Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Southwest California area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
340 am PST Tuesday Jan 27 2015
it will be cloudy with a slight chance of a light shower this
morning mainly over the higher terrain. Skies will clear later this
afternoon. A little warmer and breezier Wednesday. Then a little
cloudier and cooler for the end of the week. A ridge builds in over
the weekend...with Santa Ana winds and warmer temperatures.
Short term (today-fri)...
rainfall amount from last nights showers fell right into line with
the forecast with tenth to a quarter inch amounts across most of the
area the only exception was the eastern San Gabriel coastal slopes
where about a half inch fell.
A 565 dm upper low sits atop of Santa Barbara County early this
morning. The main vorticity lobe associated with this low is moving through
sba and slo County and this will bring a slight chance of light showers
to the area this morning. A weaker secondary vorticity lobe may bring a
few early morning showers to areas south of Point Conception. This
afternoon the showers will be confined to the interior sections and
even then mostly just the higher terrain. Mostly cloudy this morning
with some reduction in clouds this afternoon. Offshore surface flow is
quickly weakening and maximum temperatures will fall.
A quick little pop up ridge moves over the area Wednesday and heights
move up to about 576 dm. Offshore flow sets up at the surface as a 1029
mb surface high moves into northern Nevada. There is little in the way of
upper or thermal support so winds will likely be in the 15 to 25 miles per hour
range. Maximum temperatures will bump up under sunny skies and rising heights.
A longwave trough moves into the area Thursday and lingers into Friday
evening. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. The ec stands alone
and forecasts rain over the eastern portion of l.A. County through the
whole period. Kept the 20 percent chance of rain for the mountains and av
because of this...but really do not think there will be anything.
Maximum temperatures will cool but will likely still be at or a degree above
Long term (sat-mon)...
another ridge-tastic weekend on tap as all long range models forecast
a 577 dm ridge nosing into the area from the SW. Offshore flow each
morning will bring some Santa Ana winds through the canyons. At this
time the winds do not look that strong. Afternoon maximum temperatures will
rise into the middle and upper 70s across most of the coasts and valleys
cool spots like Pismo Beach and Cambria will even reach 70 degrees.
The ridge breaks down Monday and the offshore flow weakens. Skies
should remain mostly clear but maximum temperatures will drop especially at the coast.
At 0515z at klax... there was no inversion at klax.
high rip current risk (see laxsrflox).