Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky
310 am EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
Short term (now through thursday)...
issued at 248 am EST Wed Nov 25 2015
The region will remain on the western edge of surface high pressure
through the short term period. Southerly winds and ridging building
aloft will bring warming temperatures today through Thanksgiving.
Highs today will top out in the the upper 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Thanksgiving reaching into the mid to upper 60s. Dry
conditions will prevail through this period, though some increased
cloud cover can be expected Thursday ahead of a slowly approaching
cold front. Winds will pick up in the afternoons with gusts to
around 20 mph expected.
Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...
issued at 309 am EST Wed Nov 25 2015
Quite an active and wet pattern will set up for much of the long
term with multiple rounds of rain expected. The first round will
move in to southern in during the pre-dawn hours on Friday as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. The front will slowly sink into
the region and then stall out somewhere likely just south of the
Ohio River. For Friday the best chance for rain will be along and
north of the Ohio River. Rain chances will slowly spread east and
continue through the overnight hours Friday night.
For Saturday into Sunday an area of low pressure will track
northeast along the stalled frontal boundary. Moisture will continue
to increase across the lower Ohio Valley through this time period,
fueled in part by Hurricane Sandra in the eastern Pacific, which is
slated to make landfall in Mexico. Fairly widespread rainfall is
looking likely, particularly Saturday night into Sunday morning as
the low tracks across the region. This system should move out Sunday
afternoon/evening with just scattered showers expected in its wake
Sunday night and Monday morning.
Models then begin to diverge as far as precipitation chances go. A
low pressure system will develop across the upper Midwest in
association with a cutoff upper low. The exact placement of this
system and how much moisture will be available Monday evening
through Tuesday varies between the models. For now will carry just
chance pops as this system swings another cold front through the
All in all, rainfall totals from Friday through Tuesday will vary
from an inch and a half to around 3 inches, with some isolated
higher amounts possible. Southern Indiana and west central Kentucky
will have the highest rainfall totals, with the lowest across east
Temperatures are not expected to vary much from day to day in the
long term. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 50s with lows
ranging from the low 40s in the north to the upper 40s in the south.
Aviation (06z taf update)...
updated at 1227 am EST Wed Nov 25 2015
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast. A high pressure
system to the east will keep conditions pleasant as it sets up along
the East Coast. We might see some southerly gusts around 15-20 knots
today, especially at bwg and sdf, but otherwise we'll have nice
weather with some high clouds passing overhead.