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Area forecast discussion...updated aviation 
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1156 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Short term: (through this evening)
issued at 226 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Cumulus field is getting a little more agitated across eastern Missouri
and southwest Illinois and the hrrr continues to show the potential
of some pulse storms...so have included some slight chance/isolated
probability of precipitation for late this afternoon into this evening for this area.
Otherwise...its hot outside with temperatures in the middle 90s and
heat indices closing in on the century mark in some locals.

Cvking

Long term: (monday through next sunday)
issued at 226 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Cold front currently located across the upper Midwest will drop
south into the County Warning Area late tonight...reaching the Interstate 70
corridor by daybreak tomorrow. Little or no upper level support and
meager surface convergence will keeps probability of precipitation in the slight chance
category overnight and not mentionable tomorrow morning. Daytime
heating tomorrow afternoon should result in at least isolated
convection near the stalled front but better chances of rain will
probably hold off until late Monday night and Tuesday when model
guidance is showing moisture convergence developing north of the
front from north central Missouri to southwest Illinois. Have
increased probability of precipitation slightly for this time period but anticipate
further adjustments will be needed.

Thunderstorm chances continue much of the week as the quasi-
stationary front will interact with several upper level disturbances
and the nocturnal low level jet. Temperatures to remain below
normal with clouds and rain chances.

High pressure will finally move into the area for the weekend with
below normal temperatures continuing.

Cvking

&&

Aviation: (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1149 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

I've included a short tempo group at the beginning of the taf
period for kcou due to weakening cluster of storms tracking
southeast towards the terminal. Otherwise I expect a dry night
with VFR flight conditions. A cold front will move across the area
on Monday. There will probably be isolated-scattered storms
(20-30% probability) with the front in the afternoon. However
given the low coverage and uncertainty with location and terminal
impacts, I have opted to not mention any thunder in the tafs at
this time.

Specifics for kstl:

VFR flight conditions are expected to dominate the taf period. A
cold front will move across the area on Monday. There will
probably be isolated-scattered storms (20-30% probability) with
the front in the afternoon. However given the low coverage and
uncertainty with location and terminal impacts, I have opted to
not mention any thunder in the kstl taf at this time.

Glass

&&

Lsx watches/warnings/advisories:
MO...none.
Illinois...none.
&&

$$

Weather forecast office lsx

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