Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Southwest California area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
120 PM PDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014
A high system will expand over the region into the weekend with
above normal temperatures...inland fair skies and overnight coastal
clouds. Breezy winds for the central coast and the mountains into
Thursday. The temperatures will peak on Thursday...then will cool a
few degrees over the weekend. Another warming trend on tap next week.
Short term (today-sat)...forecast on track and minimal changes have
been made. Highs today ended up being a skosh warmer than expected
(1-2 degrees) and would not be surprised to see a similar scenario
Thursday. That still should keep most official records in tact. The
exceptions would be sba which only has to reach 82 to equal the
previous record and Santa Maria which has a reachable 84 for a
record. Others would require a much warmer day than we are currently
Will be issuing a Wind Advisory for the South Coast of sba County
this afternoon and evening. Already starting to see wind gusts in
the low 30s at 1 PM below the western passes and canyons and I
expect we'll see gusts peaking around 40 miles per hour later today and this
Models continue to advertise the development of an eddy circulation
Friday which should result in at least a few degrees of cooling for
coast and valley areas. We may also see the return of a very shallow
marine layer with areas of dense fog possible along the central coast
and coastal la County. Similar conditions and possibly even a degree
or two cooler Sat, though even with this slight cooling trend highs
will still be 3-5 degrees above seasonal norms.
Long term (sun-wed)...very little change Sunday. High pressure will
start to restrengthen Monday and Tuesday and push temperatures back up a
few degrees. Models continue to only marginally hint at a possible
return of monsoon moisture early next week but still not enough to
include in the forecast at this time. The European model (ecmwf) is actually a little
drier than earlier runs and looks more like the GFS so will keep a
dry forecast going for now.
Moderate confidence in the 18z tafs. Expecting the marine clouds to
remain over the coastal waters with little inland penetration...so
all the taf sites are expected to be VFR through Thursday. Some low
level wind shear is possible in the vicinity of ksba this evening.
Klax...moderate confidence in the 18z taf. There is a 30 percent
chance of marine clouds reaching the airfield late tonight or early
Kbur...high confidence in VFR conditions through Thursday.
For outer waters...moderate confidence in gale force winds continuing
across pzz673/676 through tonight. High confidence in small craft
conditions through Thursday for all outer waters.
For inner waters...moderate confidence in small craft conditions
through tonight across the western portions of the inner waters.
Wind Advisory (see laxnpwlox).
Gale Warning (see laxmwwlox).
Small Craft Advisory (see laxmwwlox).