Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
219 PM PDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015
Synopsis...high pressure will remain in place across northern
Nevada for the next few days...bringing quiet and warm weather. A
storm system across the eastern Pacific will slowly move east and
north by Thursday...bringing increasing chances for isolated
showers and thunderstorms to mostly central Nevada. By Friday and
Saturday...chances for precipitation will spread to all of
Short term...tonight through Thursday. Very quiet conditions are
currently across northern Nevada. Not much can be seen from the
satellite loop...and with the abundant sunshine...temperatures
have responded nicely. Current readings are in the upper 70s to
low 80s. A ridge of high pressure is responsible for the quiet
conditions...and they will continue this evening.
Models are in good agreement with regards to the upper level
ridge maintaining its hold over northern Nevada for Wednesday.
Temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer tomorrow by a
degree or two over this afternoon's values. There will be a little
more sky cover tomorrow afternoon as high level moisture begins to
move northward from the south. Winds will remain light.
By Thursday...the upper level trough that has been hanging over
the eastern Pacific...southwest of California...will start to move
northeast. This will help to bring in moisture along with
instability...and the potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorms mainly south of the US Highway 50 corridor Thursday
afternoon. Highs will continue to remain above normal.
Long term...Thursday night through next Monday. Long term models
are in decent agreement Thursday night through the middle portions
of the upcoming weekend. From there...some differences start to creep
The upper level low pressure system will be across Southern
California Thursday night and Friday. This will keep the chance
for isolated showers and storms in central Nevada. Winds will be
light...while afternoon highs will be in the low 70s in the
central and upper 70s to low 80s in the north.
Models continue to show the upper level system slowly creeping
northeast Friday night and Saturday. Have increase probability of precipitation across the
forecast area...with temperatures remaining above normal. Winds
will continue to remain light.
Saturday night and Sunday...the storm system is not expected to
make much headway through this time. As a result...thinking there
will be moisture and instability for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms over northern Nevada. Temperatures will continue
to remain above normal...with readings in the upper 60s to low
Aviation...conditions will be VFR for the next 24 hours.
Fire weather...high pressure will be over northern Nevada for the
next day or so...resulting in dry and warm conditions. A storm
system will begin moving north Wednesday night and
Thursday...bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend.