Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
415 am EST sun Mar 1 2015
high pressure will move east early today as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the west. Moisture will overspread the
region today creating a wintry mix. A cold front will cross the
area tonight. High pressure builds on Monday and continues
through Tuesday. A warm front will cross the area Tuesday night.
Then a strong cold front will cross the region late Wednesday as
cold high pressure builds in for Thursday and continues into the
Near term /through tonight/...
a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for portions of
northeast Maryland today and tonight. Winter weather advisories are
in effect across the middle-Atlantic today and tonight.
A 1040mb high is centered across the I-95 corridor from New
England to Richmond this morning. Temperatures are in the 20s with
dewpoints in the single digits/teens across the area.
A shortwave trough is located across Southern Lake Michigan this
morning while a jet streak intensifies across the mid-west.
Confluent flow at 850mb has led to warm air advection and
precipitation has broken out from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio
Valley. A secondary low level jet across the Carolinas has also led
to overrunning. These two low level jets have led to Gulf and
Atlantic moisture to stream into the region this morning. Snow is
expected to move into the Potomac Highlands this morning associated
with the moisture across the Ohio Valley. Snow will also move into
the central foothills and Piedmont as well this morning associated
with the wwa across the Carolinas. Snow will eventually spread to
the north and east and reach iad-dca-BWI by middle-late morning. Warm
air aloft will begin to nose into the region from the southwest late
this morning and sleet and freezing rain are expected by late
morning across the southwest to early afternoon across NE Maryland.
Temperatures will slowly climb today but mainly stay below freezing so snow
and ice are expected to accumulate.
The changeover from snow to sleet/freezing rain is expected to occur quickly
and therefore snow amounts were taken down slightly. This event is
expected to be more of a icing event than a snow event.
A Winter Storm Warning was issued for northeast Maryland due to the
potential for heavy icing due to higher amts of liquid expected in
this area and sub freezing temperatures through the day. This region
is climatological known to stay colder in cold air damming
situations. Further west and south...winter weather advisories are
in effect for around a tenth of an inch of ice to one to two tenths
across the north and west suburbs of District of Columbia and Baltimore.
Freezing rain will end from SW to NE late this afternoon and evening
across the region. Forecast soundings Show Low level moisture will stay
around and therefore patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle is expected
through tonight. Freezing drizzle would continue to cause a hazard
this evening and therefore ww advisories and ws warning continues
A cold front will move through the region late tonight. Snow showers
are expected across the western slopes. An additional inch of
snowfall is expected through Monday morning.
Short term /Monday through Monday night/...
weak high pressure builds over the area on Monday and continues
into Monday night. Some upslope snow showers in the western
mountains to start the day...but should end by middle day. Highs on
Monday will moderate as 850 mb temperatures really not that cold...with
readings still well below seasonal normals for early March.
On Monday night...a warm front will approach from the southwest as
high pressure retreats east. Sub-freezing surface temperatures...but
precipitation should hold off as shown by 00z European model (ecmwf) and GFS.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
on Tuesday...as the warm front moves northeast precipitation should increase
throughout the day. Wednesday afternoon temperatures will be the warmest in
quite some time...as 50s will be prevalent...the mex MOS shows
l60s across southern portions of the County Warning Area. However amount of cloud
cover and any precipitation could temper highs on Wednesday.
Models continue to show more organized precipitation for late Wednesday into
Wednesday night ahead of a strong cold front. Amounts of one inch liquid
are possible Wednesday night.
Thu-Sat...the cold front will be east of the area early Thursday as high
pressure builds in. Dry weather expected through Saturday with
below normal temperatures.
Aviation /09z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR conditions will become MVFR/IFR quickly as -sn moves
into the region this morning. -Sn is expected to change to -plfzra
by late morning across the terminals. Visibilities will likely improve once
-sn stops but ceilings are expected to lower late this morning. IFR ceilings
will continue through the evening with the exception of mrb. Mixing
will likely allow mrb to become VFR tonight. Visibilities will likely drop
back to IFR this evening due to low level moisture staying in place.
VFR conditions Monday and Monday night.
VFR conditions expected early Tuesday...sub-VFR possible Tuesday night
through Wednesday night in precipitation.
light winds from high pressure will stay parked over the
area this morning. A southerly flow will briefly channel up the main
Stem of the day Sunday afternoon but likely remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
The flow will turn toward the northwest behind the front by Monday.
Small Craft Advisory gusts possible Monday behind the cold front in northwest flow. Winds
expected to be 10kt or less Monday night.
Winds will pick up prior to cold frontal passage with Small Craft Advisory possible
beginning late Tuesday night and continuing through frontal passage
on Wednesday night.
District of Columbia...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 am this morning to 3 am EST
Monday for dcz001.
Maryland...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST Monday for mdz501.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 am this morning to 3 am EST
Monday for mdz013-014-016>018-503>506.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 am EST Monday for mdz003-004-
Winter Storm Warning from 7 am this morning to 3 am EST Monday
Virginia...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST Monday for vaz503.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 am this morning to 3 am EST
Monday for vaz052>054-506.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 am EST Monday for vaz028-031-
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 am this morning to 7 PM EST
this evening for vaz055>057.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST Monday for wvz501-503-
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for wvz055-
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 am EST Monday for wvz050>053-