Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
344 am PST Monday Mar 2 2015
Synopsis...moderate to locally heavy snow showers across central
Nevada through this evening. Light to locally moderate snow
possible across both central and northern Nevada later today
through Tuesday. Dry Tuesday night on through the weekend...with
high temperatures climbing back into the 50s by Thursday.
Short term...today through Wednesday. Snow is spreading up into
central Nevada early this morning...with 0.09 inches of quantitative precipitation forecast at
Tonopah as of 3am. Snow shower activity will drift north and east
early this morning to at least Highway 50...slightly further
north across eastern Nevada...likely reaching up into southeastern
Elko County by late this morning. Moderate to locally heavy snow
is expected across much of east-central Nevada late this morning
into the early evening hours. Decent cape and slightly negative
lifted indices over northeastern Nye and southern White Pine
County during the afternoon hours will enhance snow showers at
times...with isolated thunderstorms possible. Issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for northwest Nye and White Pine counties which is in
effect through 10 PM this evening.
Later this afternoon and early this evening models have clouds
reaching over most of northern Nevada...with a slight chance of
snow showers in Humboldt and Elko counties. Not expecting any
travel difficulties today along and north of Interstate
80...although a few flurries will be possible. Snow showers taper
off this evening across central Nevada...and begin to increase
over northern Nevada. Snowfall this evening and night will be
relatively light...with the main focus of shower activity being
over the mountains of southern Lander County...northeast across
the Ruby Mountains and up over the Independence Mountains of
north-central Elko County. May see a dusting to a half in of snow
to valley locations near these mountain areas. Some more light
snow lingering over eastern Nevada Tuesday morning. Dry and colder
Tuesday night into Wednesday as skies clear and cold northerly
flow aloft dominates.
Long term...Wednesday night through Sunday. Models in good
agreement that a strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the
region through the period for dry weather with afternoon temperatures
climbing to around 10 degrees above normal by Friday.
Aviation...a stream of moisture moving up from the south will
bring widespread snow to much of central Nevada today with IFR
conditions the predominate condition at the ktph terminal until
around 21z today and at the kely terminal until around 23z today.
VFR conditions will prevail at the kwmc and keko terminals with
about a 15 percent chance of a snow shower after 22z briefly lowering
conditions to MVFR.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
northeastern Nye County-White Pine County.