Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service St Louis MO
340 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
Short term: (through tonight)
issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
Focus remains precip chances thru tonight.
Mesoscale convective vortex remnants across cntl MO shud continue to dissipate this evening.
The rain showers shud continue to slowly move ewd some this afternoon into
the evening while the more intense area of thunderstorms and rain continues to sink
south-southeast. That area shud start building more swd than southeast.
Focus then turns thunderstorms and rain activity overnight. Have generally trended twd
the GFS soln, tho other solns have similar ideas. Expect a complex
across srn Nebraska/nrn Kansas to extend into nrn MO/srn Iowa late tonight into
thurs morning. Main question will be how far east this complex builds.
Believe that as the upper trof over Minnesota continues to lift newd, the
weak sfc fnt will gradually sag swd. As the low level jet veers tonight, this
fnt shud provide a focus for thunderstorms and rain. The main question will be how far
S these thunderstorms and rain develop/propagate.
Pulled pops further S compared to the prev forecast and is some
concern these pops are still not far enuf S. With little to focus on
and given that many of these features will be impacted by
convection, have kept pops in the chance category for now.
Hopefully, timing/location can be fine tuned with future updates.
As for temps tonight, kept warm trends aoa warmest guidance due to
cloud cover and generally sly winds. Only exception is across ern
Ozarks region where low lying areas may decouple allowing more
Long term: (thursday through next wednesday)
issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
Not many changes from the prev forecast overall.
With upper air pattern becoming more amplified and upper ridge
building into the region, warming trend is expected to continue thru
this weekend. However, with rain chances each day over at least some
portion of the cwa, any storms and outflow bndys will complicate the
Mdls are in an agreement bringing an upper trof and associated cdfnt
swd into the region on Mon, possibly thru the County Warning Area by tues. That
said, am not certain this fnt will push as far swd as currently
advertised by mdls. Have therefore kept low pops behind the fnt but
did trend cooler for tues and esp on Wed.
Aviation: (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015
Dying mesoscale convective system continues to track southeastward this afternoon but feel
it will not reach stl Metro area or KUIN, so kept these tafs dry. As
for kcou, will see scattered showers through 01z Thursday.
Otherwise, main issue is the stratus that has been advecting north
across the forecast area. Cigs are beginning to lift a bit, but
remain MVFR, so kept MVFR mention through 20z-21z, then scatter
lower cigs out with lingering mid and high clouds. As for winds,
to remain light and from the southeast to south through forecast
Specifics for kstl:
dying mesoscale convective system continues to track southeastward this afternoon but feel
it will not reach stl Metro area, so kept taf dry. Otherwise,
main issue is the stratus that has been advecting north across the
Metro area. Cigs are beginning to lift a bit, but remain MVFR,
so kept MVFR mention through 20z, then scatter lower cigs out
with lingering mid and high clouds. As for winds, to remain light
and from the southeast to south through forecast period.
Preliminary point temperatures/pops:
Saint Louis 66 85 68 86 / 10 30 30 50
Quincy 64 81 67 82 / 30 50 60 60
Columbia 65 83 67 85 / 40 40 30 50
Jefferson City 65 85 67 87 / 40 30 30 50
Salem 62 82 66 85 / 10 10 20 50
Farmington 58 83 62 86 / 20 10 10 40
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