Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
842 PM EDT Thursday Aug 28 2014
high pressure over Michigan will track toward the northeastern
U.S. Friday...anchoring off the coast into the weekend. A warm
front will lift north through the area late Saturday. An active
pattern is then expected Sunday through the middle of next week.
Near term /through Friday/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes shifts east across the
northern middle-Atlantic Friday morning before heading offshore for the
weekend. Northerly flow will become northeasterly Friday morning and become
onshore Friday night. Near normal temperatures.
Short term /Friday night through Sunday/...
this weekend high pressure heads out to sea Saturday with return
flow aided by low pressure over the Great Lakes. A warm front moves
through the County Warning Area late Saturday with low chance probability of precipitation west of I-95. Positive vorticity advection
ahead of the Great Lakes trough brings likely probability of precipitation Piedmont and west
(high chances east) for Sunday. Gulf moisture plume of 2 inch precipitable waters
and any lingering boundaries or training storms would cause flood
concerns. Increased quantitative precipitation forecast for now. Later shifts will need to
consider wording in the severe weather potential statement.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
southerly flow will continue across the middle Atlantic as high
pressure stays anchored to the east. Flow aloft will become southwesterly as
the subtropical ridge moves off the southeast coast. Disturbances are
expected to move in the SW flow aloft resulting in the chance of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night. A Lee trough will likely
set up as well leading to a mechanism to initiate convection. This
setup will continue through the start of the work week. A cold front
is prognosticated to move through the region Tuesday evening. Showers and
thunderstorms expected in the vicinity of the front. High pressure
and will move into the region Wednesday night and Thursday leading
to dry conditions and temperatures near normal.
Aviation /01z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR into Saturday as high pressure over the Great Lakes moves
across the northern middle-Atlantic tonight and offshore Friday. Onshore
flow Friday night...becoming southerly Saturday night. Warm front with
chances for thunderstorms Saturday...then an upper level
disturbance Sunday with greater coverage and potentially heavy
thunderstorms. Daily chances for thunderstorms next week as the
hot/humid pattern continues.
No problems foreseen on the waters overnight or Friday.
Northerly flow tonight as high pressure pushes east across the northern
mid-Atlantic...then onshore tomorrow through Saturday as high
pressure remains offshore. Southerly return flow Saturday night after a
warm front. Scattered thunderstorms Sunday. Daily chances for
thunderstorms next week as the hot/humid pattern continues.
District of Columbia...none.