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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
420 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2014

Short term...
a more active radar over the forecast area today and expect this
to continue through early this evening as a weak low well south
in southern Texas. Abundant moisture will be in place tonight
and into tomorrow as precipitable water values will be well over
2 inches across the area tomorrow. Have increased the probability of precipitation to 100
percent tomorrow across the western portions of the area...mainly
areas west of Interstate 55. Other areas will be in the likely
category tomorrow. It looks as the moisture will interact with an
upper trough across the Central Plains and elongate over the area.
The storm motion should be high enough where convection should not
sit over an area...however...we will have to watch for the
orientation of the rainfall as there still can be some training
over the same areas. With all of this moisture around and with the
reports that we have received today expect these storms tomorrow
to be heavy rainfall producers. Again we will definitely have to
watch the flooding potential tomorrow. 13/mh

Long term...
not much change in the forecast over the long range. Will stick
close to last issuance. Rain chances should decrease next week as
the trough to the north races northeast and upper ridge builds
back in across the southern half of the United States. Models
still show high pressure building back in as a more typical
summertime conditions come back into the picture. Both GFS and
European model (ecmwf) are still showing a weak tropical wave moving across the
Yucatan Peninsula and into Mexico going into the middle of next
week. Will be something to monitor although no tropical threat
exists at this time. 13/mh


despite all the convection cloud bases have mainly been
above 3k feet. Now when convection moves over the terminals status drops
to MVFR and IFR with both vibys and ceilings falling but both improve
quickly even in light rain. Overnight rain could be an issue but
look for convection to hold off until early tomorrow morning. /Cab/


a weak wave is currently over the northwest Gulf. This will
increase the pressure gradient and push winds into the exercise
caution range tonight. As the tropical wave moves inland the
gradient will weaken on Sunday. With the ridge still in
place...southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will be the rule from
Sunday through Wednesday. Seas will generally range from 3 to 5
feet through the end of the forecast period.


Decision support...
Activities...slurry support..

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate to high risk severe
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National


Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 74 87 74 89 / 60 100 50 50
btr 75 87 75 91 / 70 100 50 50
asd 76 89 75 91 / 50 70 50 40
msy 79 90 78 91 / 70 80 50 40
gpt 78 89 77 90 / 50 60 40 40
pql 77 90 75 90 / 50 60 40 40


Lix watches/warnings/advisories...


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