Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
329 am PDT sun Jul 5 2015
Synopsis...the threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue
each afternoon this week. Expect temperatures to gradually cool
off through the week.
Short term...today through Monday. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected today. The best coverage/chance for
storms will be along the i80 corridor and along the Highway 50
corridor in White Pine County. Latest hrrr guidance hints at a few
strong cells in each location. Latest guidance has increased shear
slightly...so this seems reasonable. Not expecting any severe
weather...but gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the
stronger storms. Precipitable waters are still 0.8 to around 1.0 inch across the
north...so heavy rain could be a threat. Dry air will be moving
south to north across central Nevada...which should end convection
quickly across northern Nevada heading into the evening.
On Monday...another round of unsettled weather is anticipated.
This time...central Nevada stands the best chance for precipitation.
NAM/GFS/shref agree nicely on location of precipitation in association
with favorable difluent/divergent flow in the NE quadrant of the
approaching low. Shear will again be weak...so only expecting
pulse/multicelluar storms. Precipitable waters will lower to 0.75 inches...so
drier storms are expected. Given the drier nature of the
storms...gusty winds will be the main threat from any storms.
Long term...Monday night through next Saturday. The unsettled
pattern will continue although no significant event seems in the
Monday night through Wednesday. The models are in good agreement for
this period. Low pressure will be anchored off the California coast
and the Great Basin will be under a persistent diffluent flow aloft.
Showers and thunderstorms should affect all of northern and central
Nevada. However convection should be diurnal in nature.
Wednesday night through Saturday. The models are losing congruence
at this juncture. The GFS model is showing the upper low off the
Pacific coast moving inland and through northern Nevada while the
European model (ecmwf) model keeps the low stationary for a little longer...throwing
short wave impulses across the state due to its eccentric rotation.
The ensemble suggestion is for the upper low to brush Nevada as an
open wave later this week. Either way...convection should favor
northern and western Nevada and should continue to be diurnal.
Aviation...showers and thunderstorms will occur again Sunday across
much of northern and central Nevada. All taf sites could be
Fire weather...expect storms across northern Nevada...with drier
storms in central Nevada. All storms are expected to be wet.
Precipitable waters drop on Tuesday...with possible hybrid storms. The stormy
pattern will continue through the week...potentially increasing in
northwest Nevada later this week as an upper-level low moves in.
Modest/good relative humidity recoveries are expected each night.