Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
356 am EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015
A weak frontal boundary extends from Delaware to Georgia. Low
pressure is expected to develop along this boundary and remain near
the middle Atlantic for the remainder of the workweek. High pressure is
expected to slide into the region this weekend.
Near term /today/...
Surface analysis shows a weak boundary extending from southern New Jersey...tracking east of the blu ridge/
aplchns southward to Georgia. This will keep the middle Atlantic in clouds today...but
for the time being the 1st round of MDT/heavy rain has moved to the north.
Periods of rain will be possible today...but thankfully these should be light
given the fact that both dca and BWI broke rafl records for 6/1.
Aftr a period of very warm temperatures today should be below normal west/ highs in
Short term /tonight/...
Tonight again looks wet west/ the boundary remaining over the middle Atlantic. High pressure
over New England will create somewhat of a damming situ across the
middle Atlantic. Erly low level flow will funnel moisture from the Atlantic. Have
incrsd probability of precipitation to Cat east of the mountains it is certainly possible that a fld
or flash fld watch will need to be issued for late tngt/Wed.
Lows ranging from the m50s to the lm60s.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...mid-upper level closed low
over eastern Tennessee will move slowly east-northeast while weakening. Surface boundary will
remain draped along the coast and across Nevada/Virginia border. Warm moist
air being lifted above shallow cool air and highly diffluent upper
level flow will result in another round of MDT to heavy rain with
1 to 3 inches of rain likely across northern and central Virginia Wednesday and Thursday.
Heaviest rains expected over albermarle...Nelson counties and the
Interstate 64 corridor. Flooding is again possible but given
relatively lull expected today no Flood Watch will be issued at
Closed low weakens by Friday and surface boundary begins to wash out. Middle-
level drying will begin to get entrained into the County Warning Area beginning
Thursday night ending the heavy rain threat but cloudy and showery
conditions will likely persist through the weekend.
Aviation /08z Tuesday through Saturday/...
Next 24 hours of the forecast will feature xtnsv cloud cover...most likely in
the MVFR range but possibly dropping lower. Periods of rain area possible today...
west/ incrsg likelihood late tonight.
MVFR and possible even IFR conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday in
moderate to heavy rains. Conditions improve somewhat Friday into the
weekend but clouds will be plentiful.
North to northeast winds are expected to increase behind the
front this afternoon tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for the Maryland Chesapeake Bay and lower tidal Potomac during
District of Columbia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 am EDT Wednesday
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 am EDT
Wednesday for anz536.