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Area forecast discussion...updated aviation 
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1139 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

issued at 927 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Warm and muggy conditions for the rest of the night with upper
level ridging over the region along with S-sely surface winds. It
appears that most of the nocturnal convection will remain north of
our forecast area for the remainder of the night, although there
may be a few showers/storms across parts of northeast MO and west
central Illinois.



Short term: (through late tonight)
issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and early
tonight over the Eastern Ozarks.


Long term: (friday through next thursday)
issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

Overall thinking remains similar to previous forecasts. An upper
level ridge is expected to remain in place through early next
week, bringing dangerous levels of heat and humidity to the
region. 850 mb temperatures of 20-24 deg c and h9 temperatures of
24-28 deg c support daytime highs in the mid to upper 90s through
early next week. Dew points are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s.
Heat index values will likely exceed 100 deg f each afternoon
across most of the lsx cwa, and some locations will likely reach
heat index values of 105-107 f. There remains a question about
whether dew points will mix out over the Ozarks on one or more
days during this stretch of hot weather, resulting in lower heat
index values. Since the heat advisory was issued primarily for
duration (4 days of heat index values exceeding 100 deg f), we
will wait to see how afternoon dew points respond and will hold
off on expanding the heat advisory to the southwest. The heat
advisory will be expanded eastward to include two more Illinois
counties after collaboration with neighboring offices. No changes
were made to the excessive heat warning.

Latest models continue to depict significant differences regarding
how/if/when the upper ridge breaks down next week. These
differences Stem from how the models handle the interaction
between a shortwave moving down the Pacific northwest coast and a
closed low over Mt/WY. European model (ecmwf)/Gem both have less phasing and nearly
develop a cutoff low over Nevada/Utah while the GFS has greater phasing
between these features and is much more progressive with the
overall pattern. Generally followed the recommended CR
initialization for the extended forecast periods pending improved
model agreement. Although there may be some isolated
thunderstorms (especially over the ozarks), there appears to be
very little chance for widespread rainfall until the middle of
next week.



Aviation: (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours
outside of any convection. Some activity has developed over far
south-central Iowa over and will have to be watched as some of
these storms may approach KUIN. Left KUIN dry though for now as
mid/upper level winds suggest aforementioned storms should move
east and stay north of site. weather to
continue with winds by day out of the southwest and at night
backing to a more southeasterly direction. Did add a thunderstorms in the vicinity group at
KUIN for Friday evening as a warm front will move northeast with
some convection firing near this boundary per latest model guidance.

Specifics for kstl:

VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 30 hours
outside of any convection. Hot/humid weather to
continue with winds by day out of the southwest and at night
backing to a more southeasterly direction. Could be some widely
scattered storms Friday afternoon as a boundary lifts to the north
and east...but left out of taf for now as probability of
occurrence of a storm affecting the terminal is quite low.



Lsx watches/warnings/advisories:
MO...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-
Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO.

Excessive heat warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for St. Louis city
MO-St. Louis MO.

Illinois...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Bond Illinois-Calhoun Illinois-
Clinton Illinois-Fayette Illinois-Greene Illinois-Jersey Illinois-Macoupin Illinois-
Marion Illinois-Monroe Illinois-Montgomery Illinois-Randolph Illinois-Washington Illinois.

Excessive heat warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Madison IL-St.
Clair Illinois.



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