Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
106 am EDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Synopsis...
offshore high pressure will continue to bring warm moist southerly
air into the region through Thursday. Afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are possible each day. A cold front will pass
through the region Thursday night into Friday. Cooler conditions
are expected over the weekend.
&&
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
line of thunderstorms has weaken over the eastern part of the state.
Light fog possible aftr overnight...most prevalent right b4 sunrise and
then quickly burning off. Lows in the 60s xcpt l70s in the
cities.
&&
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Thursday/...
County warning forecast area will be warm sector through period...as surface high well off eastern Seaboard
aids southerly flow/moisture advection. Thus air mass will remain unstable...W/
probability of precipitation gnly increasing in response to dropping middle level heights. Will still
have a diurnal trend to storms. Thursday looks to be the better day in
terms of thunderstorms and rain development as cold front/upper low drops through Great Lakes. Have
raised probability of precipitation both days and introduced lklys on Thursday.
Storm Prediction Center has western Maryland/Highlands outlooked in slt risk Thursday ahead of the cold
fnt.
&&
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
cold front passage Thursday night. Aftr that the next several days looking good as Canadian
high pressure builds in with temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal.
Shortwave over the Tennessee Valley on Sunday should remain west of the lwx
County Warning Area...will have to monitor for increased probability of precipitation. As of now expect
some high clouds Sunday with a warming trend starting that
continues into middle next week.
&&
Aviation /05z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR conds at all terminals. Expect areas of low clouds/fog to develop
lt tonight...continuing into the Wednesday morning push but dissipating aftr
sunrise. This time have leaned more toward fog development inland since
skies will be prtly clear supporting radl cooling down to moist
dewpoints. However low clouds will be lurking just east of dca/BWI.
Diurnal thunderstorm activity Wednesday/Thursday with IFR conds possible in
the heaviest ones. Southerly flow until a cold frontal passage Thursday night. Northwesterly
flow with clear conds Saturday. Just some high clouds on Sunday.
&&
Marine...
..update to add Small Craft Advisory overnight and this morning
for the Maryland Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the lower
tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island. The previous discussion
follows...
The pressure gradient will strengthen over the region
Wednesday afternoon and night as lopres moves through the Great Lakes and hipres
remains parked over the western Atlantic. Southerly return flow will
increase accordingly between both systems. A Small Craft Advisory GOES in effect
Wednesday afternoon for the waters that are most prone to southerly channeling in
the middle chesepeake Bay and Lower/Middle tidal Potomac River. Small Craft Advisory expands Wednesday
night to include all of the Maryland chesepeake Bay as a southerly nocturnal jet
develops.
Southerly flow with high pressure offshore ahead of a cold front that
comes through Thursday night. Southerly channeling to 20 knots possible Wednesday
evening...and Thursday. Northwesterly flow to 20 knots possible Friday. Light
and variable flow this weekend.
&&
Tides/coastal flooding...
expect positive tidal anomalies to develop during the midweek as southerly
flow strengthens. Cbofs guidance...which has verified fairly well of
late...forecast water levels to stay below minor coastal flooding
thresholds through at least Thursday morning.
Cold front moves through early Friday morning. Westerly winds behind the front
should erase any positive tidal anomalies.
&&
Lwx watches/warnings/advisories...
District of Columbia...none.
Maryland...none.
Virginia...none.
WV...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 am EDT
Thursday for anz530-531-539.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 am EDT
Thursday for anz532-536-540-542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Thursday for anz533-534-
537-541-543.
&&
$$
Update...lasorsa
