Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
631 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015
added low end probability of precipitation across the southwestern South Plains to handle
the convection which has developed across eastern New Mexico.
Environment is not overly favorable for much strengthening though
will carefully monitor trends as the small complex approaches
Cochran and Yoakum counties.
VFR to persist next 24 hours. A less than 5 percent chance of thunderstorms
affecting klbb this evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 315 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015/
fairly uneventful weather expected in the short term. Visible Sat shows
convection firing over the higher terrain of southeastern nm that is
slowly pushing eastward rather slowly /8 kts or less/ due to the
weak steering currents associated with the upper level ridge. The
weak steering flow should help prevent convection from making it to
our southwestern zones as outflow should easily outrun the storms.
What may play a part in some afternoon convection would be a dryline
feature across eastern nm near the Texas state line which is showing up
on surface observation as well as radar imagery. Visible shows some cumulus
development along this line but is staying mostly shallow in height
with the exception of cumulus in east central Roosevelt County and north
central Lea County. The only model to develop convection along this
line is the hrrr which has been consistent with run to run through
the day. Visual ob via the local office webcam has show this line to
be anything but impressive with development. For now probability of precipitation will be
kept out of the forecast as convective development is not
Overnight lows will be mild...low/mid 60s on The Caprock to upper
60s across the rolling plains...with slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow
afternoon as height thicknesses increase across the region thanks to
the overhead ridge. MOS guidance has come down a great bit with
highs tomorrow...94 vs 99. Highs will still be kept just below
guidance in line with the previous forecast as surface moisture will
help keep temperatures from rising to the middle to upper 90s.
an upper Air Ridge flexing its muscles a bit across the Southern Plains
will be the dominate synoptic feature for most of the extended
period. Despite the presence of a dryline and decent low level
moisture /pwats of 0.40-1.00 inch/ Thursday-Monday...the strength of
the aforementioned upper Air Ridge proves to be strong enough to mitigate
significant chances of precipitation. Although...a stray shower/storm
developing along the dryline on any given day is certainly plausible...
pending adequate surface convergence...but a precipitation mention will
remain void at this time. Furthermore...one would think that temperatures will
soar to unbearable warmth given the proximity of the upper Air
Ridge...but that will not be the case given the amount of rainfall
this region has received last moth /seasonal norms of upper 80s to
lower 90s as depicted by the super-blended solution/. The 12z mex
guidance temperatures is very similar...which is a quite a change from
what the previous run was showing /middle-upper 90s/.
By early to middle-week next week...long term solutions hint at a
Pacific upper air low bearing down on central/southern cali and rounding the upper Air
Ridge to the north...thus translating to the northern/High Plains. As
such...the upper Air Ridge across the region will beak down a bit whilst
shifting slightly south of the area. With a prognosticated tropical system
moving NE from the Baja California of cali...it could get close enough to aid
in increasing large scale ascent just enough for perhaps storms to
return to the region /perhaps initially across the northern and western
zones/. Whether or not this will come into fruition is a bit hard to
say being this is day 7 and beyond we are referring to.
However...will continue to monitor later model runs and see if
solutions are consistently showing this evolution of the synoptic
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 60 94 61 93 / 0 10 0 10
Tulia 63 92 63 92 / 0 0 0 10
Plainview 63 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 10
Levelland 64 95 64 93 / 10 0 0 10
Lubbock 65 93 65 92 / 10 0 0 10
Denver City 63 96 63 94 / 10 0 0 10
Brownfield 65 96 64 93 / 10 0 0 10
Childress 67 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
spur 66 92 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
Aspermont 68 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 0