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Area forecast discussion...updated aviation 
National Weather Service St Louis MO
611 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Short term: (through late this afternoon)
issued at 335 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Mid-high clouds associated with weak upper trough currently
moving southeastward across the Midwest will push out of the area
by mid-morning. Low clouds have also been showing a clearing trend
the past few hours. Should be a dry day as an upper ridge begins
to move into the area. Temperatures this afternoon will climb
close to 70 with the return of sunshine and winds turning out of
the southwest as the surface high moves east of the area.


Long term: (tonight through friday)
issued at 335 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

The upper ridge will move across the area tonight and Sunday
providing dry weather to the area. Temperatures on Sunday will
climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s as 850mb temperatures climb
into the 10-15c range. Still expect a dry cold frontal passage on
Sunday night as the atmosphere will remain dry through a deep
layer and what ascent there will be will be behind the front
associated with the upper trough moving across the upper Midwest.

Kept with a dry forecast for the rest of next week as both the GFS
and European model (ecmwf) are showing dry northwesterly upper flow setting up
behind the passage of the cold front early next week. Both models
do not depict any quantitative precipitation forecast during this period. 850mb temperatures remain
near 10c which favors surface values near or just above mid
October normals.



Aviation: (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 608 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Area of broken clouds with low VFR cigs continues to dissipate and
redevelop across ern MO and SW Illinois this morning. With weak steering
winds aloft, it is uncertain how long these clouds will linger
this morning. Believe they will push swd this morning with
kstl/ksus/kcps being the last to clear out mid to late this
morning. Winds will gradually become swly to sly this afternoon
into this evening. Once current cloud deck breaks up, expect the
rest of the taf period to be sky clear. Believe winds will provide enuf
mixing tonight to prevent fog from forming, but trends will need to
be monitored.



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