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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
605 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015

a line of scattered -tsra were moving southeast across kpvw and
towards klbb early this evening. Winds have therefore become
variable and gusting to near 35kts per kpvw latest metar...and
could see this happen at klbb as well. Have therefore elected to
insert a prevailing and a tempo for these storms at kpvw and klbb
respectively for a few hours with the added variable wind gust.
Low confidence in this activity affecting kcds...though additional
-tsra could develop near there. Will hold off inserting a precipitation
mention for kcds but will of course amend as necessary. This
activity expected to move away from the terminals later this
evening leading to VFR decks scattering out by later tonight.


Previous discussion... /issued 250 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015/

Short term...
convection across the rolling plains dissipated late this morning
leaving behind a somewhat stable environment across the eastern half
of the forecast area this afternoon. This convection developed
along a weak cold front that has stalled out across the far
northwestern South Plains. A weak surface low has also developed
across the western South Plains into eastern New Mexico in
response to a stronger jet stream diving south into the Texas
Panhandle as shown on the 12z upper-air analysis. All of these
will combine to result in an increased chance for thunderstorms
late this afternoon through this evening. Belief is that the
surface frontal boundary will serve as the focus for storm
development with weak north to northwesterly flow aloft pushing
any convection south and east through the evening. Daytime mixing
has increased the boundary layer depth and computer models place
cloud bases somewhere around 7000 feet above ground level and with bulk shear
values around 20 to 25 kts... expect to see a few strong to
possibly severe wind gusts out of the convection especially early
on. Convection may last past midnight for parts of the area as
lift from the left exit region of the jet stream moves south over
the area.

Tuesday looks to be drier and a bit warmer as subsidence settles in
behind the departing jet. Forecast soundings show there still is
some meager instability available but a lack of both forcing and
surface features to serve as initiation points precludes putting
probability of precipitation in the forecast for now. With weak subsidence over the
area...expect high temperatures to be a degree or two warmer than
today. Low temperatures will be fairly close to what we have seen
the past several days.

Long term...
northwest flow convection could easily make a return later this
week after a brief reprieve on Tuesday. This could begin as early
as Wednesday evening although better chances will exist on
Thursday and Friday evenings. A series of short wave troughs will
move from northwest to southeast through this northwest flow
driving much of the expected convection. Strong low level jets
will develop each evening from Wednesday and beyond which could
primarily lead to storms persisting through the night time and
early morning hours. We could even see a wash out for the July 4
festivities which has been know to occur. A long wave trough
diving down into the Midwest will lower heights locally. This will
lead to another stretch of below seasonal average temperatures.

Convection may have a tougher time developing Saturday and Sunday
with heights building back over the area. The persistent ridge
over the western Continental U.S. Will begin to migrate eastward over the
weekend into early next week. This may keep convection relegated
to the higher terrain of New Mexico. Although we will see building
heights...West Texas may be spared from the hottest temperatures
with the center of the ridge moving across the Central High


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 64 91 67 94 / 20 0 0 10
Tulia 65 92 69 94 / 20 0 0 0
Plainview 66 92 68 92 / 20 0 0 0
Levelland 66 92 68 93 / 30 0 0 0
Lubbock 68 92 70 93 / 30 0 0 0
Denver City 65 91 66 93 / 30 0 0 0
Brownfield 66 93 67 93 / 30 0 0 0
Childress 71 97 74 98 / 20 0 0 0
spur 68 93 70 93 / 30 0 0 0
Aspermont 71 96 73 96 / 30 0 0 0


Lub watches/warnings/advisories...



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