Area forecast discussion...updated aviation
National Weather Service St Louis MO
647 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Short term...(through tonight)
issued at 240 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
While some precipitation is expected today...focus will be temperatures.
Upper trough finally on the way out of the area today. There is one
Last Chance for precipitation today...then some dry weather...until
tomorrow night. Expect isod rain showers today mainly for the northern and eastern
portions of the County Warning Area. Doubtful these rain showers will look much different
than what is ongoing across eastern Iowa/northern Illinois...but become more
cellular with some heating today.
As for temperatures...trended a little cooler for today with ample cloud
cover across the area...and cooler still for tonight as the clouds
clear out of the region and light winds allowing for good
radiational cooling.
Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 240 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
The remainder of the forecast period will be dominated by a threat
of thunderstorms and rain. Not much has changed from 00z models yesterday. Models are
still in two camps...one with the mesoscale convective system track just north of the area
while the other keeps the mesoscale convective system/S traveling through the County Warning Area. The European model (ecmwf)
remains the wet solution for the County Warning Area while the GFS suggests more dry
time.
The mesoscale convective system tracks will largely depend on the strength of the upper
ridge as well as where/when the first cluster develops as well as
other mesoscale processes. Because of this...have kept probability of precipitation in the
low chance range except for those areas/times where models are in
good agreement suggesting thunderstorms and rain.
Due to precipitation questions mentioned above...have trended toward a
middle of the Road solution for temperatures with gradual moderating temperatures
through next week.
Tilly
&&
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 644 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Area of ceilings dropping south across the area today...with winds
shifting from northwest to north. Clouds to clear this evening
with winds shifting to the northeast and decreasing.
Specifics for kstl...
a period of MVFR stratus is expected later this morning. Skies
should clear tonight. Northwest wind to become north today...then
northeast tonight.
Cvking
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Saint Louis 67 46 71 52 / 20 0 0 20
Quincy 62 42 68 51 / 20 0 0 50
Columbia 66 44 70 53 / 10 0 0 30
Jefferson City 68 44 71 52 / 10 0 0 30
Salem 66 43 69 48 / 20 0 0 10
Farmington 70 44 70 48 / 10 0 0 10
&&
Lsx watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Illinois...none.
&&
$$
Weather forecast office lsx
