Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Southwest California area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
1034 am PDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Synopsis...

Above normal temperatures are forecast into Saturday as high
pressure and offshore flow persist. The high will move east by late
Saturday...bringing stronger onshore flow..a return of overnight
coastal clouds and a cooling trend...which continues into next week.

&&

Short term (rest of today-sun)... high pressure aloft with weak
offshore flow turning to weak onshore flow will bring another hot
day across the area before cooling kicks in Saturday. Some slightly
warmer high temperatures south and slightly cooler north but overall
temperatures across the area will be well above normal. The slightly
warmer highs south combined with more attainable records should
bring more record highs than yesterday. The high finally begins to
move eastward tonight to usher in a return to overnight clouds at
least in lb and lax in addition to Theall central coast. A stratus
deck is marching towards the central coast from offshore this
morning so good confidence in stratus there tonight. A very
noticeable cooling trend for Saturday although still above normal
for all except the immediate central coast. It's not until Sunday
that additional cooling will bring temperatures almost everywhere below
normal. Will feel like winter compared to what it's been like the
past week.

Along the sba South Coast and nearby canyons...expect north and
northeast winds again tonight...likely similar to last night then
stronger tomorrow night and Sunday night.

Forecast update was issued to tweak highs over the central coast
that should be warmer than previously forecast.

***From previous discussion**

Long term (mon-thu)... persistent West Coast troffing will continue
through the entire extend period. There will be night through morning
low clouds across the coasts and valleys throughout the period. Maximum
temperatures will fall below normal Monday and will remain there through
the period.

&&

Aviation...28/1800z

Middle/upper level trough of low pressure over the eastern Pacific will
gradually approach. Upper level light west-southwest winds will
become moderate southwest after 29/12z while middle level light west
winds prevail over the area. Marine capping inversion base was on
the surface this morning. The base will differ by plus .7kft
Saturday morning and the cloud field is expected to be scattered
over the bight and overcast along the central coast. Weak onshore
pressure gradient through 29/02z and after 29/20z otherwise weak
northerly gradient.

Marine layer at lax at 1600z is 0 feet deep and the inversion top is
at 1725 feet with a temperature of 31.9 degrees c.

Klax...likely current sky/visibility conditions will persist through
29/12z. Chance ceilings 003 visibility 3sm br between 29/12-29/16z and visibility
5sm haze 29/16-29/18z.

Kbur...likely current sky/visibility conditions will persist.

Virtually certain - 95-100%
very likely - 80-95%
likely - 60-80%
chance - 30-60%
very unlikely - 20% or less

&&



Marine...28/900 am.

Small Craft Advisory conditions with northwest winds will likely
return over an area from Point Arguello to the Santa Cruz basin
Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. And there is a chance
occasional gale force gusts will exist in the vicinity of Point
Conception Saturday evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely exist from
Piedras Blancas to the Santa Cruz basin Sunday through Monday
morning with occasional gale force gusts.

&&

Lox watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

Public...Jackson/rorke
aviation/marine...30
synopsis...seto

Www.Weather.Gov/losangeles

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations