Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
146 PM PST Monday Feb 8 2016
High pressure and gusty offshore winds will bring well above normal
temperatures this week with possible record temperatures today and
Tuesday. The high will weaken at the end of the week for a cooling
trend...however temperatures will remain above normal.
Near or record high temperatures on the coastal side of the
mountains through Wednesday and continue warming trend with near
or record temperatures on the inland side of the mountains through
Thursday. High Wind Warning for the high country in Ventura and
Los Angeles counties will end this afternoon but wind will likely
remain gusty and advisory conditions will persist through Tuesday
afternoon in the high country as well as the valleys in Ventura
and Los Angeles counties and including the Santa Monica Mountains.
Offshore pressure gradient will persist through the period but a
weakening trend is likely through Thursday. Temperatures will
differ by plus 2 degrees Tuesday from today and 20 to 30 degrees
above normal. Cooling trend is expected Wednesday through Thursday.
Temperatures will differ by minus 5 to 10 degrees on Wednesday
from Tuesday on the coastal side of the mountains and differ by
minus 3 degrees on Thursday from Wednesday but temperatures will
likely remain 5 to 15 degrees above normal.
Have made minor changes through the period. Relatively low
confidence as a long wave ridge persists along the coast and a
cyclonic circulation develops south of the area and west of
central Baja California. Low confidence in position of the low center and the
amount of moisture that will shift north within the cyclonic
circulation and move over the area. Will continue dry at this
time on Monday but added partly cloudy skies. Have adjusted
temperatures up Sunday a couple of degrees on the coastal side of
the mountains...a Pacific Ridge of high pressure is expected to
move ashore Saturday night which will increase the offshore pressure
gradient Sunday morning. Unseasonable temperatures will continue
and there is a chance they will be 5 to 15 degrees above seasonal
normal through the period.
At 1710z at klax...there was no notable inversion.
High confidence in the 18z ceiling and visibility unlimited tafs. There is a chance of low-
level wind shear and turbulence at terminals south of Point
Klax...high confidence in the 18z ceiling and visibility unlimited taf. VFR conditions will
prevail throughout the forecast period. There is a 20 percent
chance of low-level wind shear and turbulence. Any east winds will
remain 7 knots or less.
Kbur...high confidence in the 18z ceiling and visibility unlimited taf. There is a 40 percent
chance of low-level wind shear and turbulence.
The winds will diminish to below Small Craft Advisory level
criteria this afternoon but will remain elevated through Tuesday.
Winds will be particularly gusty near shore and below passes and
canyons. Winds will increase again Tuesday morning...but speeds
are expected to remain just below advisory criteria. Another large
northwest swell will move into the coastal waters on Friday.
No changes to previous thinking...as red flag warnings will remain
in effect for Ventura County and Los Angeles County (except for
the Antelope valley) through 600 PM this evening. Strong
northeast winds along with low relative humidity will generate
critical fire weather conditions.
Offshore winds will weaken tonight but it will still be very warm
and dry. So...there will continue to be an elevated fire weather
risk through Tuesday...and even a chance that critical fire
weather conditions may continue across sections of Ventura and Los
California...red flag warning in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for
zones 40-41-44>46-53-54-547-548. (See laxrfwlox).
Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for
zones 40-41-548. (See laxnpwlox).
Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones
44>46-53-54-547. (See laxnpwlox).
Pz...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
for zones 650-655. (See laxmwwlox).