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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky
1028 am EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

..forecast update...
Issued at 1025 am EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Updated the forecast to remove fog wording as much of the fog has
burned off or will shortly. The rest of the day should be mostly
sunny to partly cloudy with an isolated shower or storm possible
over south central and west central Kentucky. A few storms have formed
over southeast MO this morning and are moving east, but think that
they will at least weaken if not dissipate by the time they reach
our region to due to capping/subsidence from the ridge in place.
High temps still look to top out in the mid to upper 80s.

Short term (now through tuesday)...
issued at 305 am EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy south-southwest flow as a
front approaches the area from the northwest. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. Pops late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for severe will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

Long term (tuesday night through sunday)...
issued at 308 am EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley. This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast Ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00z, 12z) that has shown this. Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central Kentucky.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow. Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what's left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front. Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern Kentucky. With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area. There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley. This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we've seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s. This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

Aviation (12z taf update)...
issued at 650 am EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Main challenge is how long the fog will persist in bwg, which has
been mostly socked in for the last couple hours. Will most likely
initialize LIFR, with a gradual lifting of the fog/stratus by
mid-morning and finally scouring out late morning.

Lex briefly went to IFR earlier, but at the moment is running VFR.
Will initialize prevailing VFR, but probably include a tempo for
MVFR but that will be a last minute decision.

Expect light SW winds and shallow diurnal cu this afternoon. Not
expecting a repeat of the fog tonight, as the gradient tightens up
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed overnight. Planning period
at sdf will see increasing SW winds and a VFR ceiling, but not
enough confidence to put any precip in the taf yet.

&&

Lmk watches/warnings/advisories...
Kentucky...none.
In...none.
&&

$$

Update.........Ams
short term.....Ras
long term......kjd
aviation.......Ras

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