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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN 
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER 
THAT REGION EXISTS AN AREA OF WEAKNESS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE 
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN 
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE THAT AREA ANOTHER PLUME OF 
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF 
ERIKA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF 
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TODAY. NOT MUCH OF 
THIS IS BEING REALIZED BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE SO HAVE KEPT 
MINIMAL POPS FROM MORNING FCST UPDATE. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES OCCUR 
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE ZONES 
FOR ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS MISSED 
IT FOR THIS MORNING AND SIMILAR LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD 
YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG. 

.LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON 
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND MOVE EAST THRU FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT 
TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY BUOYANT 
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM 
DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40 PERCENT POPS 
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO 
THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE 
SUBSIDENCE. COULD EVEN SEE COVERAGE UP TO 50 PERCENT BY SUNDAY.
 
MEFFER 
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040. 
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME 
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND 
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. ONLY 
TERMINAL WHERE THREAT MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION THIS FAR OUT 
IN FORECAST WOULD BE KHUM. 35 
 
&&

.MARINE... 

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK 
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE 
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY 
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF 
THE GULF. 35
 
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT... 
DSS CODE....GREEN. 
DEPLOYED...NONE. 
ACTIVATION...NONE. 
ACTIVITIES...NONE.  
        
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND 
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION 
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT 
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY  
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT 
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES 
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  72  93 /  10  20  10  30 
BTR  74  92  72  93 /  10  20  20  30 
ASD  72  91  73  91 /  10  20  20  30 
MSY  77  91  76  90 /  10  30  20  40 
GPT  75  90  75  90 /  10  20  20  30 
PQL  73  92  74  90 /  10  20  20  30 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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