Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
303 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOSEST SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS IN
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES EXCEPT AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT WHERE THE
COOLER WATER ON LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN HAS HELD THE TEMPERATURE IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. DEW POINTS ARE QUITE A BIT...ABOUT 10 DEGREES...HIGHER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
LEVELS TO INCREASE SLOWLY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN 20 PERCENT POPS
THOUGH. 

GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM ON LOW TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT BY ABOUT A
CATEGORY AT MOST LOCATIONS. WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS IN PLACE...LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT...BUT WILL NUDGE
LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. BEYOND SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER...BUT
WILL UNDERCUT MAV NUMBERS BY A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO MET VALUES.
35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT BEYOND
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE 00Z RUNS. FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOSES MOST OF
ITS PUSH BEFORE REACHING THE GULF. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY
COOLING A FEW DEGREES. 

BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVE STRONG UPPER TROFS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY. ECMWF SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH ITS
TROFFING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE RIDGING RETURNS TO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.
HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE MEX DATA BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT NOT
NEARLY TO THE LEVELS THAT WERE INDICATED BY LAST NIGHTS ECMWF. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR STATUS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-30 HOURS WITH
SEVERE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND MINIMAL WIND. 24/RR


&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW KICKS IN FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD FRONT. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONGER
NORTH WINDS WILL RETURN BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME HEADLINES LIKELY ON FRIDAY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN. 
DEPLOYED...NONE. 
ACTIVATION...NONE. 
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. 
          
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED  
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY 
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES 
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR               
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL          
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  84  59  84 /   0   0  10   0 
BTR  52  86  58  85 /   0   0   0  10 
ASD  52  83  56  83 /   0   0  10  10 
MSY  58  83  64  84 /   0   0  10  10 
GPT  55  82  59  81 /   0   0  10  10 
PQL  50  82  54  82 /   0   0  10   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations