Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
205 PM PST Tuesday Nov 24 2015
Synopsis...a strong winter storm will move into northern and
central Nevada tonight and Wednesday bringing snow and very cold
temperatures. Much below normal temperatures will continue through
the weekend. Some moisture will wrap around the departing system and
hit the rubies and parts of northeast Nevada into Friday.
Short term...tonight through Friday. Strong upper low off the
coast is moving according to the short term models and the
previous forecast package is well put together. Only a few changes
and will mention in a moment.
As of this writing warm front is moving into Idaho from northwest
Nevada. Cold front just entering northwest Nevada. This system will
slide east through this evening and exit the state Wednesday
morning. Patches of light rain fall in between the warm and cold
front with an area of rain along the front but over the sierras. As
the front moves in very much colder air behind it will quickly turn
the rain to snow. Any wet spots will flash freeze.
Expecting 1 to 4 inches of snow in the valleys with the front,
except across northern Nye County where less than 1 inch is
expected. By Wednesday afternoon upper low will be centered over
north central Nevada with good wrap around snow across northern Elko
County...eastern Humboldt County...and the Ruby/East Humboldt Range
into late Thursday as the upper low tracks east along Interstate 80
and low pressure lobes form on the west side of the low. Looks like
5 to 10 inches of snow in the valleys of northern Elko County and
northern Humboldt County. Therefore have retained the Winter Storm
Warning. For the rest of northern and central nv(except northern Nye
county) kept the Winter Weather Advisory.
Note: wrap around moisture and a decent upslope will affect
northeast Elko County and Ruby/east Humboldt ranges. Have increased
quantitative precipitation forecast and snow amounts there...especially in the rubies/east humboldts
for Thursday. There is a hint that Great Basin np may get a western
upslope later Thursday and Friday but have not change that at this
Long term...Friday night through next Tuesday. Upper level low
remains over the Great Basin Friday night into Saturday. May see a
few light snow flurries into the weekend with partly to mostly
cloudy skies...along with well below normal temperatures. Low ejects
east Sunday into early next week with decreasing cloud cover along
with continued below normal temperatures as the flow aloft becomes
northerly. Quite a bit of model uncertainly next week as models try
to get a handle on another storm system approaching the West Coast.
European model (ecmwf) model keeps the County Warning Area dry Monday through Wednesday...while the
GFS begins to spread light precipitation into western Nevada as
early as Monday night.
Aviation...gusty winds across portions of central and western
Nevada this afternoon. May see some periods of gusty winds into the
evening hours ahead of a cold front that will move into the region
this evening and overnight. The approaching storm system will bring
moist and much colder air to the region. Heaviest precipitation is
expected across northern Nevada...with light to moderate snow
across central Nevada.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Thursday for northern Elko County.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 am PST Thursday for Humboldt
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 am to 4 PM PST Wednesday for
south central Elko County-southeastern Elko County-White Pine
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 am PST
Wednesday for northern Lander County and northern Eureka County-
Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range-southern Lander County
and southern Eureka County-southwest Elko County.