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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
408 am CDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

Short...
showers mostly dissipated at this point western South Plains with
slim chance for re-energizing over next several hours. Upper level
ridge axis across western zones this morning will flatten slightly
while edging into eastern zones later today. Western South Plains
will remain in generally favorable upper level divergence region
though solutions mixed about ability to develop new weak thunder
activity this area later today. Although uncertain...we restored the
previous slight chance this area for later today. Otherwise today
should follow close to blended solutions in most aspects as Summer
kicks in another notch. Rmcqueen

Long term...
an upper ridge will flex its muscles over the central US this week
as a trough digs and strengthens into the western Continental U.S.. this will
form a pseudo Omega type blocking pattern which will generally
lead to warmer temperatures and little to no precipitation over
the coming week. However...the mav/mex guidance is an outlier on
maximum temperatures for the rest of this week showing near or above
100 degrees. This may be due to the model drying out soil moisture
too much given the record rains observed over the past month.
Superblend and all other guidance shows temperatures several
degrees lower which looks to be more likely. A few fronts will
make a run at the area over the next week but will have a
difficult time at entering the South Plains with strong ridging
overhead.

By early next week...the upper ridge will decrease its amplitude allowing
the cut off low over Southern California to eject out east over
The Rockies. This may have the potential to bring some
precipitation chances back to West Texas by the middle of next
week. Furthermore...this will also have the chance at drawing a
Pacific tropical system up into the region.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 90 59 94 61 / 10 10 10 0
Tulia 88 62 92 63 / 10 10 0 0
Plainview 87 62 91 64 / 10 10 0 0
Levelland 90 63 95 64 / 20 10 0 0
Lubbock 88 65 93 65 / 10 10 0 0
Denver City 91 62 96 63 / 20 20 0 0
Brownfield 91 64 96 64 / 20 10 0 0
Childress 89 66 92 68 / 10 10 0 0
spur 89 65 91 65 / 10 10 0 0
Aspermont 89 67 91 67 / 10 10 0 0

&&

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

05/01

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