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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
308 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Short term...
northwest flow aloft will flatten over the next 24 hours. To our embedded ripple in the large scale flow will dive
southeastward across the Mississippi Valley while a bit of a trough
forms from El Paso toward Hermosillo. With the exception of a few
high clouds to our north...skies should remain mostly clear across
the area as a cold front transitions the County warning forecast area this morning. At
2am...this cold front was just entering the Oklahoma Panhandle and
should cross our northern row or two of counties by 12z then clear
by middle morning. Briefly breezy northerly winds are expected early
then becoming light and variable as the return flow sets up along
the Texas/nm state line. The cold front will slow the warmup just a
tad with highs topping out near 60s most locations.

If traveling today...conditions look quite pleasant across the southern
Continental U.S.. stormy weather is anticipated from the middle Atlantic into New
England with less intense snow chances across Montana...the middle
Mississippi Valley to up across Iowa into northern MN/WI...and light rain
in the Pacific northwest. Travel safely!


Long term...
amplified upper air ridging across the eastern Pacific is bearing down on the
western Continental U.S. Early this morning thus promoting dry northwest flow aloft across
the Southern Plains...whilst upper air troughiness dominates the middle-west
and eastern Continental U.S.. Thanksgiving day will be quite pleasant with temperatures a
few degrees above climatology /60s/ the once nearly surface winds provided
by today/S cold frontal passage will veer to a slightly breezy srly
flow courtesy of surface Lee troughing. Increasing 500 mb height fields
from the approaching upper Air Ridge coupled with afternoon west-SW surface breezes
will allow temperatures to warm into the 70s Friday through the weekend...which
is some 15 degrees above norm for late fall. By Sunday...flow aloft
will back to near zonal thanks to the progressive flow across the
northern U.S. Tier causing the Delaware-amplification of the upper Air Ridge.

Early next week...attention will turn to an ewrd propagating upper air
trough across Canada that will send down a cold front and its
associated Arctic airmass towards the region. Long term solutions
hint at the dry cold front moving across the County Warning Area on Monday...though
the coldest air appears to remain north of the region and result
in a glancing blow for the Southern Plains. Nonetheless...temperatures
will still drop to below norm /mainly in the 50s/ to start off the
first day of December. These cooler conditions will be short-lived
as surface winds return to a srly flow and the nearby surface ridge shifts
east away from the region. MOS guidance temperatures in the 50s and 60s
Tuesday and Wednesday appears valid. Concurrently...flow aloft
will commence to back further to the SW as an upper air Pacific trough
approaches the cali shore. S-southeast surface winds will aid in transporting
Gulf moisture across the region on Tuesday with prognosticated precipitable waters
nearing 1.00 inch across the far rolling plains by Tuesday night.
Long term solutions struggle with the exact track of the said
disturbance. The GFS pushes the disturbance across the desert SW
early in the week to across the Southern Plains middle to late
week...resulting in precipitation chances. The European model (ecmwf) on the other hand
has a more northern track with it noted across the Central Plains
by late week...though there appears to be just enough large scale
ascent and adequate low level moisture to result in the
development of precipitation. Some fine details still needs to be ironed
out...however the last few model runs implying that precipitation chances
will increase by mid-week...will result in the insertion of
20-30 percent probability of precipitation on Wednesday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 56 29 66 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tulia 55 29 64 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Plainview 55 29 64 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Levelland 57 31 65 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lubbock 57 31 65 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denver City 60 30 64 36 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Brownfield 59 32 65 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Childress 59 31 64 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
spur 58 32 65 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Aspermont 58 32 65 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 0


Lub watches/warnings/advisories...



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