Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky
113 am EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

..updated aviation discussion...

..Forecast update...
issued at 904 PM EDT sun Mar 29 2015

Overall, the current forecast remains on track. Did back off clouds
and precipitation across southern Kentucky as clouds will thicken later
and precipitation will be confined to later periods overnight. Also
brought pops up slightly across southern in and northern Kentucky to be
more in line with the 3km hrrr runs. This will lead US to see the
best chances of rain across southern in for the next several hours
and then across northern/central Kentucky later this evening and into the
early overnight hours. Precipitation will end well before sunrise,
so have backed off pops for the late overnight period. Otherwise,
other forecast elements look OK and have some small adjustments have
been made here and there.

Short term (now through Monday night)...
issued at 300 PM EDT sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon's temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
Continental U.S.. a sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.

Long term (tuesday through sunday)...
issued at 231 PM EDT sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa. While a shower or two can't be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent pops for

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect US Thursday through Friday
night. The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we'll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night. Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability. The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available. Obviously, though, it's much too early to say anything
definitive. Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
Central Plains to the Carolina coast.


Aviation (06z taf update)...
issued at 110 am EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Narrow band of light rain showers already past the sdf terminal and
soon will be past bwg/Lex as well. Front is not too far behind, with
wind shift to northwesterly. Model forecasts continue to be
optimistic on clearing out these clouds, which are VFR-based anyway,
soon after frontal passage. Satellite imagery agrees with this
thinking as well. Winds will become more variable by late this
afternoon and overnight as high pressure builds into the Tennessee


Lmk watches/warnings/advisories...


short term.....Jsd
long term......13

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations