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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
808 am CST sun Feb 7 2016

Sounding discussion...
ground equipment problems continue to prevent successful sounding.
Parts for repair are on order. 95/dm


Previous discussion... /issued 227 am CST sun Feb 7 2016/

Short term...
very progressive but dry pattern will continue. Upper troughing
will continue to maintain the expansive Rosby wave over two thirds
of the Continental U.S.. once the cold front passes Monday morning...dry cold
air will simply replace the same. But this time a little more wind
will accompany along with some cloudy skies moving in from the
north. This should be all we see with this system. As the upper
thermal trough moves out...a few short waves moving down the back
side of the larger Rosby wave will move near the area providing
cloudy skies from time to time. Otherwise...dry cool conditions
will remain through the week.

Long term...
another dry front will move through Wednesday. The one after that should
be in for the weekend. This front is expected to stall near the
coast and does not look to have any real chance of producing
precipitation either...but what is being resolved in the mass fields is
quantitative precipitation forecast that looks like rain along the frontal boundary. This would
not be the case as the fcasted environmental inversion in sounding
profiles over the frontal region would be at least moderate enough
to keep any sh/ts from developing. Therefore what the model mass
fields look to be resolving is very thick dense fog for next
weekend...which would make a lot more sense. But this is a long
way out for fcasting fog which can be very tough even 24 hours

VFR conditions will continue at all of the terminals through the
forecast period.

a surface ridge will settle over the area this afternoon and
evening allowing for a temporary easing of winds and seas. By
Monday...a reinforcing Arctic front will push into the area. As
the Arctic ridge builds in behind it...strong boundary layer winds
of 35 knots will easily mix down to the surface beginning Monday
night and persisting through Tuesday. Sustained winds of 30 knots
with frequent gusts to near 40 knots will be likely. Small craft
advisories and gale watches have been issued for Monday and into
Tuesday. The pressure gradient over the Gulf will begin to relax
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as the surface high becomes
more centered over the area.

Decision support...
Activities...river flooding continues on Mississippi/Pearl rivers.
Monitoring marine areas for increased winds and
seas/gale watch

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused watch/warning/advisory
issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate risk severe and/or direct
tropical threats; events of National significance



Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 58 38 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
btr 60 39 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
asd 58 42 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
msy 58 43 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
gpt 58 43 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
pql 58 42 56 34 / 0 0 0 0


Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...gale watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for

Small Craft Advisory from 3 am to 3 PM CST Monday for gmz530-532-

GM...gale watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for

Small Craft Advisory from 3 am to 3 PM CST Monday for gmz532-534-



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