Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Southwest California area forecast discussion...update
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
340 PM PST Wednesday Dec 11 2013
***update for new aviation discussion***
afternoon temperatures will warm into the weekend though with a
slight cooling trend on Friday. Above normal temperatures are
expected Sunday through Tuesday. Overnight temperatures remain
chilly through the week then near normal by the weekend. Dry
conditions through the next week.
Short term (today-sat)...an upper low continues to spin harmlessly
to our southwest while a narrow ridge axis lies just behind it and
extends into Oregon and Washington. We may continue to get clipped
with some high clouds at times the next 24-36 hours as the low moves
inland over northern Baja California but otherwise clear skies will dominate with
light offshore flow and mild afternoon temperatures. The ridge to our west
will give way to a trough on Friday that will drop south through
Nevada and extreme eastern California. This will have little, if
any, moisture with it and thus no precipitation. But it will briefly turn
gradients weakly onshore Friday and put a one day halt to our
warming trend. Look for most areas to drop back 3-6 degrees Friday
on average. On Saturday most areas will get those degrees back and a
few more as offshore flow returns (and some wind as well). Could be
a low end Wind Advisory event Saturday with highs back into the 70s
across lower elevations.
Long term (sun-wed)...the warming trend and offshore flow will
continue right on through Tuesday, though upper support will
disappear by Monday and Tuesday as the ridge axis moves overhead so
winds should be strongest over the weekend. Monday/Tuesday should be
the warmest days with highs into the lower 80s at least and possibly
middle 80s if the warmer European model (ecmwf) solution pans out. Models are in good
agreement showing some form of a trough developing for the latter half
of the week, though per usual differences with the track (inside or
west) exist and will ultimately determine if this is yet another dry
system (ecmwf) or possibly slightly wet (gfs). Either way, we should
begin to see some cooling Wednesday, with the precipitation threat being
either Thursday or Friday.
Aviation...11/2340z....hi confidence in the 00z taf package with
VFR conditions expected at all airfields through Thursday.
Klax...hi confidence in the 00z taf with VFR conditions expected
through Thursday evening.
Kbur...hi confidence in the 00z taf with VFR conditions expected
through Thursday afternoon.