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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
832 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Sounding discussion...
there were no problems with the upper air release this evening.
The 00z sounding indicated that drier air has worked into the middle
levels. The precipitable water value was 1.97 inches...down from
2.29 inches in the 12z release this morning. The atmosphere was
somewhat unstable above a near surface inversion...but less so
than was indicated in the sounding earlier today. Moderate south
to southwest winds prevailed from the surface up to about 400
mb...with generally westerly flow observed above that level. 11


Previous discussion... /issued 348 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Short term...
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
evening hours. These storms have been efficient rain producers and
even caused some minor flooding in some areas but nothing too
major over our area. Wind gusts with the deeper convection have
reached into the 60 miles per hour range but that was an extreme case. The
atmosphere has been worked over some and we do not expect those
gusts to get that high this evening. The current radar trends have
been showing the strong convection weakening some however there is
more development to the west from Baton Rouge and points south.
Will have to watch this area through the evening...but we do
expect the rain to break up some as we go through the night.
Expect a little less coverage tomorrow we only have a 30 percent
chance in the forecast tomorrow. 13/mh

Long term...
have not made any major changes in the forecast. After this
system...upper ridging moves back into place over the area for
most of next week. Expect convection to be mainly afternoon and
early evening with isolated to low end scattered areal coverage.
The GFS still wants to show a weakness in the ridge and the European model (ecmwf)
does not show this. Have continued with the previous thinking in
keeping the forecast more toward a GFS solution. Temperatures
should be at or above normal through the forecast period. 13/mh

mostly moderate rain showers with embedded thunderstorms will affect all
taf airports through 23z. Tonight is expected to have much less
coverage of shra/ no mention will be included in
the tafs after 00z. MVFR to VFR conditions will generally prevail
outside of rain areas...possibly trending toward more widespread
MVFR late tonight/early Sunday morning due to patchy fog and low
ceilings. 18

winds will remain elevated through the early evening hours with
exercise caution in effect through 7 PM. Ridging will build back
into the area and southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots
will be the rule through Wednesday...possibly peaking slightly
over 15 knots at seas will generally range from 3 to 5 feet...perhaps
a bit higher over the far west Sunday night...and on the lower
end on Wednesday.Times Sunday night west of Southwest Pass.

Decision support...
Activities...slurry support. Monitoring radar.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate to high risk severe
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National


Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 74 91 74 91 / 60 30 30 30
btr 75 92 75 91 / 60 30 30 30
asd 75 91 75 91 / 50 20 30 30
msy 78 91 79 91 / 50 20 30 30
gpt 77 91 76 90 / 60 20 30 30
pql 75 91 76 90 / 40 20 20 30


Lix watches/warnings/advisories...


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