Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
856 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013
Synopsis...
an upper level low will lift northeast of the area through
tonight. Canadian high pressure builds in for the Memorial Day
weekend. A warm front is expected to move through on Tuesday.
&&
Near term /through Saturday/...
still plenty of cold air advection ongoing...between lopres over Cape Cod and
hipres over the Great Lakes. Back edge of solid stcu deck stretches from
fdk- dca-ezf...with addtl cldcvr across the ptmc Highlands and the
northern shen valley. Expect skies to clear overnight per 18z guidance.
While gusts will diminish some this evening...winds will not
decouple given tight gradient under a cold advection regime. This
will keep temperatures from falling like a rock but the air mass
change itself will bring a chilly night. With wind do not expect
frost issues...but minima in the lower 30s over The Highlands
supports the freeze warning. Latest guidance support going min-T forecast.
Sunshine will make a return on Saturday but it will be another
windy day as low pressure deepens off the New England coast and
high pressure builds in from the west. Winds may be similar to
Friday. Saturday will be another below normal day for temperatures
as well...however with sunshine and downsloping flow this should
help boost temperatures in the upper 60s for most areas except the
higher elevations.
&&
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
Canadian high pressure builds in for the remainder of the Memorial
Day weekend...moving off the coast on Memorial Day Monday.
Temperatures will moderate through the period...returning close to
climatology Memorial Day. Expect mostly clear skies much of the time but
in a west/northwest flow aloft there may be some high clouds from
time to time.
&&
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
a warm front is expected to lift north on Tuesday...and models are
in good agreement with an upper ridge building during the middle to
late week. This will allow the warming trend to continue through
the weekend...with maxima likely well in the 80s Wednesday and
beyond. Under the ridge...thunderstorm chances look very low
although there could be a few diurnally driven storms over the
mountains toward the end of the week.
&&
Aviation /01z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR flgt conds across the terminals. Stcu west/ bases 050-060 will dspt
overnight. Wind gusts will diminish tonight...but northwest winds g25-30 knots will
return at or below midday Sat.
High pressure builds in for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend
for no significant weather.
&&
Marine...
winds have diminished under glw criteria...but not by much. Will still
have frequent g25kt tonight...W/ occasional g30kt. Small Craft Advisory in effect...which
continues into Saturday night. Could have a period of near gales
on Saturday...but confidence still too low to raise at this time.
High pressure builds in for less wind Sunday into early next week.
&&
Lwx watches/warnings/advisories...
District of Columbia...none.
Maryland...freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am EDT Saturday for mdz501.
Virginia...freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am EDT Saturday for vaz503.
WV...freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am EDT Saturday for wvz501-503-
505.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT Sunday for anz530>534-
537>543.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for anz535-536.
&&
$$
