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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
630 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

VFR conditions with SW winds at or below 12 kts through the taf period.


Previous discussion... /issued 304 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015/

Short term...
satellite imagery early Tuesday afternoon shows mostly clear skies
across West Texas and indeed across most of the U.S. West of the
Mississippi. Surface winds across the area have returned to the S-SW
and are a bit breezy across the far southwest Texas Panhandle while
temperatures are mainly in the 80s. The weather will remain quiet for
the next 24 hours or so under dry northwest flow aloft.
Overnight lows will be warmer than last night...although we did
undercut guidance a couple degrees across the rolling plains where
some lingering dry air should help temperatures fall tonight. It will be
quite warm on Wednesday with highs in the middle to upper 80s on The
Caprock and low to middle 90s in the rolling plains.

Long term...
only a few tweaks were made to the previous long term forecast -
the greatest of which involved introducing low-end shower chances
to our northern counties Thursday night along and behind a decent cold
front. Otherwise...weak flow aloft will prevail Wednesday night through
Friday night as a modest upper ridge slowly traverses the region. The
low levels look a bit more interesting with some moisture return
already underway by Wednesday evening extending south to the lower Rio
Grande. How much of this moisture lingers ahead of a Canadian
frontal passage Thursday night is unclear as strong daytime heating/mixing will
certainly take a toll on this shallow moisture return...however
models do indicate some middle-level moistening wrapping northeastward around
the ridge during this time and it is this process along with weak
fn forcing aloft that may Garner some elevated showers in the
Post-frontal airmass. This activity would look to have a tough
time expanding south as the front inevitably outruns the better
saturation aloft.

Saturday will start with shallow upper ridging atop the region
followed by weak height falls Sat night downstream of a decaying
closed low exiting Southern California. Aside from rounds of high clouds at appreciable top-down moistening is evident until Monday as
the open wave draws closer. Left slight chance probability of precipitation largely intact
Monday-Wednesday as this SW flow pattern this many days out looks supportive
for a few bouts of precipitation...but deeper forcing and saturation may
be handicapped until another Canadian front arrives late Tuesday or Wednesday
and offers some focus. No changes of note to temperatures through the

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...



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