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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
344 am CDT Friday Jul 11 2014

Short term...
easterly wave across coahuila will translate toward the Edwards
Plateau today on the southern periphery of broad ridging across the
country/S midsection. While looking to bring nothing more than an
increase in middle-high clouds to the South Plains region with precipitable waters on
the order of 1.25 least temperatures should be a few
degrees cooler to round out the week. Areas on The Caprock should
stay in the upper 80s to near 90 while east of the Escarpment makes
it into the low-middle 90s. Any shot for appreciable precipitation will
remain south of the South Plains/rolling plains where the brunt of
the lift from the inverted trough may be able to overcome the
subsidence established by the ridge.

Moisture advection will continue into tonight as said wave
propagates toward The Trans-Pecos...thus keeping overnight lows
right around average in the low-middle 60s west of the Escarpment and
middle 60s-low 70s in the far southeast Panhandle and rolling plains
with light southerly breezes.


Long term...
models appear to be in decent agreement with the longterm through
most of the cycle. A weakness still seems likely to form in the
ridge Saturday that will cover most of the southern half of the Continental U.S. Which
will help bring in middle to upper level moisture to help prime US for
some shots at rain. A deep low will begin to move into the Great
Lakes region by late weekend which will push the ridge back westward
over The Four Corners region putting US on the Easter periphery of
it. This will set US up for a more northwesterly flow patter by late
Monday which may help bring some showers our direction that develop
over the mountains of northern nm ahead of an approaching strong
cold front. For this chance I have kept in the inherited slight
chance pop for Monday night. By 06z Tuesday the approaching front is
prognosticated to be over the Kansas/OK border according to surface Theta-E and
850 advection. A second surface boundary has consistently been
showing up on Theta-E ahead of the front and the convection along
the front most likely indicating convective outflow which will play
a part in our first good chance at precipitation. By Tuesday afternoon the
front will have pushed into our eastern zones before essentially
stalling as it becomes oriented parallel to the upper level flow
setting the eastern Texas Panhandle and rolling plains up for a few
bouts of moderate rain. While the front is expected to stall through
Wednesday...a low level jet will help feed moisture to the front to sustain
precipitation along it. With a constant feed of moisture along with precipitable waters
already being over 1.5 inches will open the door for some showers
and thunderstorms to be heavy.

By late Wednesday night a shortwave should rotated around the back
side of the longwave trough to help push the front through the forecast area by
Thursday morning. The GFS has been somewhat consistent with the idea
while the previous run of the European model (ecmwf) delayed the passage of the front
by nearly a day. The new 00z run of the European model (ecmwf) is more in line with
the GFS with a frontal passage occurring on Thursday afternoon. More precipitation is
possible as the front passes through the region. Since the European model (ecmwf) is
still a little bit slower than the GFS it is a bit more generous
with rain chances. By Friday the front should be south of the area
along with rain chances. Temperatures starting Tuesday will cool to below
seasonal averages. Temperatures by Thursday will be well below seasonal
averages with the highs ranging in the middle 70s to low 80s. Lows will
be in the upper 50s to middle 60s with the cooler temperatures being across
the Panhandle/northern South Plains. By next weekend the global
models begin to diverge with the GFS building the ridge back
overhead while the European model (ecmwf) keeps US in a northwesterly flow pattern
with the approach of a trough to our north. Aldrich


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 89 62 89 63 91 / 0 0 10 0 0
Tulia 90 64 91 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
Plainview 89 65 90 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
Levelland 89 65 90 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lubbock 89 67 91 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denver City 87 64 90 65 92 / 0 0 10 0 0
Brownfield 89 65 91 66 93 / 0 0 10 0 0
Childress 95 69 97 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
spur 91 67 95 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
Aspermont 95 70 98 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 0


Lub watches/warnings/advisories...



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