Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky
646 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

..updated aviation discussion...

Short term (now through sunday)...
issued at 258 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

An elongated ridge of high pressure sliding across the region from
northwest to southeast will provide US with a very nice autumn
weekend. Some moisture may get trapped in the low levels today,
resulting in patchy clouds especially this morning into early
afternoon south of the Ohio. Still, with some sun peeking between
the clouds, northeast breezes around 5 to 10 mph, and highs of 65 to
70, we'll have a decent fall day.

Tonight will be clear and calm with the center of the high moving
overhead. Though dry air will be filtering in from the north, it
still looks like a good set-up for radiational fog. The best chances
will be in southern and eastern sections of central Kentucky where
the most rain fell on Friday and where the high will be overhead the
longest at the most climatologically favored time of day for fog

Sunday looks ideal with sunshine, a light breeze, and afternoon
temperatures in the 70s.

Long term (sunday night through friday)...
issued at 306 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Not much to get excited about in the long term this time around. As
the period starts Sunday evening, an upper level trof will be moving
through the northern plains, heading toward the Great Lakes and
central Ohio Valley by 00z Tuesday. Moisture is lacking with this
system, with dew points barely inching above 50 along the Ohio River
ahead of the cold front accompanying the trof. Slightly higher
surface moisture closer to the Tennessee border will help
precipitation chances for the southern part of the forecast area,
but even there, thunder is unlikely, and showers should not provide
as much rain as some areas saw yesterday.

By sunrise Tuesday, the showers will have exited to the southeast,
and the remainder of the week remains dry and seasonally cool as we
return to northwest flow aloft ahead of a broad reintensifying
ridge over the western U.S.

Monday promises to be the warmest day of the work week, with highs
in the mid to upper 70s, just above seasonal norms. After the cold
front and Showers Pass through that evening, high temperatures for
the rest of the week will be just below average for the second week
of October, ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Lows will be
around 50 Sunday night and Monday night, then dip into the mid 40s
for the remainder of the week.


Aviation (12z taf update)...
issued at 646 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Low ceilings have been struggling to form overnight, but over the
past couple of hours they have finally started to gel over the Blue
Grass and appear to be spreading west/southwestward. So, will
continue with the idea of a stratocu ceiling right around the
MVFR/VFR border this morning at Lex and bwg. Will tenuously leave
sdf just on the VFR side of the line for now, but some forays
slightly under 3k feet aren't out of the question until about 15z.

Otherwise, high pressure will bring quiet weather to the region.

Areas of fog are expected to develop tonight, mostly over southern
and eastern sections of central Kentucky. Will just introduce MVFR
br for now, but this may need to be lowered significantly in future
updates, especially at bwg.


Lmk watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term........13
long term.........Jbs

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations