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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service St Louis MO
239 PM CDT Mon may 25 2015

issued at 236 PM CDT Mon may 25 2015

Relatively quiet Memorial Day across the area in the wake of
yesterdays thunderstorms with temperatures warming into the lower
and middle 80s. Meanwhile, a wicked mesoscale convective system is currently churning
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and is associated
with the next significant shortwave that will lift northeast
toward our region tonight.



Short term: (tonight through thursday)
issued at 236 PM CDT Mon may 25 2015

Expect quiet weather to continue for any remaining Holiday
festivities this evening, with the anticipation that the northern
portion of the aforementioned MCS, likely in a decaying phase,
will be entering our southwestern counties shortly after midnight.
Large scale ascent with the shortwave should initiate additional
convection further north as well with the entire area moving
northeast through the remainder of the County Warning Area through daybreak on
Tuesday. Not sure how much redevelopment will be able to occur
Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the morning rain. Have lowered
pops from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

Have chance pops continuing Tuesday night through Thursday as a
series of weaker shortwaves are forecast to impact the area as the
upper level pattern temporarily becomes a little more zonal.


Long term: (next weekend)
issued at 236 PM CDT Mon may 25 2015

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase as the upper trough will
deepen again to our west by the end of the work week and actually
progress east into the middle Mississippi River valley by the end of
the weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for the end of may.



Aviation: (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon may 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all taf sites this
afternoon and into the evening hours unless a rogue thunderstorm
develops and happens to move directly over one of the terminals.
The chance of afternoon thunderstorms and rain appears to be higher at
kcou/kstl/ksus/kcps than at KUIN due to those sites' proximity to
an outflow boundary which moved into the region earlier this
morning. A period of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms is
expected to lift northeastward and affect all terminals late
tonight and tomorrow morning. MVFR cigs and precipitation are
expected to reach kcou around 06-09z, kstl/ksus/kcps around
08-11z, and KUIN around 10-13z. Initially southwesterly winds will
gradually back and become more southerly or southeasterly today
and tonight, then become southwesterly again towards the end of
the valid taf period.



Preliminary point temperatures/pops:
Saint Louis 71 81 70 83 / 80 70 20 50
Quincy 65 79 63 80 / 70 70 20 30
Columbia 64 80 64 80 / 80 50 30 40
Jefferson City 65 81 65 81 / 80 50 30 40
Salem 68 78 68 83 / 50 70 20 50
Farmington 65 78 64 81 / 80 60 20 50


Lsx watches/warnings/advisories:


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