Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Southwest California area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
220 PM PDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Synopsis...
a weak ridge aloft will form on Sunday bringing above normal
temperatures away from the coasts. A low pressure system will move
through the area on Tuesday with minimal rain chances. Below normal
temperatures and potentially very windy conditions are expected
Tuesday and Wednesday. Some warming to follow Thursday and
Friday...before another system approaches with cool and windy
conditions again.

&&

Short term (today-monday)...
weak ridging aloft will continue to push into the area through
Monday...keeping the warming trend that commenced today going into
early next week. Temperatures should be up around 5 degrees on
Sunday...with valleys and mountains about 10 degrees above normal.
Nearer to the coast...temperatures will remain near normal but will
be mostly dependent on the always temperamental marine layer.
Temperatures on Monday should be about the same as Sunday. Below
advisory but gusty northwest winds are expected in southern sba County
tonight...and over gusty southwest winds over inland section on
Monday.

The stratus has cleared completely out of our area today...but with
the northwest winds over sba tonight fueling a healthy coastal eddy
over la County on Sunday morning...have to expect some low clouds
forming. How far to the north they go if they do form is a tough
call. The central coast will see some light offshore flow that the
forecast is banking on keeping most of the stratus away on Sunday.
With less of that on Monday...and no northwest flow over
sba...expecting a shallower marine layer but a little more stratus
coverage along the coast.

Long term (tue-fri)...
a trough is still on track to form off the low that is currently
just west of the alaskan Panhandle. This trough will quickly swing
through California on Tuesday...with a rapidly drying front zipping
down the West Coast. More likely than not...this front will not
produce any precipitation in our area...but there is a 20 percent chance
that it will hold together long enough to bring a shower to western
slo County on Tuesday. More importantly a 110 knots westerly jet will
fuel strong northwest flow behind this front...bringing widespread
gusty winds Tuesday and Wednesday. Expecting the need for many wind
advisories...as well as possible high wind warnings for southern sba
County...the I-5 corridor and the Antelope Valley. Temperatures will
plummet with the cold air behind the front...but there should
be plenty of sunshine after Tuesday morning as the winds and
cold air trump the marine layer.

A weak ridge will form over the area Thursday and Friday with weak
offshore flow focused over the central coast. This should bring
plenty of warming back to near or just above normal. Extended models
are in agreement for another mostly dry trough passing through over
next weekend. As it is tracking now...it looks more like another
wind producer than a rain maker.

&&

Aviation...19/1800z.
Good confidence in limited marine cloud coverage tonight and early
Sunday with the best chances of cloud coverage from koxr southward.
The marine layer depth south of Point Conception is roughly 1500
feet...but the marine inversion is quite weak so coverage may be on
the spotty side.

Klax...good confidence in MVFR conditions with marine cloud coverage
late tonight into Sunday morning.

Kbur...high confidence in VFR conditions through Sunday.

&&

Lox watches/warnings/advisories...
Small Craft Advisory (see laxmwwlox).
Marine weather statement (see laxmwslox).

&&

$$

Public...kittell
aviation...Sweet
synopsis...seto

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