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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
936 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

quick update...primarily to adjust the sky grids through middle-
afternoon. Low clouds have spread over all but the southeast
zones as of 14z. These clouds should gradually thin/scatter though
at a slower pace than earlier anticipated. Much of the County Warning Area will
see the mostly cloudy skies persist through midday...with the
stratus deck gradually shrinking through the afternoon. Some spots
on The Caprock may not see full sun return until middle or even late
afternoon. Obviously the duration of the cloud cover could also
impact high temperatures...though with some uncertainty in exactly
where the clouds will persist the longest /and exactly how late in
the day they hang around/ we have chosen not to adjust the
temperatures grids at this time. The remainder of the forecast remains
largely on track and no additional adjustments were made.


Previous discussion... /issued 630 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015/

MVFR ceilings at klbb/kpvw should break up and lift later this
morning as southwest winds increase to 12-15 knots. Drier and
warmer conditions will ensue with these downslope breezes in
place...thus leading to prevailing VFR conditions this afternoon
through Sunday morning.

Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015/

Short term...
patchy fog across portions of the far southwestern Panhandle and
South Plains should dissipate by middle morning as turbulent mixing
commences with the onset of daytime heating. Flat ridging will build
across the intermountain west into the High Plains for the
weekend...leading to clearing skies and warming temperatures.
Surface troughing from the Front Range into the South Plains will
veer winds southwesterly as they become breezy this afternoon at 10-
20 miles per hour. These downslope breezes combined with warmer air advecting
in aloft will promote temperatures climbing into the middle 70s to near
80 on The Caprock and low-middle 80s east of the Escarpment. Low
temperatures tonight will only fall into the middle 50s to near 60
across the South Plains and low-middle 60s in the rolling plains as
winds remain elevated near 10 miles per hour owing to a respectable pressure
gradient. Fog should not be an issue tonight given a southwesterly
wind component.

Long term...
polar jet flow will remain well north of the area as upper level low
continues to meander west of Baja California. A shortwave trough just off the
coast of British Columbia will translate east while sharpening and
should be located due north of US around 00z with some hints of a
closed circulation in the middle levels. As the new low moves east
toward the Great Lakes our flow aloft will become northwesterly and
this largely should remain in place until late Thursday. At this
point...Baja California low looks to make a landfall across Southern California with
negatively tilted ridge extending from Texas up the West Coast of
Canada. How things evolve into next weekend remain less clear
though it does look predominantly dry.

Sunday continues to look breezy and rather warm and Monday looks
breezy...especially out east...and much cooler. In fact...there are
indications with light winds and low dewpoints...that we could get
into the 40s along the i27 corridor on Tuesday morning.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 77 57 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
Tulia 80 58 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
Plainview 79 59 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
Levelland 78 58 90 54 / 0 0 0 0
Lubbock 80 60 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
Denver City 79 57 89 56 / 0 0 0 0
Brownfield 77 58 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
Childress 84 63 96 60 / 0 0 0 0
spur 82 60 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
Aspermont 84 63 95 62 / 0 0 0 0


Lub watches/warnings/advisories...



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