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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
356 am EDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015


High pressure will build overhead today before moving off the
coast tonight and Thursday. A warm front will setup over the
northern middle-Atlantic Thursday night and Friday. A cold front
will move through the region Friday night. High pressure will
return for Sunday.


Near term /today/...

As of 07z...1019mb surface high is over southern Ohio. This high will slowly
strengthen as it shifts east overhead through midday today. Northerly/northwesterly
flow will ease through the morning hours...becoming light and
variable this afternoon. The high shifts offshore this evening...
becoming a Bermuda high Thursday. Upper ridge axis shifts east across
the middle-Atlantic late tonight through Thursday morning. Return flow
tonight and Thursday slowly returns moisture to the area. Positive vorticity advection ahead
of the next trough allows chance probability of precipitation for the Allegheny
Highlands late Thursday.

Maximum temperatures generally middle to upper 50s today with low 60s around kcho
where more mixing is expected as the high passes.


Short term /tonight through Thursday/...

Min temperatures middle to upper 30s tonight as light return flow limits
ideal radiational cooling under clear skies.

Thursday is warm and dry with southwesterly flow increasing around the
developing Bermuda high. Fire weather threat again that day (see fire
weather section below). Continued going above guidance for maximum temperatures
with low to middle 70s west and south from District of Columbia with middle to upper 60s for
central MD/Baltimore.


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...

Thursday night a cold fnt will stretch from New York state across Ohio to MO. In the
middle Atlantic this will lead to a warm night west/ lows in the 50s west/ chance probability of precipitation
across the western part of the forecast area. It appears that low pressure will
develop along the fnt over Kentucky Friday. This will keep the fnt from pushing
through the area...and while it will be M cloudy Friday it will also be warm
west/ much of the area expeceted to climb into the 70s during the afternoon.

The fnt is expeceted to finally move through the area Friday night. Have incrsd
probability of precipitation to 70 Friday aftn/ngt. Isolated thunder will also be possible.

High pressure will build back into the area Sat. Expect a brzy/M sunny
day west/ highs back into the 50s.

High pressure settles over the area sun. Lighter winds west/ afternoon temperatures
climbing back into the 60s.

Next chance of rain looks to be Tue/Wed.


Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/...

High pressure builds through midday today before drifting offshore
this evening and becomes a Bermuda high Thursday. Northwesterly flow eases
through the morning...light and variable this afternoon before
becoming southerly this evening through Thursday. Possible southwesterly gusts to
20 knots Thursday.

The next chance for sub VFR conds looks to be late Friday/Friday night west/ a
cold frontal passage. Rain shower/isolated thunderstorms possible. High pressure returns for Sat.
Gusty west-northwest winds expeceted. Xclnt flying conds expeceted Sunday.



Small Craft Advisory for most waters until noon as high pressure builds overhead.
Light and variable flow this afternoon before becoming southerly tonight.
Winds increase Thursday with an Small Craft Advisory starting late Thursday morning
continuing through the afternoon.

Rain shower/isolated thunderstorms possible on the waters late Friday/Friday night. High pressure building
back into the Sat will likely lead to the issuance of an Small Craft Advisory. No probs
expeceted Sunday.


Fire weather...

Southerly/southwesterly flow around developing Bermuda high becomes gusty Thursday
with high temperatures into the 70s for most of the area. Greatest
fire threat is in central Virginia where winds and highest
temperatures mix.

Sat looks to be a brzy/possibly windy day. Depending upon how much
rain falls Friday night will determine how much of a fire threat exists


Lwx watches/warnings/advisories...
District of Columbia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for anz531>534-537-
Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT early this morning for



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