Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
954 am PST Wednesday Feb 10 2016
Possible record heat again today before gradual cooling takes place
through Saturday. A brief warm up is expected early next week before
a passing trough brings increased clouds and a slight chance of rain
*** middle morning discussion update ***
As expected it is a bit cooler this morning across the region due to
a clear sky and little to no wind to stir the lower atmosphere.
However another hot day is on tap and though some locations will be
a smidgen cooler this afternoon there will be some that are a
A gentle cooling trend continues to be expected into the weekend in
conjunction with a passing upper level trough. However there are
indications that there will be more cooling to the north of Los
Angeles County and less in Los Angeles County. Either way afternoon
temperatures look to remain above normal into early next week.
Tweaking the temperatures will be the primary focus of the day with
a secondary focus of keeping an eye on the potential for
precipitation next week. We now have a slight chance of precipitation in
the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday and that more specifically
is a slight chance of slight precipitation. But it is nice to have
something to investigate.
*** Early morning discussion ***
Upper level high pressure extending from the SW will continue
through Friday. There will be offshore flow through the period
from a large high pressure system near Utah. The offshore flow
will decrease about 1 mb each day through Friday. There is no
upper support so aside from a few puffs of wind each morning below
favored passed and canyons there will little in the way of winds.
Needless to say it will be dry and skies will be mostly clear.
Due to the very dry airmass which allows for rapid warm ups and
cool Downs maximum temperatures will be above normal (actually way above
normal due to the added kick of compressional warming from the
offshore flow) and min temperatures will mostly be below normal save for
the breezier area.
Maximum temperatures will cool 1 to 3 degrees each day as the offshore flow
weakens. Min temperatures will be similar day to day.
A weak and dry inside slider knocks down the ridge Saturday but
will do nothing more than to create partly cloudy skies and
accelerate the cooling trend (max temperatures "only" 5 to 10 degrees
The ridge reforms Sunday and skies will turn mostly clear offshore
flow redevelops from the north and there could be some I-5
corridor winds. Maximum temperatures will bump up 2-4 degrees.
Better offshore flow from the NE is now forecast on Monday as
another strong high is forecast to move into the Great Basin. If
this solution verifies there will be a need for some low end
advisories. There will be another two degrees or so of warming
across the csts and valleys but the interior may cool as colder air
moves in from the east.
On Tuesday the ridge flattens and the offshore flow weakens. Look
for partly cloudy skies and cooler (but still above normal temps)
Both ec and GFS continue to advisories a medium rain system for
the area next Wednesday.
Long range forecast pattern models continue to indicate a pattern
shift late this month and in early March.
At 1800z...at klax...there was no marine layer.
High confidence in 18z taf package as weak offshore flow will
keep all sites VFR through the taf period.
Klax...high confidence in ceiling and visibility unlimited 18z taf. East winds will remain
below 7 kts.
Kbur...high confidence in ceiling and visibility unlimited 18z taf.
for the outer waters...moderate confidence with current forecast.
By Friday...seas will increase as a long period northwest swell
develops across the outer waters. There is a 60 percent chance
that small craft advisories will be needed for the outer
waters...especially the western portion.
For the inner waters...high confidence in current forecast. For
the waters north of Point Sal...winds and seas will remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels for both winds and seas through
Thursday night. On Friday and continuing through the weekend...
there is a chance of Small Craft Advisory condiitons as north to
northwest winds increase and large long-period northwest swell
moves in. For the waters south of Point Conception...winds and
seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
through the weekend.