Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
242 am PDT Thursday Jul 2 2015
Synopsis...showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon
and evening through the Holiday weekend as hot temperatures
Short term...today through Friday. A line of showers continues
to move north through northern Nye and White Pine counties this
morning. This line is producing a few lightning strikes however
all convection should desist by 3 am PDT. The models are in good
agreement showing that the daily thunderstorm activity will
continue with some nocturnal convection again tonight.
High pressure will be centered over the Great Basin for the next
couple days. However the synoptic high will be modifying and thus
will promote a surge of moisture into the lkn County warning forecast area. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to be focused along and south of
Highway 50 as well as areas east of the Ruby Mountains
today...generally the same areas of development as on Wednesday.
There is plenty of nocturnal cape showing overnight so
thunderstorms will likely continue through the night...especially
along and south of Highway 50. Precipitable water values where
convection is expected will be around 1 inch today and may
increase on Friday towards the western County warning forecast area as additional moisture
gets pulled up. Thunderstorm coverage will increase as a result. Temperatures
will continue to be very warm under the ridge with 100 degree plus
temperatures expected each day for some areas.
Long term...Friday night through next Thursday. Models are in good
agreement through the weekend. Increasing spread is noted by the
middle of next week.
Current high pressure across the area will begin to drift back to
The Four Corners region through the weekend. This will allow for
some slight cooling...but temperatures will still be in the 90s to around
100 in places. Upper-level low off the cali coast and fch over the
SW will spread ample moisture northward this weekend. This will set
the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday through Monday looks to be the busiest days across Nevada
..with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable waters will be quite
high with many locations above 1 inch. Continued to bump up probability of precipitation and
moisture levels. As for severe weather...too early to predict. Cape
will be quite high...but shear looks to be marginal at best. Best
day for severe weather would be Saturday as a piece of energy tracks
across NE Nevada. This will increase flow and shear. Another
threat...maybe the bigger threat...will be from flash flooding.
Regardless of steering motion...favorable moisture advection and
moisture could result in training thunderstorms...which will likely
produce heavy rain. This will need to be watched through the
The active period will continue through early next week...but precipitable waters
will dip back to ~0.75 inches. Best chance for storms will be mainly
north of Highway 50 early in the week. Chances for precipitation will
decrease and be confined to northern Nevada by the middle/end of
next week. Expect cooler conditions as heights relax a bit.
Aviation...most areas have cleared...with the exception of some
middle/high level cloud decks. Another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity/thunderstorms and rain is expected
later this afternoon. Best chances for convection will be
kely/ktph/kwmc. Keko is on the northern fringe of the moisture...but
decided to keep thunderstorms in the vicinity. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible
through the afternoon associated with ts.