Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Southwest California area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
130 PM PDT Monday Aug 31 2015
..afternoon marine discussion...
Near normal temperatures and night through morning low clouds and
fog will persist through the week. There may be slight warming late
in the coming weekend.
Short term (today-thu)...West Coast trough appears to be here to stay
for at least the next 10 days. Will likely see a couple more degrees
of cooling the next couple days, then just minor fluctuations going
into the weekend. A 2000-2500' marine layer will push into the valleys
the next few nights and clear to near the coast by afternoon.
Long term (fri-mon)...not much change through Saturday. Models
suggesting a slight warmup late in the weekend into early next week
but given the position of the trough we may ultimately see little
change. Dry southwest flow will keep the monsoon moisture well to
At 1555z...the marine inversion at klax was around 2200 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was around 2600 feet with a temperature of 21
North of Point Conception...patchy fog was clearing this morning and
patchy to areas of low clouds and fog are expected tonight into
Tuesday morning. Good confidence in the forecast.
S of Point Conception...areas of low clouds and fog were clearing
this morning and areas to widespread low clouds and fog are expected
tonight into Tuesday morning with areas of low clouds even spreading
into the La Valley taf sites. Good confidence in the forecast.
Klax...good confidence in the 18z taf. There is a 30 percent chance
of the arrival time of low clouds and MVFR conditions will vary more
than plus or minus two hours from the forecast.
Kbur...good confidence in the 18z taf. There is a 30 percent chance
of the arrival time of low clouds and IFR to MVFR conditions will
vary more than plus or minus two hours from the forecast.
Outer waters...good confidence in Small Craft Advisory level winds
north of San Nicolas Island lasting until early Tuesday morning.
Inner waters...good confidence in the inner waters forecast. There
will be local small craft gusts across the western third of the sba
channel and in western portions of the inner waters adjacent to the
central coast later this afternoon and evening.
Small Craft Advisory (see laxmwwlox).