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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
250 am CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Short term...
the region will remain sandwiched between eastern troughing and
western ridging...with northerly flow aloft backing northwesterly as
the ridge looses amplitude through early Saturday. An embedded
shortwave trough diving from the Midwest to the Ohio River valley
today will open the door for a cool surface high to continue to
build southward through the center of the nation. The bulk of the
cold air will be directed well to our east...though a weak backdoor
cold front will swing the winds around to an easterly persuasion off
The Caprock this morning. The front may stall across the center of
the County Warning Area this afternoon before edging further west this evening.
However...winds will quickly shift back around to the south and
southwest early Saturday as a surface trough shifts eastward out of
New Mexico ahead of a weak upper level disturbance.

Aside from a few high clouds spilling over the area...abundant
insolation and climbing heights/thicknesses will support a decent
warm up from yesterday...even as the backdoor front edges in. All-in-
all it should be a great afternoon with relatively light winds and
highs topping out mostly in the 70s. The far southern South Plains
could even squeak out a few lower 80s. Seasonably mild conditions
will follow tonight...with lows mostly in the 40s.

Long term...
for the weekend...a low amplitude ridge will set up across northwest mx
and the desert SW with a couple of disturbances traversing the
west-northwest flow aloft stretching from the West Coast into the High
Plains. The first small disturbance will slide across West Texas on
Saturday with little discernible impact. Highs will be in the 80s.
A weak front will backdoor into the area Saturday afternoon
bringing some modest moisture into the rolling plains. A sharper
disturbance will move swiftly across the Central Plains on
Sunday. This will send a more significant front south toward the
forecast area. The timing of the front/S passage through the area
will likely have some affect on the temperature distribution...right
now we are leaning toward the front moving through during the
day...with highs ranging from the 70s northwest to near 90 southeast.

On Monday...guidance suggests that the front will stall somewhere
across SW Texas with roughly easterly flow advecting some low-level
moisture into the forecast area. As the upper low edges closer to the area
late Monday...we should see improving chance of showers and
T-storms. The track of the upper trough across SW Texas should favor
our southern and southeast zones for precipitation...but with quite a bit of
uncertainty with this southern stream system we are only going up to
low chance /30 percent/ in the southern rolling plains at this time.
Precipitation chances may continue through the day Tuesday across the
rolling plains as the system moves into south-central Texas. The
Post-frontal airmass...higher moisture levels and more cloud cover
should keep highs mainly in the 70s Monday and Tuesday...which
should then warm back up into the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday and
Thursday despite perhaps another weak frontal passage. By next Friday...a
stronger front could move through the area as the next shortwave
swings out of The Rockies and across the plains. Current
indications are that the upper trough will pass too far north to
bring much in the way of rain chances...but the front could
effectuate a substantial cool-down.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 74 39 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
Tulia 74 40 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
Plainview 75 40 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
Levelland 79 44 85 47 / 0 0 0 0
Lubbock 78 44 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
Denver City 80 45 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
Brownfield 81 46 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
Childress 74 44 86 50 / 0 0 0 0
spur 76 45 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
Aspermont 76 47 87 54 / 0 0 0 0


Lub watches/warnings/advisories...



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