Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
350 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Discussion...
upper trough situated over the Great Lakes and middle Mississippi
Valley early this morning will shift east today and be reinforced
over the eastern U.S. Friday by another upper trough over eastern
Canada. This system will push a backdoor cold front across the
area Friday which will provide for a delightful late may weekend
featuring cooler nights and very comfortable humidity levels.
Prior to this frontal passage however...somewhat humid conditions
will persist today along with small rain chances in a few areas.
Some drier air in the middle and upper levels has worked its way into
the region which will inhibit convection...however daytime heating
may result in a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over
the southern and western most sections of the forecast area where
the best and deepest moisture will most likely reside. Isolated
convection will again be in the offing tonight and again for at
least part of the day Friday as the aforementioned cold front
approaches and then advances across the region.
Ridging at all levels and dry air will prevail across the central
Gulf Coast region over the weekend. The upper level ridge will
weaken early next work week before building again toward middle week
in response to the evolution of an upper trough over the western
Continental U.S.. some moisture return by middle week could yield very isolated
convection. 11
&&
Aviation...
currently...all forecast terminals VFR with the exception of khum
which is reporting IFR conditions. Low cloud curves are showing
development of stratus and fog over portions of the area south of
Lake Pontchartrain...and expect this trend to continue and spread
northward through 12z. MVFR to IFR conditions likely at all
terminals for several hours through 15z before returning to VFR
conditions for the remainder of the day.
With the weak pressure gradient expected to remain in place for
about another 24 hours...low cloud/fog development expected to
return early Friday morning. 35
&&
Marine...
weak pressure gradient has led to a light wind field across the
coastal waters this morning...and this will remain in place for
24-36 hours until high pressure bridges into the area from the
north. This will bring offshore northeasterly flow to the area on
Friday...with a reinforcing surge late Friday night or Saturday
morning. Will probably need headlines in the eastern waters Friday
night or Saturday morning...but should remain below advisory level.
Onshore flow returns Saturday night and Sunday...with southeast
winds expected Sunday morning through the end of the forecast
period. Pressure gradient may tighten enough by middle week next week
to necessitate headlines again...mainly in the western waters. 35
&&
Decision support...
dss code...blue.
Deployed...none.
Activation...none.
Activities...slurry support.
Monitoring river flooding.
Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate to high risk severe
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National
significance
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 89 65 87 58 / 20 20 10 10
btr 90 69 89 63 / 20 20 20 10
asd 89 68 89 61 / 20 20 10 10
msy 88 72 89 67 / 20 10 20 10
gpt 87 69 89 60 / 20 20 10 10
pql 89 66 88 58 / 20 20 10 10
&&
Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
