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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service St Louis MO
218 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Short term: (through late this afternoon)
issued at 214 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Shortwave trough just to our north across southeast Iowa and west
central Illinois will slowly rotate/advance southeast into Ohio
River valley over the next 24 hours. This middle level feature will
provide enough lift to continue the mention of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Main surface boundary
will remain stalled along the Missouri/Arkansas border which will
keep greatest precipitation coverage and rainfall amounts south of
the County Warning Area. Cloud cover and precipitation will continue to keep
temperatures below normal with highs around 80 degrees.

Cvking

Long term: (tonight through thursday)
issued at 214 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Surface high pressure and middle/upper level subsidence in the wake of
todays shortwave will bring dry conditions for Independence day.
Afternoon highs will warm a little into the lower and perhaps
middle 80s as more sunshine is expected.

Next shortwave in this northwest upper level flow pattern will
approach/move across the region on Sunday providing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms...especially during the afternoon hours.

A more powerful storm system will traverse southern Canada on Sunday
night and Monday...dragging a cold front southeast into the plains.
The front and convection that develops along it will begin to impact
our region by Monday with a wet period shaping up through the middle
of next week. Several rounds of thunderstorms (mcs) are expected to
occur as the front becomes quasi-stationary over the lower Missouri
and middle Mississippi River valleys. This is not welcome news as
area rivers are still in flood and the ground remains saturated from
the record rainfall that occurred in June.

Cvking

&&

Aviation: (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1145 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

MVFR flight conditions over southeast and central into western
Missouri are expected to expand back to the northeast overnight
tonight. Seeing more model consistency for lowering ceilings
before daybreak Friday morning. Latest indications are that
ceilings should drop along and south of the I-70 corridor to
between 1000-2000 feet. Additionally...some light rain showers
continue to percolate over parts of the area. Don't expect the
rain to get heavy enough to impact flight conditions. Ceilings
should rise and scatter through Friday morning.

Specifics for kstl:

Expect MVFR flight conditions to build back over the terminal
sometime before sunrise Friday morning. Am not as confident on
timing, but most of the model guidance now shows the ceilings
falling to between 1000-2000 feet by 10-11z. Additionally...some light
rain showers continue to percolate over parts of the area. Don't
expect the rain to get heavy enough to impact flight conditions if
one of these showers moves over Lambert. Ceilings should rise and
scatter through Friday morning.

Carney

&&

Preliminary point temperatures/pops:
Saint Louis 82 67 83 69 / 20 10 10 10
Quincy 79 62 81 65 / 10 10 10 5
Columbia 80 61 82 66 / 20 10 10 5
Jefferson City 81 61 83 66 / 20 10 10 5
Salem 81 65 82 66 / 20 10 10 10
Farmington 80 63 81 65 / 40 20 10 10

&&

Lsx watches/warnings/advisories:
MO...none.
Illinois...none.
&&

$$

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