Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
520 am CST sun Feb 1 2015
obstructions due to fog has caused visible to drop to VFR at klbb and
IFR at kcds. Conditions have recently improved above 6sm at kpvw.
Furthermore...LIFR decks are occurring at kcds...IFR decks at klbb and
MVFR decks at kpvw. Will expect both visible and decks to improve to
VFR in the next few hours...courtesy of a cold front. This front
will veer winds to the north sustained at 18-19 kts with gusts
around 24 kts. This will prevail through early afternoon where
thereafter...north wind speeds will decline to below 12 kts.
Tonight...winds will veer to the southeast particulary at klbb and
Previous discussion... /issued 326 am CST sun Feb 1 2015/
the upper air low that provided the region with beneficial rainfall for the
South Plains and rolling plains yesterday...and resulted in a record
breaking rainfall for klbb...was gradually translating south-southeast across
western old Mexico early this morning. Additional showers are not
expected this morning given its southern latitude...however moist grounds
and light S-SW surface winds have resulted in the development of low
clouds /with intermittent drizzle/ and foggy conditions across
portions of the County Warning Area. Visible have ranged from 7 miles at kpvw...4 miles
at klbb and 3 miles at kcds per 08z metars. Visible conditions are
better at klbb and kpvw likely given the west-SW wind...which is a
downslope component that aids in drier conditions /versus light
and variable flow at kcds/. Visible conditions could briefly
deteriorate later this morning...that is until an upper air shortwave
progressing east across the central/northern plains sends down a
cold front to impinge on the region at or above 12z and clearing the southern
zones between 15z- 18z. This front will cause surface winds to veer to
the west-northwest and finally to the north which will result in precipitable waters
dropping from 0.60-0.75 inches down to below 0.50 inches after the
frontal passage...thus drying out low levels and scouring out any lingering
fog...low clouds and hence drizzle. A tightened pressure gradient
and pressure rises on the order of 4-6 mb per 3 hours suggest nearly
wind speeds will increase into the 15-20 miles per hour early this afternoon. The
gradient will relax by late afternoon/early evening leading to
declining wind speeds whilst winds veer to the E-NE.
Clearing skies throughout the day will allow temperatures to warm into the
40s on The Caprock to the upper 40s to lower 50s off The
Caprock...which is a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
However...clear skies and light S-southeast surface winds will cause overnight
temperatures to fall into the 20s.
no sig changes to the forecast this morning. Models remain consistent
with a northwesterly flow aloft across the southern High Plains in a fairly
stagnant western Continental U.S. Upper ridge and eastern Continental U.S. Upper trough pattern.
Fairly minor changes to the amplitude of the upper pattern and
timing of short wave troughs moving through the flow will bring
changes to sensible weather across the forecast area this week.
Fairly breezy conditions Monday and possibly again Tuesday as Lee
surface trough develops eastern nm underneath the northwesterly upper flow. These
breezy SW to west winds to usher in a warming trend...peaking
Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front passage. This front to
be driven south by a fairly Stout upper level short wave diving
southeastward in increasingly amplified northwesterly flow. Pre-frontal moisture
should be limited given persistent westerly component to the low
level flow...so probability of precipitation to remain below mention. Temperatures briefly cooler
Thursday before the flattened upper ridge over the western Continental U.S.
Begins to shift slowly eastward. Increasing heights and return of a
westerly low level component point to markedly warmer temperatures by
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 44 22 55 29 / 10 0 0 0
Tulia 43 21 53 30 / 10 0 0 0
Plainview 45 23 52 32 / 10 0 0 0
Levelland 47 24 53 30 / 10 0 0 0
Lubbock 47 23 52 31 / 10 0 0 0
Denver City 49 25 52 30 / 10 0 0 0
Brownfield 49 25 53 31 / 10 0 0 0
Childress 47 23 48 35 / 10 0 0 0
spur 49 24 50 32 / 10 0 0 0
Aspermont 50 24 50 35 / 10 0 0 0