Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
1126 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016

Aviation...
light east to southeast winds ensued tonight and will prevail
overnight...possibly leading to the development of MVFR fog and/or
MVFR ceilings. Still debatable whether or not there will be enough low
level moisture for either phenomena to generate but with low
clouds and fog having formed well north of all three
terminals...makes it plausible. By late Saturday morning...winds
will veer to the south southwest with speeds of 14-16 kts or so
leading to the scouring out of any lingering clouds and/or
fog...and few-scattered VFR ceilings passing overhead.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 334 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016/

Short term...
a front that has passed through the region earlier today has shifted
winds to the east-northeast across much of the forecast area. This wind pattern
will persist overnight into tomorrow afternoon at which time surface
high pressure over the northern Great Plains will shift eastward to
near the Great Lakes region and a Lee trough will develop helping to turn
winds to a more southerly direction. These east-northeast winds will
allow for low stratus and fog development across much of the rolling
plains and South Plains early tomorrow morning and persist into the
late morning hours. The extent of how thick the fog will get is
still uncertain as exactly how much moisture will be at hand is
unknown. The NAM is the most bullish showing MOS Cat 1 ceilings and
visibility while the GFS keeps things on the clear side. As of now
it does not appear the fog will be dense as most of the moisture
will come from upsloping with little to no moisture transport from
the Gomex.

Winds will veer to the southwest tomorrow afternoon as the Lee trough
puts more influence at the surface which will push out any fog and
stratus and allow for temperatures to warm back up to the upper 60s/low
70s. The one exception will be the northern rolling plains where
temperatures are expected to remain in the low 60s...possibly upper
50s...as veering of the winds will happen there later than the rest
of the forecast area. Aldrich

Long term...
mostly dry northwest flow aloft Sunday to Wednesday...then
switching to southwest Wednesday and Thursday allowing temperatures to
soar.

Another round of low stratus and/or patchy fog is expected early
Sunday morning...mainly across the eastern half of the forecast
area as west winds and drier air behind a pre-frontal tough
pushes east across The Caprock in advance of a cold front coming
in from the north. The cold front will move through during the
day Sunday with modest north-northeast breezes through
midday...then slackening during the afternoon. Temperatures won't be
affected much at all with Sunday/S highs still in the 60s. A
shortwave trough will slide southeast through the Southern Plains Sunday
night into Monday morning...with some minor lift brushing our
northeast counties. There is a small precipitation signal in this area
around 12 UTC Monday morning...but the forecast moisture profile
does not appear to support more than a temporary increase in middle-
level cloud cover so we have kept a dry forecast for now. Minor
fronts Monday and Tuesday should keep temperatures relatively
flat...with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Then...low-amplitude
shortwave-ridging Wednesday transitioning to southwesterly flow
aloft on Thursday will result in warmer temperatures with highs in the
70s Wednesday and upper 70s and lower 80s Thursday. An upper
trough passing across the southern rockies Friday is currently
expected to track too far north to affect our weather much other
than to create breezy conditions with another minor frontal
passage. Fire weather concerns may be rekindled Thursday depending
on the strength of the winds.

&&

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

29

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations