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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
305 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Short term...
high pressure remains firmly in control across the area. A weakness
in the high is noted along the Texas Gulf Coast and monsoonal fetch
is located to our west. In between these features...large scale
subsidence continues. High resolution data depicts a dry picture
for the short term and have no reason to diverge from this thinking.
Convection should once again fire across New Mexico but remain well
to the west. Temperatures wont change much but we should see some
increasing high clouds into tonight.

Long term...
the rather stagnate synoptic pattern least an upper Air Ridge stretched from SW to NE prevailed across
the Southern Plains early this morning. The said upper Air Ridge is still
prognosticated to shift just enough east of the County Warning Area by the end of this week
to perhaps allow the monsoonal moisture off to our west /with an
additional Pacific moisture contribution from Tropical Depression
Fourteen-east though the brunt of it will remain to our west/ to
impinge on the far western and northwestern zones Friday through the weekend.
This slug of Pacific moisture coupled with a nearby surface trough and
daytime destabilization may result in chances of showers and
thunderstorms across the aforementioned areas. Thereafter...the upper Air
Ridge will retrograde back to the region by early next week...though
may quickly become Delaware-amplified whilst shifting a bit south of the
forecast area courtesy of an a northwest Pacific disturbance tracking east-northeast across the
High Plains and towards the northern plains/southern Canada. With
perhaps another tropical depression across the eastern Pacific
rounding the southwestern periphery of the upper Air Ridge...being concurrent
with a cold front pushing south to across the Texas Panhandle
Monday/Tuesday...suggests that chances for precipitation is plausible
/especially across the northern zones/. It is however too early to say
with definitive confidence that the upper Air Ridge will indeed flatten
out and shift south...because it could remain unchanged and
persist across the Southern Plains thus mitigating storm
potential. The super-blended solution depiction of slight chance
probability of precipitation across most of the County Warning Area Monday-Tuesday appears valid
at this time...but may need to be amended if things do not go according to
what the recent model runs are showing.

Seasonably warm temperatures /80s and 90s/ followed by overnight lows in
the lower 60s across the far SW Texas Panhandle to the upper 60s to
lower 70s across the far rolling anticipated throughout
the extended period.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 91 63 91 63 / 10 10 10 10
Tulia 91 63 91 64 / 0 0 0 10
Plainview 91 64 91 64 / 0 0 0 10
Levelland 91 63 92 66 / 0 0 0 10
Lubbock 92 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 10
Denver City 91 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 10
Brownfield 91 64 93 67 / 0 0 0 10
Childress 96 70 96 70 / 0 0 0 10
spur 94 67 94 70 / 0 0 0 10
Aspermont 97 70 96 72 / 0 0 0 10


Lub watches/warnings/advisories...



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