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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
638 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2014

Aviation...
continued VFR through 31/00z with no threat for thunderstorms and rain. Decaying
cold front near the terminals will wash out overnight keeping
winds light/vrb.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 325 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2014/

Short term...
the upper air low that brought periods of beneficial heavy rainfall and
small to severe hail to portions of the South Plains and rolling
plains yesterday...has since opened up and sheared out a bit across
the Central Plains late this afternoon and is prognosticated to get swept up by
the wrly flow aloft to across the Great Lakes region late tonight.
As such...large scale ascent has been fleeting across the Southern
Plains as isolated showers and thunderstorms have managed to
continually develop just south and east of the County Warning Area...nearest to the
the base of the upper air trough and best moisture axis.
Nonetheless...precipitation development nearing the Low Rolling Plains is
not of the question...especially since it briefly occurred earlier
this afternoon. As the upper air trough moves farther away tonight...so will the
precipitation activity.

A cold front/boundary has sagged south across the region since
earlier this morning...but has since stalled this afternoon from a
Memphis to Floydada to Tahoka line. Will need to keep a close eye on
this boundary and see if it aids in the development of
convection...although most solutions are pessimistic about that
plausibility due to the boundary being so weak. Attention quickly
turns to another potential precipitation opportunity courtesy of northwest flow
aloft and embedded impulses. Storms are shown to develop across southern
Colorado/northern nm tonight...and with favorable northwest flow aloft...it will
translate southeast to across the western and southwestern Texas Panhandle. This activity
is shown to wane a bit but will re-develop and move near/across the
northern South Plains and northern rolling plains tomorrow
afternoon/evening per the NAM and European model (ecmwf) /the GFS is much less bullish/.
Will hold on to slight chance probability of precipitation across the far northern zones given
the ensuing embedded disturbance...precipitable waters of at or above 1.00 inch and S-southeast
surface winds working in favor of this scenario.

On the heels of the upper air trough is invading dry air aloft impinging on
the region...which will slowly trickle down to the middle-levels by
tonight per prognosticated model soundings. However...low levels will
remain relatively moist as dewpoints per 20z metars ranged from the
30s across the SW Texas Panhandle to the 70s across the Low Rolling
Plains /pwats in the 0.75-1.60 range/...and will increase into the
50s and 60s by tonight /pwats in the 1.00-1.20 inch range/.
Hence...it is no wonder that precipitation will potentially be able to
linger into tonight.

Temperatures tonight will range from the lower 60s across the far SW Texas
Panhandle to the upper 60s across the Low Rolling Plains. Highs
tomorrow may be a few degrees warmer than today /lower to upper 90s/
thanks to recent rainfall become less influential. /29

Long term...
less amplified flow is expected through the middle of the coming
week. Solutions are in better agreement that following the weak
impulse late Sunday...the next wave late Monday will be weaker still.
Slight cyclonic flow will set in Sunday and Monday leading to
enhanced dry and warm westerly component across our area. Trends
support further middle level warming which leans towards more of a
lid as well. And thickness values continue to peak Sunday and
Monday in line with earlier trends and current guidance showing
those two as the warmest upcoming days. An elongated west to east
upper ridge is then expected Tuesday and Wednesday with a ridge
center close...continuing dry with above normal temperatures. A
stalled frontal boundary seems likely to remain to our north...
perhaps as far south as northwest Oklahoma and the northern Texas
Panhandle. Pattern should shift east late in the week as next
round of amplification develops with a western trough and eastern
ridge. Early trends continue to display the monsoonal tap to our
west. Rmcqueen

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 60 91 64 94 63 / 0 20 10 10 10
Tulia 64 92 66 95 67 / 0 20 10 10 10
Plainview 65 92 67 94 67 / 0 20 10 10 10
Levelland 65 91 66 94 66 / 0 10 10 10 10
Lubbock 66 94 69 96 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
Denver City 64 92 67 95 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
Brownfield 66 93 67 95 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
Childress 68 96 72 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
spur 71 95 69 97 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
Aspermont 72 97 73 98 74 / 20 10 10 10 10

&&

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

93

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