Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1142 am CST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

Update:
issued at 1129 am CST Wed Feb 10 2016

Snow is moving a little faster than previously forecast into
eastern Missouri. Already seeing a few flurries out here at weather forecast office
lsx in Weldon Spring, and initially we didn't expect it for at
least another hour or two. Have updated the forecast twice already
to account for this, but another update will be in order by noon.
The initial band of snow is producing accumulations of around 1/2
inch according to reports in central Missouri. Accumulation
forecasts still look pretty good at this time...but may need to
tweak up a few tenths of an inch.

Carney

&&

Short term: (through late this afternoon)
issued at 341 am CST Wed Feb 10 2016

..light snow this afternoon and evening...

A fast moving clipper system will move from North Dakota to central
Oklahoma today. A fairly narrow band of light snow accumulation is
expected to occur from central North Dakota to southwest Illinois
over the next 24 hours in response to an area of frontogenesis that
accompanies the system. Limited moisture, quick moving nature of the
system and weakening frontogenesis will locally keep accumulation
under advisory criteria. Have increased pops to categorical, but
retained snow accumulation forecast of around an inch.

Cvking

Long term: (tonight through tuesday)
issued at 341 am CST Wed Feb 10 2016

Next shortwave forecast to dive southeast into the Midwest on
Thursday night and Friday, but majority of snow from this feature
looks to remain to the northeast of our County Warning Area. Otherwise, it looks
cold for the remainder of the week with the Prospect of a advisory
level warm advection snow event this weekend, but a lot can change
between now and then, so stay tuned.

Cvking

&&

Aviation: (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1129 am CST Wed Feb 10 2016

IFR flight conditions associated with a band of snow will move
east out of central Missouri into eastern Missouri and southwest
Illinois through the afternoon. Current expectations are that the
heaviest snow won't make it much further east than the Mississippi
River, so south central Illinois counties will likely only see
very light snow with MVFR or VFR conditions. Snow should be ending
by around 06z. Some low MVFR ceilings expected over the Ozarks
tonight which should be gone by mid-late Thursday morning.

Specifics for kstl:

Band of snow is moving toward the terminal at this time. 19z start
time of precipitation in the taf may be a little late...probably
more like 1830z based on current radar. Once snow begins, expect
the visibility to drop to IFR category...although ceiling looks to
stay MVFR based on upstream observations. Current guidance is
hinting that the heaviest snow will be this afternoon, and
becoming much lighter this evening and finally ending around
05-06z. Wouldn't be surprised to see some flurries linger a little
longer than that, but should have little impact on Airport
operations.

Carney

&&

Lsx watches/warnings/advisories:
MO...none.
Illinois...none.
&&

$$

Weather forecast office lsx

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations