Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service St Louis MO
326 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Short term...(through tonight)
issued at 240 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
While some precipitation is expected today...focus will be temperatures.
Upper trough finally on the way out of the area today. There is one
Last Chance for precipitation today...then some dry weather...until
tomorrow night. Expect isod rain showers today mainly for the northern and eastern
portions of the County Warning Area. Doubtful these rain showers will look much different
than what is ongoing across eastern Iowa/northern Illinois...but become more
cellular with some heating today.
As for temperatures...trended a little cooler for today with ample cloud
cover across the area...and cooler still for tonight as the clouds
clear out of the region and light winds allowing for good
radiational cooling.
Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 240 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
The remainder of the forecast period will be dominated by a threat
of thunderstorms and rain. Not much has changed from 00z models yesterday. Models are
still in two camps...one with the mesoscale convective system track just north of the area
while the other keeps the mesoscale convective system/S traveling through the County Warning Area. The European model (ecmwf)
remains the wet solution for the County Warning Area while the GFS suggests more dry
time.
The mesoscale convective system tracks will largely depend on the strength of the upper
ridge as well as where/when the first cluster develops as well as
other mesoscale processes. Because of this...have kept probability of precipitation in the
low chance range except for those areas/times where models are in
good agreement suggesting thunderstorms and rain.
Due to precipitation questions mentioned above...have trended toward a
middle of the Road solution for temperatures with gradual moderating temperatures
through next week.
Tilly
&&
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1130 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Trough currently over Iowa will move slowly south...reaching KUIN
12-14z and kcou and the St. Louis metropolitan tafs 15-18z. MVFR clouds
currently over Iowa will move south with the trough...and have
gone with 1500ft ceilings at KUIN and 2000ft at kcou and the St.
Louis metropolitan tafs. There are some IFR ceiling in Iowa...so couldn't
rule out these lower ceilings...particularly at KUIN. Isolated
-shra is also possible...with the best chances at KUIN...so have
maintained vcsh there. West winds will veer northerly behind
trough...and then northeasterly by tomorrow evening as skies clear.
Specifics for kstl...expect trough to pass through the terminal
around 18z causing winds to veer from the north. Ceilings will
lower into the 2000-3000ft range by middle-morning before improving
back to VFR late in the day.
Britt
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Saint Louis 67 46 71 52 / 20 0 0 20
Quincy 62 42 68 51 / 20 0 0 50
Columbia 66 44 70 53 / 10 0 0 30
Jefferson City 68 44 71 52 / 10 0 0 30
Salem 66 43 69 48 / 20 0 0 10
Farmington 69 44 70 48 / 10 0 0 10
&&
Lsx watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Illinois...none.
&&
$$
Weather forecast office lsx
