Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
336 PM PDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...an upper level low will continue to push across the
Great Basin. Isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds will continue
into the evening. Expecting temperatures to drop over night...many
valley locations will dip below freezing. Mild and dry weather expected
for the remainder of the week.
&&
Short term...tonight through Friday. The nam12 clearly pings
into a swath of instability in the northern Great Basin...but the
juiciest convection will materialize north of the lkn County Warning Area this
evening. There are few lingering cells along the Oregon and Idaho
border but nothing overtly ominous over the lkn County Warning Area. Tonight
expecting radiational cooling across the Silver state and the
temperatures will plummet after sunset. Issued a frost advisory
for portions of northern Nevada for tonight and expiring at 7 am PDT
tomorrow. As the cyclonic flow pushes to the eastward...expecting dry
conditions to settle into the Silver state.
Long term...Friday night through Wednesday. Short wave ridge starts
out the long term with tranquil weather conditions across the Great
Basin for Saturday into Sunday. A dry west to southwest flow will
prevail allowing temperatures to moderate over the weekend with
afternoon high temperatures reaching near normal values Sunday
afternoon.
The short wave ridge gives way to some short wave energy approaching
S Oregon/north calif Sunday night into Monday. The European model (ecmwf) is stronger with
the upper trough and associated surface front than the GFS. Have
leaned toward the European model (ecmwf) with the focus of instability mainly across
northern areas where we will keep the mention of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night and Monday. Expect it to remain dry across the
remainder of the County Warning Area.
Thereafter...a deep trough off the Pacific northwest coast will
result in a broad southwest flow of dry and warmer air for the Great
Basin Tuesday into middle week. This will place temperatures well
above normal with readings well into the 80s and lower 90s.
&&
Aviation...VFR ceilings/visible through next 24 hours. Main issue is gusty
winds...continuing into this evening at all terminals. Some gusts
may exceed 30 knots. Winds diminish later this evening...then will
pickup in the 10 to 20 miles per hour range Thursday afternoon.
&&
Fire weather...convection will continue into the evening...but not
anticipating any of the cells to become svr-worthy. The corfidi
vectors averaged about 20 knots...soaking rains not expected. Snow
was observed in Carlin...Jarbidge and Tuscarora today. The bigger
concern this afternoon were the widespread single digit rhs and
gusty winds that materialized. Expecting single digit rhs again
tomorrow...however...the wind will be more mild. The Haines
indices are not that impressive yet for the ensuing 48 hour period.
&&
Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...
frost advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 am PDT Thursday for
Humboldt County...northern Elko County...northern Lander County
and northern Eureka County...south central Elko County...
southern Lander County and southern Eureka County...southwestern
Elko County...White Pine County.
&&
$$
97/89/89/97
