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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky
650 am EDT Tue may 5 2015

..updated aviation discussion...

Short term (now through wednesday)...
issued at 300 am EDT Tue may 5 2015

Upper level ridging has slowly started to strengthen over our region
and will continue to do so in the short term period. Sfc high
pressure centered to our southeast will continue over the next few
days also. These features will generally result in a dry forecast.
However, some of the models continue to indicate a few isld
showers/storms may be possible during the afternoon/evening hours.
If this is true, isld convection may bubble up after we surpass
convective temps. These very small chances of precip look more
likely for Wed than today. However, most areas will stay dry and
with the lack of moisture and a trigger, will continue with a dry
forecast overall today and tomorrow. There's about a 10% chance
someone might see a stray shower or storm around or just after peak
daytime heating today and Wed.

As for temperatures, the airmass will slightly warm over the next
few days under a weak southerly flow. Also, as the ground gets
drier, sfc temps will be able to peak a little higher each
afternoon. For today, we'll stay in the 82 to 87 degree range for
highs...a degree or so warmer than yesterday. Under good rad
cooling, overnight lows tonight should drop into the mid 50s to
around 60. Wednesday's highs should range from 83 to 88.

Long term (wednesday night through monday)...
issued at 239 am EDT Tue may 5 2015

General upper ridging will help to suppress most convection through
the end of the work week. Over the weekend, though, the ridge will
edge to the east and will allow southwest flow to set up first over
southern Indiana, then gradually into central Kentucky as well.
Disturbances riding this flow from the Southern Plains to the Great
Lakes will bring the chance of scattered showers and storms. Shower
and storm chances will continue into Monday as a surface front
approaching from the west further enhances the chance of rain.

High temperatures will be in the 80s each day. The warmest 850
temps occur over the weekend but actual surface temps may be
tempered somewhat by clouds and scattered showers/storms. Dew
points through the period will range from mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

Aviation (12z taf update)...
updated at 650 am EDT Tue may 5 2015

VFR conditions are expected as upper level ridging slowly builds
over the region. Winds are expected to be calm or light southerly
this morning with some light fog at bwg around dawn. Winds during
the daylight hours today will be out of the south-southwest around 8-10 knots.
Scattered cu is expected to develop by mid day with some upper level
clouds possible as well. Winds will decrease in strength again this
evening.

&&

Lmk watches/warnings/advisories...
Kentucky...none.
In...none.
&&

$$

Short term........ams
long term.........13
aviation..........ams

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