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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service St Louis MO
316 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Short term: (through late this afternoon)
issued at 315 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Mesoscale convective vortex currently moving across Columbia Missouri with band of light to
moderate rain stretching from central Illinois through southwest
Missouri. As expected cold front is slowling its progress southeast
with it now located from just south of Kansas City Missouri to
Quincy Illinois. Rainfall amounts up to this point have generally
been 1 to 2 inches across central and northeast Missouri with lesser
amounts to the southeast. The near term radar trends suggest that
the band of rain will continue to push east through the St. Louis
metropolitan through sunrise with additional showers and thunderstorms
developing along the front this afternoon as it slowly sinks south
into southern Missouri and southwest Illinois. Temperatures are
tricky with the front...clouds and rain. St. Louis is still 80
degrees at 3 am in the morning. Kept the forecast nearly unchanged
with highs in the middle 70s except the far southeast zones where
lower 80s will be possible.

Cvking

Long term: (tonight through monday)
issued at 315 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Focus continues to be precipitation chances.

Cold front will continue to push southward today and push bulk of precipitation S of
the County Warning Area by this eve, or at least across the southern portions of the County Warning Area.
Have delayed timing of precipitation lifting northward back into the area until
after midnight. Some question remains how quickly the next round of
precipitation will move northward as the surface low and associated cold front lifts northward
back into the area. This system will be responsible another round of
heavy rain on Wednesday as the surface low passes through the region.

Will keep the Flash Flood Watch as-is for now, but may need to be
expanded in area as well as into Wednesday night.

As for temps, have continued a cool trend for Wednesday due to rain expected
through much of the day. Have lowered temperatures from previous forecast and
future updates may need to lower these temperatures more.

For Friday and beyond, models forecast height rises through next weekend and
have raised temperatures accordingly. Temperatures may need to be raised more from
going forecast, but some questions remain regarding placement of the
surface fnt. Models forecast the fnt remaining just north of the County Warning Area this weekend
and into next week. However, as the upper ridge builds to the W,
area comes under northwest flow and should allow the fnt, as well as storms,
to drop southward into the area.

Tilly

&&

Aviation: (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1150 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Cold front is south of KUIN and kcou and will continue moving
through south. The front will be south of the taf sites by midday
on Tuesday. In the meantime, ceilings to drop down to MVFR/IFR with
showers/isolated thunderstorms. Precipitation to taper off by middle
morning all locations. Could still see some lingering activity,
but don't want to keep 12+ hours of precipitation. Ceilings to lift to
MVFR/VFR towards end of forecast period. As for winds, south winds
to veer to the west to northwest with frontal passage, then to the
north as front settles south.

Specifics for kstl:
cold front is south of KUIN and kcou and will continue moving
through south. The front will be south of the metropolitan area by
14z Tuesday. In the meantime, ceilings to drop down to MVFR/IFR with
showers/isolated thunderstorms. Precipitation to taper off by middle
morning. Could still see some lingering activity, but don't want
to keep 12+ hours of precipitation. Ceilings to lift to MVFR/VFR
towards end of forecast period. As for winds, south winds to veer
to the west to northwest with frontal passage, then to the north
as front settles south.

Byrd

&&

Lsx watches/warnings/advisories:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau
MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby
MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis city MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.

Illinois...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Adams Illinois-Brown
Illinois-Calhoun Illinois-Greene Illinois-Jersey Illinois-Macoupin Illinois-Madison Illinois-
Monroe Illinois-Pike IL-St. Clair Illinois.

&&

$$

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