Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky
718 PM EDT Wed Mar 12 2014
..updated aviation discussion...
Short term (now through thursday)...
issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Mar 12 2014
First, plan on cancelling the Wind Advisory before the afternoon
package GOES out. Winds are still strong but below criteria across
the County Warning Area. The wind should continue to decrease through the overnight
hours. High pressure will build into the region on the northwest
flow. This will slowly decrease winds overnight and plummet
temperatures into the teens north and east to the mid to lower 20s
Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...
issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Mar 12 2014
A warm front will move through the area early Friday bringing above
normal temperatures back to the region. Friday night an upper level
short wave will swing through possibly resulting in some very light
and cold rain. However, the latest model runs are starting to
indicate less of a chance of restrict the chance to the north. Will
make that call closer to press time. Now Saturday we will be between
a system to our north and another to our south. The GFS still keeps
quantitative precipitation forecast painted over the area, however the sref...NAM...ECMWF keep US
dry during the day. Then the consensus for rain increases Saturday
night. Albeit very low quantitative precipitation forecast amounts expected. Sunday now appears to
be the best chance of rain this weekend. Still low quantitative precipitation forecast for Sunday.
Models are not in total agreement with timing on Sunday. Thus, will
allow differences to work themselves out with that. It will likely
yield low pops but over an extended period due to the difference in
timing of the models and residual grids. The forecast appears to be
dry early next week. However, we do have a cold front poised to move
through Wednesday. This may result in at least some low pops for mid
Temps will rebound to near normal Thursday to much above normal
Friday. Over the weekend looks to be nearl normal temps then warming
slightly as we head into next week.
Aviation (00z taf update)...
updated at 701 PM EDT Wed Mar 12 2014
Strong surface low responsible for today's return to winter will
quickly move off the New England coast over the next few hours, with
the pressure gradient continuing to slacken over the taf sites. As a
result, winds will continue to diminish out of the northwest through the
evening. Also expect enough low level moisture to linger through the
evening to keep mention of light snow showers in the vicinity of
airports. This could also lead to some brief periods of MVFR
ceilings, although latest visible satellite imagery shows some
scattering upstream. Oddly, the best low level moisture fetch should
actually impact bwg/sdf more than Lex through the late evening,
which is unusual behind a departing system. Surface high pressure
settles in on Thursday with vrb winds becoming SW in the afternoon.
Skies will be VFR and mostly sunny.