Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
827 PM EST Friday Jan 30 2015
high pressure will build across the region for the first half of
the weekend. Low pressure will impact the area late Sunday into
Monday. High pressure will return for the first half of next week.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
upper trough has swung east of the County Warning Area this evening. Fairly well
aligned northwest winds are in place. Tightest gradient and core
of the gusty winds reside across the Washington-Baltimore metropolitan
area. Continue to see 35 to 40 knots gusts...and will continue Wind
Advisory in this area. Further west...gradient is not at tight
with high pressure located over the Ohio Valley. Have cancelled
Wind Advisory west of the Blue Ridge. However...enough wind and
very cold temperatures will allow wind chill values to dip near 10
below over the Potomac Highlands. Therefore issued a Wind Chill
Advisory for The Highlands.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through 6 PM Saturday/...
Sat high pressure over the area. East of The Highlands highs should climb
into the 30s.
Long term /Saturday night through Friday/...
zonal flow will be over the area Saturday night ahead of the next
approaching shortwave trough in the plains...while surface high pressure
slides off the southeast coast. Little of note other than increasing middle
and high level clouds. Lows generally in the 20s.
The low pressure system will take shape over the Ohio Valley on
Sunday. Isentropic lift may allow some light snow to begin to break
out...especially during the afternoon and along the Maryland/PA border.
Column aloft will be cold enough for snow...but surface temperatures will try
to edge above freezing and in fact may rise above 40 degree south of
US-50...so some rain may mix in with southern extent. Quantitative precipitation forecast will
be very light though and where snow does fall...amounts would likely
be less than an inch.
30.12z model suite has held serve with the track of the low pressure
Sunday night...with even the colder Canadian solution now on the
northward trend. Per collab with wpc...this seems to be a stable
trend...and if anything may end up being a bit further north. This
sends the track of the surface low right over The Heart of the County Warning Area and
diminishes the probability of a more significant snow. This also seems
reasonable since there is not a strong blocking high positioned to
the north...rather an extension of a high over the plains.
Temperatures likely hold fairly steady Sunday night. Greatest chance
for accumulating snow will be along the M-d line and in the Potomac
Highlands. Southern County Warning Area may eventually become all rain. In between
the concern would be for a little mix of everything...and will have
to watch out for models trying to keep temperatures too warm on an
overnight precipitation event with in-situ cad/cold air locking in place in
the climatology favored areas. This could result in freezing rain where models
depict it being warm enough for only rain. Do have some minor ice
accums from Shenandoah Valley up to and along the M-d line...where
even they will likely mix some and limit snow totals. District of Columbia/balt metros
are right on the edge...so please keep track of the latest forecasts
as the exact track of the low is fine tuned. Will hold off on
issuing any sort of watch on this forecast issuance due to the low
confidence...long lead time...and only marginal amounts for warning
criteria on the northern tier of the County Warning Area.
A low pressure system near metropolitan d.C. Will quickly move offshore the
East Coast by midday Monday. The threat for a period of accumulating
snow or perhaps a mix of rain and snow exists for the region
throughout the day...especially over the eastern half. High and low
temperatures Monday and Monday night will average 10 to 15 degrees
below normal...especially late Monday through Monday night with lows
bottoming out near zero or single digits. As for precipitation
Monday night...there is a chance for some good upslope snowfall in
the Potomac Highlands.
High pressure will dominate the region Tuesday and Tuesday
night...bringing dry conditions. Temperatures will remain nearly 10
degrees below normal.
A cold front will sag south out of the Great Lakes Wednesday and
Wednesday night before pushing across the region Thursday.
There is a chance of some light snow or a mix of snow and
rain...mainly Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures Wednesday
through Thursday will not be as cold as recent days...but will still
Aviation /01z Saturday through Wednesday/...
main impact continues to be wind this evening. Gusts at or above 35 knots may
continue for the next few hours...then should gradually diminish
overnight/early Saturday morning as high pressure begins to build
in from the west. VFR expected through the taf valid period.
IFR conditions possible from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night
as low pressure crosses the area. A mix of precipitation types
will be likely at all terminals.
IFR or LIFR conditions could start the day Monday with periods of
light snow across the terminals. There could be a little rain mix in
near cho. Conditions should become MVFR by the afternoon before
improving to VFR late in the day. Winds SW becoming northwest less than 10
knots early Monday then increasing northwest 15 knots with gusts 20 to 30
knots midday Monday and Monday afternoon.
VFR conditions Monday night and Tuesday. Winds continuing northwest 15
knots gusts 20 to 30 knots Monday before diminishing north becoming S at
5 to 10 knots Tuesday.
gales continue over the waters this evening...with a peak wind
gust of 39kt last hour at tplm2. Gale Warning continues overnight.
Eventually this will be downgraded to a Small Craft Advisory but
there is some uncertainty as to when gales will end. It/S possible
they continue until Saturday morning...at least over the lower Maryland
Bay. If that/S the case the gale would need to be extended.
Otherwise...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Saturday.
Winds are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria from Saturday
night through Sunday night. Low pressure will bring mixed
precipitation...especially the upper Potomac and Northern
Bay...Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Small craft advisories are likely Monday afternoon through Monday
No marine hazards expected Tuesday.
District of Columbia...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for dcz001.
Maryland...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for mdz004>006-011-
Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am EST Saturday
Virginia...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for vaz040-051>055-
Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am EST Saturday
WV...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am EST Saturday
Marine...Gale Warning until 4 am EST Saturday for anz530>543.