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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 
425 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA EVENT
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)

MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5 TO -6 MB TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAVORED PARTS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON LIFE SUPPORT BUT
WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE'LL
SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY. 

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT TUESDAY SO WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE
MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A
BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS TO AT LEAST TREND
ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S WED-FRI. STILL
A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TWIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/200 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER SATURDAY THAN THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/200 PM.

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING IN VENTURA COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT. THE
NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET THIS
EVENING. LOW TIDE AROUND ZERO FEET HAD OCCURRED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TIDE NEAR 4 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
NEAR 6 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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