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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
630 am CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

low ceilings will likely stay entrenched across the region for at
least the next 24 hours. Low level moisture and an upper level
disturbance was also bringing widespread rain showers. Some
embedded thunderstorms will be possible but the primary Mode will
be rain showers. Visbys will likely drop into MVFR when rain
showers are occurring at any taf site.


Previous discussion... /issued 359 am CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/

Short term...
as the upper low nears the area today we will see more widespread
rain shower and thunderstorm chances. Strong dynamics from this
system were already developing scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area. This low will track directly over the area today. The
main deformation zone from this low will be located to the north of
the area in the Texas Panhandle. This will clearly bring much better
precipitation chances to the Panhandle with lesser chances to the
south. Moisture wrapping around the system with soundings remaining
saturated through a deep layer will Garner precipitation chances
continuing through the entire day. Although most activity will be
light to moderate rainfall. Some instability remains in the
atmosphere so isolated thunderstorms and some localized higher
rainfall rates will be possible. Temperatures will be drastically
different from the past few days. Today will generally be a cool and
raw day with temperatures mostly in the 50s to lower 60s.

Long term...
cool and damp lower atmosphere early Tuesday on the back-side of
the departing upper low along the Red River to our east. Weak
shallow lift and slight upslope components will be adequate to
retain a chance of light showers or perhaps drizzle favoring the
eastern half of the area early Tuesday. Airmass will gradually dry
later Tuesday as the upper low pulls further to the east. But
Tuesday will stay a very cool day leading into to another chilly
night Tuesday night. A weak replacement upper trough dipping out
of the northern plains will move in early Wednesday...but will not
be accompanied by either moisture or lift. Skies should be clear
Wednesday and even though relatively cool air will still be in
place...a full day of sun will allow warming into the lower 70s
most areas by late in the day...only about 5-7 degrees shy of

A sharp upper level ridge axis through the intermountain west
will bulge overhead Thursday...though wave activity progressing
off the northern Pacific will gradually collapse heights. Initial
convective opportunities will be quite limited by minimal return
of Gulf of Mexico moisture that should remain just east of our
area through Friday or even Saturday. Dewpoints will hold mostly
in the 30s and 40s through the end of the week before finally a
return to 50s dewpoints by the end of the weekend. So realistic
thunderstorm chances probably will delay until the end of the
weekend as well...other than perhaps a few high-based cells
approaching the southwest Panhandle late Friday and again
Saturday. Warming will kick in another notch by the weekend with
the flatter heights resulting in deeper westerly component across
the area. Minor changes to previous forecast. Longer range
solutions now agree reasonably well that a low latitude wave may
bring better moisture and lift into the area early the next week.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 51 34 61 36 / 70 40 10 0
Tulia 52 36 61 37 / 70 50 20 0
Plainview 52 37 61 38 / 70 50 20 0
Levelland 55 37 62 38 / 60 40 20 0
Lubbock 55 37 62 39 / 60 40 20 0
Denver City 60 37 61 38 / 40 20 10 0
Brownfield 61 38 61 39 / 50 30 20 0
Childress 58 46 64 43 / 70 60 30 10
spur 64 44 61 42 / 60 60 30 10
Aspermont 67 46 62 43 / 60 60 30 10


Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for txz024>026-031-032.




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