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Area forecast discussion...updated aviation 
National Weather Service St Louis MO
700 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Short term: (through late this afternoon)
issued at 328 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Same basic weather pattern remains over the area today with large
scale ridging across the southeastern 1/3 of the Continental U.S.. a shear
axis aloft still stretches from eastern Texas through Arkansas and
southeast Missouri into the Ohio Valley. A weak shortwave trough is
riding over the northern periphery of the ridge across Nebraska into
Iowa and is producing a broken line of thunderstorms stretching
across central Iowa into northwest Missouri. Current thinking is
that these storms won't make it into our County warning forecast area this morning but
should weaken and dissipate after sunrise. Another warm humid day
is expected with highs similar to tuesday's...perhaps a degree or
two warmer. Signals for afternoon convection are weaker in the
guidance than they were for yesterday, so have a dry forecast going
this morning. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if
some isolated thunderstorms developed this afternoon.


Long term: (tonight through tuesday)
issued at 346 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Upper level ridge continues to control our weather through the end
of the week into the weekend. Therefore it looks like a pretty
stagnant weather pattern which should keep temperatures above normal
with little or no chance for precipitation at least through Sunday or
Monday. Medium range guidance tries to begin shifting the pattern
Monday into Tuesday by bringing the longwave trough over the West
Coast across The Rockies and up through the northern plains. This
should at least partially break down the ridge over our area
bringing US a chance of rain and perhaps some cooler temperatures by



Aviation: (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 647 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Shortwave riding top of ridge continues to fuel band of convection
from central Iowa into northwest MO, however hrrr data throughout the
overnight hours has maintained the the general idea that this
activity will weaken and dissipate before reaching kcou or KUIN.
High cloudiness (aoa 10kft) associated with this convection will
overspread area this morning, followed by a bit of diurnal, hi
based cumulus forming once again around midday.

Specifics for kstl: VFR conditions are expected, with cirrus working
across the area this morning, and diurnal cumulus with bases at or above 5kft
this afternoon.



Preliminary point temperatures/pops:
Saint Louis 94 74 94 75 / 5 5 10 5
Quincy 92 69 92 70 / 10 5 10 5
Columbia 92 69 93 70 / 10 5 5 0
Jefferson City 92 69 93 70 / 5 5 5 5
Salem 92 70 91 70 / 10 5 10 5
Farmington 92 68 92 68 / 10 5 5 0


Lsx watches/warnings/advisories:


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