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346 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The last vestiges of this morning's low clouds and fog is finally 
dissipating.  However, clearing sky and light wind combined with 
relatively high dewpoints in the mid and upper 50s tonight will 
likely produce more fog.  A weak trof of low pressure now moving 
through eastern Nebraska will also drop into the area providing a 
little lift and convergence but not much of an increase in wind.  
Unsure how low to go at this time, but at least patchy fog looks 
likely with more widespread fog in northeast MO/west central IL.

Fog will likely linger into the daytime hours of Saturday morning.  
A lot of uncertainty as to how long...but at least through 14-15Z 
seems likely.  The trof is expected to come to a halt Saturday 
afternoon/evening near the MO/AR border then begin lifting back to 
the north as a warm front as warm advection begins ahead of the next 
system.  The warm front continues lifting north Sunday and decent 
mixing should give us temperatures well above normal.  MOS 
temperatures through Sunday look pretty reasonable so have followed 
them closely.


.LONG TERM: (Sunday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Sunday night into Monday the next strong shortwave moves from the 
Rockies into the Great Plains.  Strong warm advection should keep 
temperatures pretty mild...more summer-like in fact...into Monday 
afternoon.  As the surface cold front associated with the shortwave 
approaches the area Monday night, expect scattered showers and 
possibly a few thunderstorms to affect the area.  Kept PoPs in the 
high chance/low likely range as the front moves through the area 
late Monday night into Tuesday.  Rain chances should be more or less 
done by 00Z Wednesday.  Cooler conditions for the rest of the week 
as the upper pattern amplifies with a deep trof over eastern North 
America and a strong ridge over the Rockies. A shortwave is forecast 
to ripple by Thursday which could produce another round of light 
rain, tho differences in medium range guidance indicate slight 
chance PoPs are the best way to handle it at this time.  Next Friday 
looks cool and dry at this time as a strong Canadian high pressure 
system slides down into the Mississippi Valley.



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Stratus and fog were slow to clear this morning, a true sign of
the changing of the season and lower sun angle. Should see most if
not all locations become VFR this afternoon before a renewed
threat of fog or stratus development tonight ahead of a weak trof. 

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected to continue with a light south wind
becoming west/northwest tomorrow morning. There is a chance of
some MVFR fog developing late tonight and early tomorrow morning.



Saint Louis     59  78  55  79 /   0   0   0   5 
Quincy          54  75  50  77 /   0   0   0  10 
Columbia        56  79  55  83 /   0   0   0   5 
Jefferson City  55  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   5 
Salem           54  75  49  76 /   0   0   0   5 
Farmington      55  77  51  80 /   0   0   0   0 





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