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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
627 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Aviation...
VFR conditions in place at all three terminals. There are
scattered storms to the west of klbb that may collapse and result
in additional redevelopment near the terminal and opted to include
thunderstorms in the vicinity at this time. Will monitor through the next few hours to see
if we need to include ts at klbb. Kpvw may also see storms but
confidence is too low to include anything at this time. Kcds
appears to be far enough west to remain clear of any storm
chances for now...but storms are also developing to the west of
this terminal. Activity should decrease in coverage around or
shortly after midnight local time leaving behind VFR conditions at
all three taf sites.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 252 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015/

Short term...
the South Plains region will remain positioned on the northeast
flank of a relatively flat upper ridge through Monday. Good middle-
level monsoonal moisture remains trapped within and moving around
the northern portion of the ridge while surface moisture also
remains elevated. This setup will provide more opportunities for
scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight and on into Monday. It still appears the most likely region
for cirrus this afternoon will be across the western zones in closer
proximity to a surface trough...though we will also have to see if
anything can grow out of a persistent middle-level cloud field present
off The Caprock where instability levels are lower. Any activity
should generally translate eastward. Modest instability...elevated
moisture levels and limited deep-layer shear could support a few
multicells that occasionally pulse up to strong levels and produce
gusty downburst winds and locally heavy rains. Some convection could
linger or redevelop well into the night as a strengthening southerly
low level jet takes shape...and a small mesoscale convective system may even attempt to form which
could affect the northern/northeastern zones into early Monday
morning. A similar pattern should unfold again on Monday afternoon
potentially aided by a glance blow of lift from an embedded
shortwave trough moving through the Central High plains. If the
added lift is realized this could favor increased storm coverage. In
addition...mid-level westerly winds will increase modestly...though
it may be enough for a little better storm organization...at least
across the northern zones.

Long term...
precipitation that develops Monday afternoon to shift eastward across the forecast area
Monday night with the embedded shortwave trough mentioned above.
This looks to be the last good shot a precipitation for the week
as center/axis of the upper level high/ridge will shift eastward to the
Southern Plains. Before that occurs and before low to middle level
moisture moderates...there looks to be one last slight chance to
mention Tuesday afternoon across the southeastern third of the forecast area on the
eastern flank of the upper ridge that will still be centered to the
west of the forecast area. Afterwards...hot and dry are the
keywords...although will have to deal with the possibility of a
weak cold front moving into the northern part of the forecast area Friday.
Not the time of year where the models have a good handle on this
type of boundary...particularly one that must undercut a fairly
Stout upper ridge. As a result...not surprised to see the 12z
model suite generally back off on this front and its residence
time in the forecast area. Will not make significant change at this time
because in all likelihood the models will continue to struggle.
However...did follow the trend and cut back probability of precipitation some from
previous forecast.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 65 90 64 91 / 40 40 20 10
Tulia 66 90 65 93 / 40 40 40 10
Plainview 66 91 67 93 / 40 40 30 10
Levelland 67 94 67 95 / 30 40 30 10
Lubbock 69 94 71 95 / 30 30 30 10
Denver City 67 94 66 97 / 30 30 30 10
Brownfield 68 95 68 95 / 30 30 30 10
Childress 71 94 72 98 / 40 40 30 20
spur 68 96 69 95 / 30 30 30 20
Aspermont 71 98 72 100 / 20 20 20 20

&&

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

14/01/14

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