Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Southwest California area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
430 am PDT Thursday Aug 28 2014
Updated aviation...marine and beach sections
High pressure will continue the warming trend today. Gusty northwest
winds are expected Thursday night and Friday night for the Santa
Barbara area. As a low pressure trough develops over the
weekend...temperatures will cool to near normal...along with the
return of the marine layer by early next week.
Short term (today-sat)...
big honking 594 dm high over California. Gradients are very weak and in fact
the kbfl gradient should be weakly offshore by dawn. This will make
today the warmest day of the next 7. There will be plenty of triple
digit heat in the valleys and desert today. Sunny skies everywhere
expect the central coast and Paso Robles area but with the weak
gradients these clouds will not last long into the morning.
There will be sundowner tonight as the northwest flow increases there
should be enough of a push to generate gusts to 35 miles per hour especially through
the Gaviota Pass. A small eddy will spin up and the la coast will
see some low clouds develop after midnight.
There will be a little cooling Friday as heights fall slightly and the
marine layer penetrates a little further inland. In reality the
coast will be the only area with noticeable cooling inland areas
will only see 1 to 2 degrees.
There will be another sundowner Friday night and it will be about as
strong as Thursday nights but it may focus a little more over the
A broad Pacific northwest trough will push the upper high into Mexico
Saturday and heights will fall to around 588 dm. Onshore flow will
increase further and all areas will see notable cooling although
all inland temperatures will remain just above normal.
Long term (sun-wed)...
dry northwest flow sets up over the area sun and Monday. There should
be night through morning low clouds along the coast...but The Heights
should still be high enough to keep the clouds smooshed out of the
valleys. Maximum temperatures will fall to normal.
A little bit of model disagreement for the Tuesday and Wednesday forecast. The ec
now wants to develop a ridge back over area which would lead to a
warm up. The other models seem content to keep some sort of trofing
over the area. Will go with a persistent forecast for now and watch
the trends of the future model runs.
Except for IFR to LIFR conds on the central coast...in the Santa
Ynez Valley and the in Salinas valley through middle morning...expect
VFR conds through this evening. Expect IFR/LIFR conds once again on
the central coast and in the Santa Ynez Valley tonight...with ceilings
and IFR conds likely also affecting coastal sections of l.A. County
late tonight. Expect gusty northwest-north winds through and below passes and
canyons of southern sba County this evening with low level wind shear and MDT uddf near
ksba from 010-10z Friday.
Klax... high confidence in the 12z taf with VFR conditions expected
through early tonight. Much lower confidence late tonight/Friday
morning. There is a 30 to 40 percent chance that conds will remain
VFR at that time.
Kbur...very high confidence in the 12z taf with VFR conditions
expected through the period.
Marine...28/330 am PDT.
Swells from former Hurricane Marie will begin to subside across
the coastal waters today. Small Craft Advisory winds will likely continue across the
southern two third of the outer waters through at least Friday evening.
There is a 30 percent chance that Small Craft Advisory conds will
affect the northern outer waters and western portions of the Santa
Barbara Channel late this afternoon and evening.
Beaches...28/330 am PDT.
Large swells from former Hurricane Marie will continue to generate
high surf along south facing beaches through Friday. The surf will
begin to diminish today...especially this afternoon. The largest surf
will occur across south facing beaches of Ventura and Los
Angeles...with sets between 12 and 15 feet this morning. Surf this
large will have the potential to cause structural damage and
significant beach erosion. Low lying areas may also experience some
minor coastal flooding near times of high tide around noon today. In
addition...very strong rip currents and long shore currents will
continue...creating extremely dangerous and life threatening
conditions for anyone. Surf is expected to fall below high surf
advisory levels by Friday evening.
Although Ventura and Los Angeles counties will experience the worst
conditions...the southeast direction of the swell energy will also
bring high surf conditions and dangerous rip currents to the
southeast portion of Santa Barbara County. North of Point
Conception...the surf will not be as large...but elevated surf and
dangerous rip currents are likely across these areas also.
Small Craft Advisory (see laxmwwlox).
High surf advisory (see laxcfwlox).
High rip current risk (see laxsrflox).