr.
Lows in the 50s...l60s in the cities and along the Bay. Highs
75-80. At a time of the yr where highs can reach the u90s (high
temperatures 7/29/2011: dca 104..BWI 101..iad 103...all records). Hopefully
we'll all get a chance to get outside and enjoy the upcoming weather.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Models indicate the trough axis will slowly retrograde back west of
the area late in the week into next weekend as subtropical ridging
re-establishes its hold over the western Atlantic. As the trough
moves back/redevelops to our west...winds will become southerly
increasing the heat and humidity as well as the chances of showers
and thunderstorms. The longwave pattern by the end of next weekend
would suggest a potential for heavy rain given the long and
persistent trajectory of wind out of the Gulf of Mexico riding along
a stalled or slow-moving front.
Aviation /today through Friday/...
At 06z vlifr conds occurring at mrb. As the fnt draws closer this
should promote mixing and conds should be imprvg by sunrise.
Elsewhere conds are VFR. Worst case scenario would be for some afternoon
instability rain shower to develop. Winds will turn to the northwest west/ gusts over 20 knots
from middle morning through late afternoon.
VFR conds expeceted for much of the weak ahead.
Small Craft Advisory winds expeceted today - for the remainder of the overnight through middle morning
for the lower ptmc/wider part of the ches Bay...and then for all of
the waters for the late morning/afternoon as a cold fnt moves through.
No probs foreseen thereafter through Thursday.
District of Columbia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 PM EDT this
evening for anz530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for