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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
1146 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

VFR will continue through the taf period.


Previous discussion... /issued 330 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015/

Short term...
minimal changes tonight and Thursday. Upper level high pressure
overhead will nudge slightly to the east later Thursday. Modest
increase in middle and upper level moisture will occur but still not
enough to coax US into mentionable thunder chances...which should
remain west of US in New Mexico through the period. Mild temperature
regime will remain...with lows tonight likely another notch warmer
than the past few nights. Rmcqueen

Long term...
upper level ridging will be slow to back off to the east but should
gradually do so through early this weekend as an upper low drops
into the western states. This will allow the eastern edge of the
southwest monsoon to Bend across the northwestern zones. The
improved deep layer moisture coupled with a surface trough in the
area and strong daytime heating may be enough to support isolated
convection near the Texas/nm line late week into early this weekend.
That does appear the better moisture /with a tap from
tropical depression 14-east in the eastern Pacific/ and more widespread
rain chances will be directed to our west. Given this and the fact
the most nwp has now backed off on generating even light quantitative precipitation forecast across
our northwest through late week...we have trimmed probability of precipitation down toward
10 percent there...with even lower values further east. It does
appear the monsoonal plume and surface trough will Bend even
further east by Saturday with a better shot of storms for our
northwest zones...though the deep layer moisture should also be
thinning. The storm chances may edge even further east on Sunday
as the western storm system ejects over the northern High
Plains...though further thinning of the upper level moisture at
our latitude will likely tend to limit storm coverage. A similar
setup will keep a chance of storms in the forecast for much of the
southern Texas Panhandle into the South Plains on Monday.

Beyond Monday there is general agreement that additional jet energy
traversing the northern tier of the nation will tend to further
flatten the upper ridge...though exactly how fast this happens
remains in flux. Given this there is uncertainty in the
details...but we have maintained slim rain chances for much of
the area into the middle of next week as one or more weak
disturbances topping the Flat Ridge may provide periods of weak
lift in or near the area. In addition...we will have to see if a
cold front can move into the South Plains by the middle or latter
part of the week and provide another possible focus for convection
as well as cooler temperatures.

Before any potential cold front...afternoon temperatures will
continue to reside several degrees to the warm side of early
September averages.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 65 91 63 90 / 10 10 10 10
Tulia 66 91 63 90 / 0 0 10 10
Plainview 68 91 63 90 / 0 0 0 10
Levelland 63 91 62 90 / 0 0 0 10
Lubbock 66 92 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
Denver City 64 91 62 90 / 0 0 0 10
Brownfield 65 91 63 90 / 0 0 0 10
Childress 70 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
spur 67 93 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Aspermont 70 95 69 94 / 0 0 0 0


Lub watches/warnings/advisories...



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