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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
429 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

cold front...from north Georgia to South Alabama to Baton Rouge
to Houston...will push through the forecast area this morning. An
isolated shower or two will be possible but east of the forecast
area. Weak cold air advection will result in highs a few degrees
cooler than the last few days...but not as cool as what we saw
last weekend. Expect highs to top out in the low to middle 80s. With
drier air moving into the area...expect overnight lows to see a
more significant difference. Sunday and Monday mornings lows
should be about 7 to 10 degrees cooler than this morning lows.

A second cold front looks to pass through the area on Tuesday
followed by another surge on Thursday. Middle Range model show
moderate cold air advection Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning and Thursday morning through Friday afternoon. Upper level
trough will become positioned from Hudson Bay to the eastern
Seaboard driving a surface front through the area. This trough
along the East Coast and ridge over The Rockies will maintain
northwest flow over Mississippi Valley and keep thickness layers
from rebounding...thus keeping low temperatures near norms to slightly
below norms for next week. Limited moisture and near none instability
are expected with the second front and rain chances will remain
slight Monday night and Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected
Tuesday to the next weekend.



An inversion will bring patchy fog to kmcb and khum through around
14z. This inversion will clear after 14z as drier air aloft begins
to mix down to the surface. Visibilities and ceilings could fall
into IFR range at times before the inversion lifts at these
terminals. Once the inversion lifts...VFR conditions will be the
prevailing conditions at all of the terminals. 32



Offshore flow of between 5 and 10 knots will develop today and
linger through Monday in the wake of a passing cold front. The wind
field will turn more variable and fall to around 5 knots Sunday
night and Monday as a weak area of high pressure slides through the
northern Gulf. Increasing southwest flow of 5 to 15 knots will
develop Monday night in advance of an approaching cold front...with
winds then shifting to the northwest and north and increasing to 10
to 15 knots for the remainder of the week. Seas will range from 1
to 3 feet for the entire period. significant weather
impacts are expected over the coastal waters through the middle of
next week.


Decision support...

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused watch/warning/advisory
issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate risk severe and/or direct
tropical threats; events of National significance


Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 80 55 83 54 / 10 0 0 0
btr 83 55 84 55 / 10 0 0 0
asd 82 56 81 55 / 10 0 0 0
msy 84 62 82 61 / 10 0 0 0
gpt 81 59 81 57 / 10 0 0 0
pql 81 56 81 53 / 10 0 0 0


Lix watches/warnings/advisories...


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