Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
852 PM EST Tuesday Nov 24 2015
high pressure will maintain overall control of the weather through
Friday. A cold front will cross the area Saturday. High pressure
will build back into the area Sunday and Monday. A low pressure
system will pass to the south on Tuesday.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
surface hipres atop County warning forecast area at this time...resulting in a rapid temperature drop under
clear skies. Have lowered min-T by up to a Cat /3-4 degf/ to keep forecast
lower than observation. A diffuse band of clouds across the middle ohvly to the
Carolinas associated west/ a weak warm front. While the core of the warm air advection will be
northwest of County warning forecast area...think it/ll be enough to keep temperatures from hitting dewpoints.
High pressure dominating feature Wednesday resulting in dry conditions.
The center of the high nudges to the northeast...increasing winds
from the S- southeast and leading to warm air advection for the mid-Atlantic. Highs
rebounding to right around normal.
Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday night/...
high pressure will dominate through Thursday night even as the
center continues drifting east off the New England coast.
Southeasterly flow on the southwestern flank of the high may try
to bring ocean moisture and bank it up against the mountains
resulting in low clouds and drizzle...but guidance is mixed and
for now have not pulled forecast fully in that direction yet.
Temperatures will continue gradual warming trend...with middle-upper
50s on Thursday for highs. Lows Wednesday night will be near
normals with near freezing rural areas and closer to 40 urban
centers...then rise 10 more degrees on Thursday night with
southeasterly flow combined with increasing cloud cover.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
high pressure will drift eastward further into the northwestern
Atlantic Friday as a cold front swings toward the area. The front
will weaken as it drops into the area by Saturday...with
cloudiness and somewhat cooler conditions expected.
The front will stall just south of the area during the second
half of the weekend as high pressure slides to the north of the
area. Meanwhile...a large cutoff upper-level low pressure system
will remain stuck under a building ridge over the western Continental U.S..
when exactly parts or all of this low eject eastward...the
eventual track/strength and the availability of cold air all
remain in question at this time. But increasing storminess and
somewhat cooler temperatures still appear a likely trend into
early next week.
Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions expected through Friday. Winds have dcpld for the
night...but will become southeast later Wednesday and persist through
Friday--generally less than 15 kts.
Sub-VFR likely Friday-Sat night west/ lower ceilings/possible -shra along and
ahead of approaching cold front. Wind southwesterly 10-15 knots becoming northwesterly
light/variable winds on the waters at this time. Latest WRF guidance suggesting an Ely
wind will pick up overnight as a warm front approaches. Winds generally less
than 10 kts tonight and Wednesday...becoming southeast and
possibly increasing to 15 kts Thursday and Thursday night.
Wind gusts in southerly to southwesterly flow ahead of a cold
front Friday night could approach Small Craft Advisory levels. Higher gusts more
probable Saturday in northwesterly flow behind the front.
a developing southeasterly flow will result in increasing water
levels along the Chesapeake Bay shore through the latter half of
the week. Full moon Wednesday...which is helping the cause by producing
high astro tides. Minor coastal flooding is possible as early as
District of Columbia...none.