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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
244 am PST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Synopsis...high pressure will bring pleasant late Fall weather to
the region through Thanksgiving. The chance for rain and snow
increases by late Saturday into Sunday as Pacific moisture and a
cold front approach northern Nevada.


Short term...Wednesday through Friday. 500mb ridge axis will
crest over the Great Basin today through Thursday. This will bring
fantastic weather with well above average temperatures and mostly
sunny skies. Expect high temperatures to reach into the 50s at most
locations with some of the lower elevation valleys reaching near
60. More of the same on Thanksgiving with just a few more high
clouds across the north compared to today.

Friday heights aloft begin to fall in response to an approaching
Pacific northwest 500mb shortwave trough. 700-500mb moisture will
be on the increase so expecting mostly cloudy skies north with
partly cloudy skies across central Nevada. Temperatures will also begin
to trend down...but it will still remain above average with highs
in the upper 40s. No precipitation is expected though at this time.

Long term...Friday night through Tuesday. Active weather pattern
expected through the long term. At the onshore flow
will be in place aloft as a shortwave moves inland over the Pacific
northwest. This will funnel moisture into northern Nevada while
areas further south remain mostly dry. Snow levels should remain
mostly above the valley floors. A separate shortwave will move
inland from the Pacific early Sunday with a possible increase in
precipitation coverage...though at this time am hesitant to make a
large change to the forecast just yet. Ridging will build over the
area Sunday night and Monday with most precipitation moving out of
the state...before a strong low approaches the coast towards
midweek. Still a lot of uncertainty about just when it moves
inland...with the Euro lagging it until Wednesday while the GFS
brings it through Tuesday. Either way...middle of the week looks
stormy...with some snow possibly reaching the valley floors after
the trough passes. Temperatures will generally slide downward
through the period. Rcm


Aviation...VFR ceilings and visible with light winds through next 24 hours
at all terminals. Rcm


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...



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