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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
942 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

Aviation...
although VFR conditions will dominate terminals through the
forecast period...scattered convection moving south out of the
Texas Panhandle and across the South Plains and rolling plains
tonight will be a threat to aviation interests. Strength and
extent of convection through the night still remains a question.

The greatest probability of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will be at kcds followed by
kpvw and klbb. Primary terminal concern will be MVFR visibilities due to
thunderstorms and rain. Jh
&&

Previous discussion... /issued 329 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015/

Short term...
unstable atmosphere will continue in weakly forced environment
tonight and Friday. Weak ill defined front located across the
northern South Plains and southern Panhandle this afternoon.
Shortwave moving southeast through northwesterly flow aloft has aided a few
showers across the southern Panhandle and the Palo Duro Canyon.
This activity will likely remain sub severe as it moves southeast toward
the rolling plains this afternoon. Some high res models are
initiating convection later today /after 00z/ near or just west of
the nm border. Coverage is likely to be limited...but better
chance across the northern South Plains and southern Panhandle in
more favorable thermodynamic environment...thus generally 30-40
percent probability of precipitation will be maintained there. Weak boundary will dissipate
Friday...but axis of instability will remain along tail end of
short wave trough to the east. This is expected to be again across
the southern Panhandle and northern South Plains. Thus isolated to
scattered thunderstorms possible...although less coverage will be reflected in
slightly lower probability of precipitation for Friday afternoon. A little cooler Friday
with highs from middle 80s SW Panhandle to lower 90s southern rolling
plains.

Long term...
the forecast through Sunday morning will depend on how good the
models handle any weak shortwaves move over or near the area in
northwest flow aloft. It currently looks like the fourth will be
dry across the area as flow aloft weakens and no major shortwaves
will be across the area. There could be some precipitation early
in the morning on the 4th depending on how things evolve Friday
night. Kept a sliver of slight chance probability of precipitation across the rolling
plains for Saturday where there is some meager instability left
over and any outflow boundaries at the surface from overnight
convection could help initiate new convection.

The ridge that has been over or near the area will flatten out a
bit for the first part of next week as a strong northern stream
system moves across the Canadian/U.S. Border. This wave will
result in the development of a cold front that will try to make a
run into the area on Monday. Models continue to differ on the
timing and strength but they do agree that the front should at
least be as far south as the Texas Panhandle by Monday afternoon.
Good surface flow from the south to southeast along with an influx
of middle-level moisture and a possible shortwave coming over the top
of the ridge indicate that rain chances could be pretty good
Monday into Tuesday. It does appear that the models are suffering
some convective feedback in the vorticity fields which is
impacting how strong the shortwave could potentially be. Opted to
keep the highest probability of precipitation right around 50 percent than some of the 60
probability of precipitation superblend was producing because of the possible feedback
issue. Other thing the front and precipitation will do is help
cool high temperatures back down below normal for Tuesday and
possibly Wednesday.

Warm up will then ensue for the last few periods of the forecast
as the ridge starts to rebuild over the Panhandle and our forecast
area. Will have to see how this happens as the European model (ecmwf) is showing
some monsoon moisture under the western half of the high pressure
ridge and this may be close enough to see isolated storms make a
run into the western South Plains in the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Jordan
&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 65 84 63 87 / 50 40 40 10
Tulia 67 86 65 88 / 50 40 40 20
Plainview 67 86 65 88 / 40 30 30 10
Levelland 68 87 66 89 / 40 20 20 10
Lubbock 70 88 67 90 / 30 20 20 10
Denver City 66 87 66 89 / 30 20 10 10
Brownfield 68 87 66 89 / 30 20 10 10
Childress 73 91 72 93 / 40 40 30 20
spur 70 87 70 90 / 20 20 20 10
Aspermont 73 91 72 94 / 20 20 10 10
&&

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

02

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