Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
1147 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014
VFR through the overnight with scattered/broken high clouds...winds
becoming light and variable at times as high pressure continues to
dominate the pattern.
Previous discussion... /issued 349 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014/
middle-high cloud shield in place on the eastern periphery of upper
ridge set to track back northeast toward the plains through the
weekend. Dry punch of low level air has allowed dewpoints to mix
into the 40s over select locations with more likely on the way by
the end of peak heating this afternoon into this evening.
Temperatures were mainly in the 70s on The Caprock underneath the
aforementioned cloud deck with low-middle 80s common east of the
Escarpment where more insolation was occurring. Mostly everyone
should ultimately top out in the 80s by the time all is said and
done. Light winds will prevail tonight underneath continued middle-high
clouds as temperatures bottom out in the low-middle 60s areawide. All
shower and thunderstorm activity will remain south and west of the
South Plains along the higher terrain of the southern rockies and
ahead of an upper level disturbance near the Rio Grande.
Upper flow will veer as heights increase further heading into the
weekend with increasingly anticyclonic flow. A weak surface trough
will attempt to set up across West Texas toward the New Mexico state
line with winds veering northeasterly to easterly in the afternoon.
Convection should once again remain west of the South Plains along
the higher terrain of New Mexico. Locally...forecast soundings
indicate a subsidence inversion aloft despite steepening low level
lapse rates and plenty of middle-upper moisture. Forecast highs are a
bit tricky...but should see enough sunshine to warm temperatures
into the middle-upper 80s on The Caprock and upper 80s to low 90s in
the rolling plains...still below normal for early August.
not much change in the extended portion of the forecast. Through
the weekend...heights will gradually rise as upper ridge edges
east over wtx. Temperatures should show a slight warming trend while
precipitation chances for the most part will be shifting westward.
Steering flow will not be very favorable to bring any shower
activity over nm eastward into our County Warning Area although we can/T
completely rule out a renegade shower drifting across the state
line. By midweek..a series of shortwaves to our north and west
will beat down the upper ridge and create an environment a little
more conducive to precipitation...I.E. A surface trough and stronger
westerly flow aloft. A front will likely stall out to our north
but convergence along the trough and hopefully a deeper moisture
feed will support some shower activity. We have kept the slight
chance mention starting across the northwest Wednesday and most of the County Warning Area
Thursday. Temperatures will likely go above normal for early Aug by
midweek but the trend should flatten out as moisture increases.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 62 84 59 83 61 / 10 10 10 10 0
Tulia 61 85 59 85 62 / 0 10 10 0 0
Plainview 62 85 60 85 63 / 0 10 10 0 0
Levelland 63 85 63 85 62 / 0 10 10 10 0
Lubbock 63 87 64 86 65 / 0 10 10 0 0
Denver City 65 87 63 86 63 / 10 10 10 10 0
Brownfield 64 87 64 86 64 / 0 10 10 10 0
Childress 66 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
spur 63 88 63 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Aspermont 65 91 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0