Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
319 PM PDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Synopsis...a low pressure system approaching the region from the
north will bring breezy to windy conditions through Thursday.
Temperatures will begin a cooling trend during the latter part of
the week, falling to well below normal by the weekend.

Short term...tonight through Thursday. Strong low pressure system
moving southward into the Pacific northwest will bring breezy to
windy conditions to northern and central Nevada on Wednesday. Southwest
winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour with gusts up to 45 miles per hour are expected. Another
breezy to windy day on Thursday for central Nevada. High temperatures
will top out on Wednesday with highs in the then begin a cooling
trend on Thursday. Enough moisture and instability late Thursday
afternoon for isolated showers and thunderstorms over far
northwest Humboldt County.

Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday. Models have come into
better agreement with the timing and track of a trough prognosticated to
drop down the Oregon coast Thursday night into Friday...before
pushing east across northern California and Nevada Friday night into
Saturday. Ahead of the approaching trough expect some increasing
clouds...gusty afternoon winds...and temperatures trending lower. By
Friday showers will begin to impact the mountains of northern
Humboldt and Elko counties. Friday night as the trough axis moves in
over Humboldt County...700 mb temperatures will lower to around -4c with
snow levels lowering to around 7500 feet. While models have come
into better agreement on the position of the trough...discrepancies
remain with respect to precipitation amounts. The Canadian and GFS
models both keep the bulk of the troughs moisture north of
Nevada...while the European model (ecmwf) is much wetter...bring valley rains and
high elevation snow to most of Humboldt and Elko counties on
Saturday. All models are showing the trough exiting northeast into
Idaho Saturday evening...leaving cool and dry conditions over
northern and central Nevada. Still looking at the potential for a
frost advisory late Saturday night into Sunday morning across Elko
County with the expectation that skies scatter or clear out as the
trough exits northeast. At this time expecting low temperatures
across most valley areas of Elko County to drop into the low to middle
30s Sunday morning...although higher elevation valley locations may
dip into the 20s if skies do clear out in the drier northwesterly
flow aloft. Warmer and drier on Sunday...with temperatures climbing
back above normal by Monday. May see another surge of monsoon
moisture approaching east-central Nevada by next Tuesday. For now
increased clouds across east-central Nevada early next
week...however held off on introducing any precipitation...although
both the Canadian and GFS models now show precipitation reaching up
to Great Basin National Park next Tuesday.

Aviation...VFR conditions at all terminals across northern and
central Nevada for the next 24 plus hours. Winds will be gusty
across the region Wednesday afternoon.

Fire weather...strong low pressure system approaching from the
northwest will bring breezy to windy conditions on Wednesday. This
combined with min relative humidity falling below 15 percent will bring critical
fire weather conditions. Issued red flag warning for all zones
except 454 and 455 where fuels are above critical values. Critical
fire weather conditions will continue on Thursday in zone 457.
Winds are expected to remain below critical fire weather criteria
on Friday but could come close in the southeastern portion of zone

Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning from 11 am to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for central
and western Humboldt County-eastern Elko County-eastern Humboldt
County and northwestern Elko County-southwestern and central
Elko County.

Red flag warning from 11 am Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for
northern Nye County/Lander and Eureka counties south of Highway




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations