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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
609 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Aviation...
VFR conditions to prevail through the taf period.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 307 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015/

Short term...
another quiet day in store across the South Plains as upper level
ridging remains in place overhead. Isolated convection on the Lee
trough should remain to the west and northwest of the forecast area. Prognosticated
thickness values near or just a touch lower than yesterday combined
with a bit of an uptick in low level moisture suggest merit in the
MOS trend of a very slight dip in high temperatures today and a mild
overnight.

Long term...
a relatively stagnate synoptic pattern is on tap for the extended
period...with upper air ridging dominating across the Southern Plains.
Long term solutions continue to show the upper Air Ridge translating east
of the region just a bit towards the end of the week courtesy of a
northwest Pacific disturbance moving onshore towards the High
Plains...thus making it possible for a bit of monsoonal
moisture/storms to nudge in across the far western and northwestern zones Friday-
early weekend. Tropical Depression Fourteen-east in the eastern Pacific
is anticipated to shift NE towards the Baja California of cali through the
weekend...and moisture from it could contribute to the overall
monsoonal moisture. Thereafter...the upper Air Ridge is prognosticated to return
practically overhead by late weekend/early next week hence likely
shutting down storm chances. That is to say...unless a cold front
and associated precipitation moves across the Texas Panhandle as hinted at
by the GFS...which could near the northern zones early next week.
Nearby surface Lee troughing will aid in slightly breezy surface srly flow
through the weekend...before becoming light and perhaps variable
at times...thanks to the upper Air Ridge and its surface counter-part moving
across the region by early next week.

Seasonably warm temperatures expected throughout the extended period. The
super-blended solution still insists on slightly warmer overnight
lows...but current thinking is that it is struggling with soils
not being as moist as what it thinks it should be. Will therefore
maintain slightly lower mins as a result /lower 60s across the SW
Texas Panhandle to the lower to upper 60s to lower 70s across the far
rolling plains/.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 90 63 91 62 / 10 0 10 10
Tulia 91 64 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
Plainview 91 65 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
Levelland 90 63 91 62 / 0 0 0 0
Lubbock 92 67 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
Denver City 89 64 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
Brownfield 90 64 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
Childress 97 69 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
spur 95 67 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
Aspermont 98 69 95 69 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

07/29/07

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