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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
525 PM CST Friday Dec 19 2014

Aviation...
low clouds were slow to scour out from west to east early this
evening...as MVFR cloud decks persisted at all three taf
sites...though the clearing line was nearing klbb and kpvw and
could therefore result in a brief period of scattered-broken MVFR decks.
Tonight...conditions will deteriorate with IFR cloud decks making a
return as well as the potential for MVFR to potentially IFR fog
overnight. Light and variable winds early this evening will veer
to the south tonight and veer further to the south southwest
Saturday afternoon where thereafter the scouring of low clouds and
fog will once again occur at klbb and kpvw. Kcds will likely hold
on to MVFR cloud decks tomorrow afternoon and through the end of
the taf period.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 413 PM CST Friday Dec 19 2014/

Short term...
persistant low cloud deck and fog has been and will continue to be
the primary forecast challenge. Clearing line has almost made it to
lbb and we may see brief clearing before moisture races eastward
tonight once again. Indications are that fog will likely develop
again this evening perhaps thickest out west. With forecast lows
across our extreme northwestern zones...have kept /though shrunk/
fzfg across Parmer/Bailey/Castro counties tonight. Into
Saturday...low clouds look to push east fairly rapidly though
remaining longest across the rolling plains where the expectation is
that the afternoon highs will struggle to get much above 50. We
will also see an increase in jet level clouds overspreading the area.

Long term...
some patchy fog early Sunday morning through middle
morning...otherwise northwest flow on Lee side of rockies from
ridge axis centered over northwest Pacific coast for the beginning
of longterm. Models are in general agreement with the aforementioned
northwest flow and subsequent surface pressure falls associated with
trough axis centered to our east progressing east through midweek. A
weak cold front will push south through West Texas Monday afternoon
into Monday night. Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) hint at slight chance probability of precipitation
later Monday especially in the eastern half of our County Warning Area given
proximity to higher dewpoints and steeper pressure falls across North
Texas...temperatures and dewpoints drop Tuesday as cooler air moves dives
south behind the cold front...midweek is where the GFS/European model (ecmwf) begin
to diverge. Both indicate an upper trough and vortmax entering the
Pacific northwest late Wednesday. The GFS quickly shifts and
flattens the trough to the east resulting in mainly zonal flow aloft
across the southern Continental U.S. Through Christmas and into next weekend
weekend...while the European model (ecmwf) is more amplified with the trough
deepening across the southern rockies and on our doorstep to the
west Friday...in fact the European model (ecmwf) indicates a jetmax moving across the
base of the trough and over the South Plains late Friday/early
Saturday upwards of 120kts at 300mb...while the GFS positions the
jet farther north into Kansas and is considerably weaker. GFS seems
to be the outlier at this point with other longterm guidance leaning
toward more amplified pattern.

Either way Christmas will be warmer than normal and dry with mostly
sunny skies across West Texas and potentially windy as well. Theres
plenty of time to wait for the models to build consensus and hammer
out the details for precipitation chances late Friday into Saturday next
week and for now have no mention of even slight chance in the probability of precipitation.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 24 53 28 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tulia 30 53 33 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
Plainview 32 53 34 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Levelland 30 54 35 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lubbock 32 53 36 61 37 / 0 0 10 0 0
Denver City 31 54 35 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Brownfield 32 54 37 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Childress 35 49 37 57 37 / 0 0 10 10 0
spur 33 52 39 60 38 / 0 0 10 10 0
Aspermont 36 53 39 60 40 / 0 0 10 10 0

&&

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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