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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
447 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Short term...
near zonal flow is expected to persist across the County warning forecast area with only
minor impulses embedded in the large scale flow. Starting off up
top...we will be on the fringe of the left exit region of an upper
level jet maximum from Baja California California sur to Durango /de Mexico/ this
afternoon. This would suggest some degree of broad lift across the
region. The only other positive for precipitation in the area is
some weak frontogenesis in our far southeastern zones. Turning to
the volumetric analysis...very impressive MUCAPE /upward of 3-
5kj/kg/ will exist across our eastern row or two. Shear profiles
are not overly impressive with bulk values of 20-30 kts.
Still...with this much does not take much for a storm to
become severe. The moisture and instability are there...what about
a trigger. As mentioned before...a weak bit of frontogenesis should
be in place in the southeast though to trigger convection...a fairly
respectable cap requires breaking and by 21z or so...the cap may
have eroded just enough to get things going. Certainly...the risk
of convective initiation is Worth mentionable probability of precipitation though the near
surface winds are not overly convergent. As such a conditional
severe mention is warranted. Given the available cape...hail to the
size of baseballs is possible as well as 70 miles per hour plus winds.
Activity should quickly scoot off to the east and out of the area
by 00z.

Long term...
thunderstorm chances continue midweek into the weekend while drier
conditions and warming temperatures look on track for the first week
of meteorological Summer.

A healthy stream of Gulf moisture will advect into the South Plains
region Wednesday...but neutral or height rises aloft should keep
thunderstorm chances fairly low. With dewpoints surging into the middle-
upper 60s across the rolling plains and temperatures heating into
the middle-upper 80s...isolated development seems warranted with
eastward mixing of the dryline. Higher resolution nwp solutions
continue to hint at a westward propagating outflow boundary...
stemming from an earlier day complex across Oklahoma...working into
the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and adjacent rolling plains
late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. This could have an impact on
storm intensity/coverage later Wednesday evening into the overnight
as large scale height falls take place downstream of an approaching
upper trough possibly profiting from phasing of a northern stream
wave digging through Idaho and a southern stream system moving
across Sonora/Arizona. Strong cape/moderate shear regime should
initially be in place ahead of main onset of convective
initiation...but severe potential may be limited Thursday afternoon
as the trough axis passes overhead. Nonetheless...showers and storms
look to be a good bet throughout the day into Friday with cyclonic
flow and ample moisture in place.

Friday night into Saturday will see a cold front push through West
Texas bringing moist upslope flow in the presence of upper
troughing...keeping precipitation around into at least the first
half of the weekend. Flow will transition to anticyclonic by Sunday
tapering back storm chances into next week. Continued upper ridging
from early into midweek should allow temperatures to warm back near
normal...middle 80s...after 70s and lower 80s Friday through the
weekend. Will continue to monitor a tropical disturbance in the
eastern Pacific...but a track to near or off the coast of Baja California looks
to keep any significant moisture enhancement well south. This
feature will also have an impact on the next round of western Continental U.S.
Energy by next Tuesday/Wednesday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 81 55 86 57 / 0 0 10 40
Tulia 82 57 85 60 / 0 10 10 40
Plainview 83 59 85 62 / 0 0 10 40
Levelland 85 62 87 62 / 0 0 10 50
Lubbock 86 63 87 63 / 0 10 10 50
Denver City 85 62 88 64 / 0 10 10 40
Brownfield 86 62 88 63 / 0 10 10 40
Childress 85 61 88 65 / 20 10 20 50
spur 87 62 87 63 / 10 10 10 40
Aspermont 92 65 90 66 / 20 10 20 30


Lub watches/warnings/advisories...



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