Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
232 PM CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016
forecast area to remain under northwest upper level flow with upper level
ridging over the western Continental U.S. And a trough across the east. As the
ridge nudges eastward will see heights and increases increase as well.
This...in addition to a breezy downslope component to surface winds
Wednesday...will push temperatures to or a bit beyond warm end of MOS
guidance forecast for high temperatures. Will also favor higher end of wind
speeds for Wednesday...end result being a range of 15-25 miles per hour late
morning through afternoon.
only minor changes made to the forecast yet again as dry and warm
weather will continue through the next week. A weak cold front on
Thursday will knock down temperatures from very warm Wednesday
temperatures. Not much has changed with regard to the cool down on
Saturday. The European model (ecmwf) continues to show a stronger influx of surface
ridging during the day on Saturday keeping temperatures several
degrees cooler than the GFS. Despite a cool down...temperatures
will be at or above seasonal averages.
Models do agree in dragging a weak short wave overhead on Sunday
and associated cold front during the day on Sunday. The GFS has
come into a little better alignment with the European model (ecmwf) through middle
week. Although the GFS continues to be more aggressive...it keeps
cyclonic upper flow regulated to the western US with
ridging/northwest flow overhead.
elevated to periodic low end critical conditions
expected to develop Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures of 20-plus degrees above
seasonal norms on the strength of some breezy west winds.
However...those wind speeds likely to be mostly at or just below the
magical 20 miles per hour threshold...and will be difficult to get three hours
of critical conditions needed for a red flag warning despite the
warm temperatures and corresponding low relative humidity /bottoming out between 10 and 15