Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
333 am PDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Synopsis...above normal high temperatures continue on Wednesday
along with isolated thunderstorms. Cooler on Thursday with
increasing showers and thunderstorms...especially over eastern
Elko and White Pine counties where stronger storms are expected.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend with a
continued threat of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

Short term...today through Thursday evening. Upper trough over
the Pacific coast pushes inland and increases southwest flow over
the Great Basin. Some haze from northern California fires may push
this far east. Weak instability and increasing moisture push from
tropical system Odile over the deep southwest will increase
thunderstorm activity...especially Thursday and especially over
eastern White Pine...northeast Nye...and eastern half of Elko
County. Between a weak jet streak...middle level trough with
sufficient dynamics...and low level moisture/instability Thursday
may actually produce some severe thunderstorms with brief heavy
rains...downburst winds...and hail. Waiting to see if shear is
strong enough to cause rotation in the storms sufficient to call
them lp supercells. Steering winds in the 20-30 knot range so
local minor flooding may result...but storms will need to slow
down to cause persistent heavy rains and serious flash flooding.
Bb

Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday. Southwesterly flow
will initially dry US out as we head through Friday into Friday
night with precipitable waters lowering and forcing diminishing. However...things
area looking considerably more interesting over the weekend. GFS
and ec both close off a low near San Francisco Thursday
night...and both plow the low slowly but surely eastward into
California and then Nevada by Sunday. This low in turn entrains
another dose of tropical moisture northward into our region which
would result in another round of showers and thunderstorms with
concerns which have repeated themselves multiple times this
season...severe weather and flash flooding. Upped probability of precipitation and sky
cover Saturday and Sunday with this modeling shift. As the low
pushes northeast and weakens Monday and Tuesday...moisture levels
and forcing will drop...with reductions in pop and sky cover.
Temperatures will remain warm with a ridge in overall control
(this is a closed low stuck underneath)...with sky cover/precipitation
the main limiting factor in temperatures. Rcm

&&

Aviation...VFR ceilings/visible next 24 hours all terminals. Winds
gusting into the 20 knot range this afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms possible across northern Nevada this afternoon and
evening. Rcm

&&

Fire weather...winds/rh may set up over northwest Nevada to
approach thresholds but not clear cut and so will not issue any
rfw's today. Similar situation will set up over central and
eastern Nevada Thursday...however...increasing moisture from the
dying tropical storm over the southwest U.S. Will likely keep the
rh's up. Increase in thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday
into Thursday evening over much of the fire district. The wettest
storms will be east of line from around Jackpot to Carlin to
Austin...and including essentially all of zone 455 and large part
of 457. Storms will be moving on the order of 20-30 miles per hour and will
produce brief heavy rains. Lightning will strike outside the rain
cores in the dry areas. Note: confidence level is moderate that
the above scenario will occur as the models have been in general
agreement about this... but...but...but...there have been some
serious discrepancies between the major models so keep in mind
that changes may occur to the forecast. Please call with any
questions or concerns. Bb

&&

Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

98/93/93/98

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations