Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
314 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Short term...
analysis of the 12z upa data shows that the ridge continues to
slowly settle over the area although heights are starting to fall
just a bit compared to the same time yesterday. Decent cumulus field has
developed across the area this afternoon and is a bit more expansive
compared to yesterday. With the ridge on top of US resulting in
subsidence and deeper moisture too far west and east of US...it
appears that chances for any storm development are slim to none.
RUC/hrrr/and arw-west are all still trying to generate scattered
storms this afternoon while the NAM/GFS/ttu WRF keep things dry.
Will go with no probability of precipitation for tonight across the forecast area with mild
temperatures for morning lows Friday. Highs have been problematic
the last couple of days...MOS guidance has been consistently
overdoing temperatures by 3-5 degrees across the region. Verification
numbers show that by far the best performing fields for temperatures
have been either the bias corrected consensus raw or weighted model
fields and have opted to go with the weighted models for highs
tomorrow. This keeps temperatures in the middle to upper 90s for The Caprock
with 99 to 102 for the rolling plains.

Jordan

&&

Long term...
the extended forecast may start off hot and dry...but will end
dramatically different as cooler and wetter conditions are
anticipated.

The upper Air Ridge will continue to be a dominating synoptic feature on
Saturday...though it will be less amplified courtesy of an upper air low
system that will translate east across southern Canada. Despite a
flatter upper Air Ridge...the slight uptick in middle-upper level thickness
values and 850 mb temperatures ranging between 27-32 degrees c suggest hot
temperatures will endure /upper 90s to lower triple digit readings/.
Relatively weak embedded impulses will round the upper Air Ridge and aid to
ignite storms across NE New Mexico Saturday evening. A few model
solutions show the precipitation activity possible nearing the far SW Texas
Panhandle by the evening...though very weak steering flow will
likely maintain the activity across the panhandles and eastern New
Mexico.

Late weekend into early next week...the aforementioned upper air low will
dive southeast across the Great Lakes region thus causing the upper Air Ridge to
retrograde towards the desert SW. As such...northwest flow aloft will
sharpen. The NAM is a bit quicker in showing this evolution and as a
result...is quicker in depicting the arrival of a cold front and
associated precipitation Sunday evening. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) on the other
hand are a tad slower on all counts...thereby showing the cold front
and precipitation impinging on the forecast area late Sunday night/early Monday
morning. Hence...a few details still needs to be hashed out.
Nonetheless...a cooler and wetter trend is still being exhibited
next week...as mountainous convection across New Mexico could
propagate across the region thanks to northwest flow aloft and the presence
of a cold passage. Furthermore...another cold front is being
depicted on Wednesday and with precipitable waters enduring above 1.00
inch...additional rain can not be ruled out. Will therefore maintain
the inherited slight chance/chance probability of precipitation commencing Sunday
night-Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness and rain chances will have an
effect on temperatures...with highs in the upper 80s to lower to middle 90s
expected for next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 66 98 66 98 66 / 0 0 10 10 10
Tulia 68 96 68 98 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
Plainview 67 95 67 97 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
Levelland 68 97 67 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 10
Lubbock 70 99 70 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 10
Denver City 67 96 66 98 68 / 0 0 0 0 10
Brownfield 68 98 68 99 69 / 0 0 0 0 10
Childress 72 100 72 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 10
spur 70 99 69 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 10
Aspermont 72 102 73 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

14/29

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations