Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
313 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Synopsis...

High pressure centered over the Ohio River valley this morning
with the axis of the high extending southwestward to the Texas
Gulf Coast. Clear skies throughout the area this morning. Winds
have not totally decoupled in most areas...and this has allowed
most temperatures to remain in the 40s away from marine
influences.

&&

Short term...

High pressure will remain in control through about midday
Thursday. A shortwave will move across Texas into the northern
Gulf Thursday into Friday. Models have had difficulties with
timing on southern stream systems several days out this
month...and that trend continues. GFS has become somewhat of an
outlier solution with its quicker movement and less developed
system. Have trended toward the European model (ecmwf) solution...but not quite as
high on rain chances. Main area of precipitation will likely
remain offshore. Best rain chances will be Thursday night for our
area and mainly in eastern sections.

Only see about 3-5 degrees of warming today and tonight as ridge
axis remains west of US. Moderation will continue Thursday into
Friday with temperatures finally returning to near normal by
Friday. 35

&&

Long term...

Timing issues will continue in the southern stream...although
differences in the 00z runs are not as great as the past few days.
Both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS have a shortwave passing just north of the
area Monday or Monday night. With surface high anchored along the
coast...most of the precipitation is expected to remain north of
the area. Will carry small rain chances where models are in
agreement. Temperatures for the weekend are expected to be near
seasonal normals...and a bit above normal for early next week. 35

&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the
forecast period at the terminals. The exception may be toward the
very end of the forecast period when MVFR ceilings may impact the
taf sites across the southern half of the forecast area toward
daybreak Thursday. 11

&&

Marine...

Strong offshore flow early this morning will gradually ease and
become more easterly as the morning progresses. A Small Craft
Advisory for all but the tidal lakes and sounds will continue until
6am. Thereafter...those areas will join the tidal lakes and sounds
with small craft should exercise caution headlines through 10 am.
Generally moderate easterly flow will then prevail through Saturday
before becoming more southeast on Sunday. 11

&&

Decision support...

Dss code...blue.
Deployed...none.
Activation...none.
Activities...slurry support
monitoring river flooding.
Small Craft Advisory

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate to high risk severe
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National
significance

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 64 44 69 54 / 0 10 10 30
btr 66 48 72 58 / 0 10 10 30
asd 64 48 70 56 / 0 10 10 40
msy 64 53 70 61 / 0 10 20 40
gpt 65 53 70 59 / 0 10 10 40
pql 64 48 70 56 / 0 10 10 40

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am Wednesday for the following
zones: coastal waters from Boothville la to the Southwest
Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 nm...coastal waters
from Pascagoula MS to Stake Island la from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from Pascagoula MS to Stake Island la
out 20 nm...coastal waters from Port Fourchon to lower
Atchafalaya River from 20 to 60 nm...coastal waters from
Port Fourchon to lower Atchafalaya River out 20
nm...coastal waters from Stake Island la to the Southwest
Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm...coastal
waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon from 20 to 60 nm...and coastal waters from
the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port
Fourchon out 20 nm.

MS...none.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am Wednesday for the following
zones: coastal waters from Boothville la to the Southwest
Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 nm...coastal waters
from Pascagoula MS to Stake Island la from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from Pascagoula MS to Stake Island la
out 20 nm...coastal waters from Port Fourchon to lower
Atchafalaya River from 20 to 60 nm...coastal waters from
Port Fourchon to lower Atchafalaya River out 20
nm...coastal waters from Stake Island la to the Southwest
Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm...coastal
waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon from 20 to 60 nm...and coastal waters from
the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port
Fourchon out 20 nm.

&&

$$