Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
225 PM PST Wednesday Feb 10 2016
Synopsis...a strong ridge of high pressure will bring cool but dry
weather to northern and central Nevada for the remainder of the
work week. Freezing fog will be a concern each morning. A weak
disturbance may bring some light showers to northern Nevada over
the weekend. A stronger system is expected to bring some rain and snow
to the Great Basin around the middle of next week.
Short term...tonight through Saturday. It is clear across eastern
Nevada this afternoon. The axis of the high pressure ridge is
currently striking through Winnemucca and Tonopah. Most of the
fog burned off between 9am and 10am this morning and although
areal coverage was apparent...no dense fog was reported. Infrared
satellite imagery shows a persistent deep fog bank west of
Wendover abutting the east side of the Toano and Goshute mountain
ranges. Wendover has been carrying a low ceiling all day. The
current low amplitude ridge is periodically very dirty and clouds
are spilling into western Nevada at this time. The models are in
agreement for the short term period. Other than fog...there will
be a slight risk for showers across northern Nevada this weekend.
Tonight through Friday. In a weakly progressive pattern...the
axis of a broad high pressure ridge will slowly move east. There
will be periods of high clouds moving through the low-amplitude
ridge however with the absence of low to middle clouds...there should
be enough nighttime radiation to allow temperatures to drop into
the single digits. The substantial snowpack should inhibit any
significant warming across eastern Nevada. Daytime temperatures
should continue to slowly crawl upwards towards the 40 degree mark
across most of eastern Nevada...and above the 50 degree mark in
some areas to the west with less snow on the ground. As the
snowpack slowly dissolves...freezing fog will be a possibility
across mainly eastern Nevada the next two mornings.
Friday night through Saturday. The models are in agreement
proposing a weak short wave to brush the state. There may be a few
showers erupting across northern Elko and Humboldt counties with
little snow accumulation expected. The short wave could be just
strong enough to mix the surface environment and help boost day
and night temperatures by a few degrees.
Long term...Saturday night through Wednesday. The models are in
pretty good agreement through Wednesday.
Saturday night through Sunday night. A couple weak short waves
will skip through the eastern edge of the Pacific Ridge pattern
to incite a few showers mainly north of Interstate 80.
Monday through Tuesday night. This should be a dry period. The
upper level pattern will become more progressive and high pressure
will roll east through the lkn County warning forecast area.
Wednesday. A short wave low may begin impacting western Nevada
early Wednesday morning although there is some discrepancy in
model timing that far out. Snow levels may start out around 7000
feet so Wednesday may not be a concern weather-wise.
Aviation...patchy fog is expected to develop Thursday morning.
Vlifr ceilings and possibly vlifr visible may affect keko Thursday morning
between 14z and 17z. VFR conditions can be expected outside of
those hours at keko through Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected at kwmc kely and ktph through Thursday afternoon.