Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated aviation 
National Weather Service St Louis MO
652 am CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Short term: (through Wednesday night)
issued at 355 am CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Early morning sh/ts expected to continue pushing east and south with
the sinking synoptic boundary and a veering low level jet. The Flash Flood
Watch has been canceled early for the counties where rain has
already ended. Additional counties may be canceled over the next few
hours based on radar trends.

After a lull in sh/ts over most of the area for today (except
possibly across the southern County Warning Area in closer proximity to outflow
boundaries and in the higher terrain of the eastern ozarks),
precipitation chances increase again late tonight and tomorrow as
the quasistationary frontal boundary lifts back northeastward as a
warm front and a southwesterly low level jet begins to interact with it.
Kanofsky

Long term: (tonight through monday)
issued at 355 am CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

An approaching cold front will bring the next chance of sh/ts to
the area late this week, however the best dynamics are forecast to
remain north of the County Warning Area.

Expect warm temperatures (80s-90s) through the end of the week
followed by a rapid cool-down on Sat. The warmest day of the week
will probably be on Thursday after the passage of a warm front on
the previous day and in the absence of widespread precip/cloud
cover along with 850 mb temperatures increasing to 20-22 deg c. The
coolest days will probably be on Saturday and Sunday behind a cold
front. The cooler weather might even last into Monday. Expect
highs to be around 10 degrees cooler on Saturday compared to
Friday.

Kanofsky

&&

Aviation: (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 633 am CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

A small area of showers and thunderstorms has quickly developed
since 1115z just to the northeast of kstl. Unless they develop
further to the west southwest I think that all the taf sites
should be void of precipitation. Areas of IFR and MVFR cigs cover
portions of the area this morning and additional broken MVFR cigs
are forecast to develop this morning before scattering out by
midday. VFR conditions are then expected from the afternoon
through tonight. Will need to keep a close eye on showers and
thunderstorms developing over western MO tonight. Think these will
stay west of kcou through 12z Wed.

Specifics for kstl:

A small area of showers and thunderstorms has quickly developed
since 1115z just to the northeast of kstl. Unless they develop
further to the west southwest I think that a sprinkle is all kstl
will see over the next hour or so. Otherwise the terminal is
surrounded to the north and east by areas of IFR and MVFR cigs.
Additional broken MVFR cigs are forecast to develop this morning
before scattering out by midday. VFR conditions are then expected
from the afternoon through tonight.

Glass

&&

Lsx watches/warnings/advisories:
MO...none.
Illinois...none.
&&

$$

Weather forecast office lsx

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations