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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
310 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015


High pressure center remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon. Upper ridging is not quite as strong as it has been
over the last several days. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
have developed across western portions of the County Warning Area this afternoon.
Temperatures at middle afternoon are generally in the upper 80s and
lower 90s with dew points in the middle 70s.


Short term...

Expect most of current convection to dissipate prior to sunset.
Bermuda high surges westward again over the weekend...centering
itself over Texas by Saturday. Still see the opportunity for
isolated to scattered convection each day as the convective
temperature is reached. Thursday and Friday appear to be the days
this will most easily be reached...and have gone with chance probability of precipitation
for those days. Temperatures generally in the lower 90s. Heat
index readings generally in the 100-105 range. 35


Long term...

Medium range models in somewhat reasonable agreement through at
least Monday. No large scale features to force convective
development...and do not see any reason to go much higher than 20
percent on probability of precipitation through the extended forecast period. Expect
temperatures to creep a little higher into the lower and middle 90s
for highs. Will need to monitor humidities for potential heat current forecast has some heat index readings near
105 for Sunday and Monday. 35



Expect VFR to MVFR ceilings over the area this evening. A few showers
have developed over the western portions of the forecast area and
have included thunderstorms in the vicinity at kbtr through the afternoon and evening. Some
patchy fog is possible in some terminals and are reflected in
tafs. Expect more of the same conditions tomorrow. 13/mh



Bermuda ridge to maintains light southerly flow over the coastal
waters through the forecast period. Any thunderstorms that develop
over the next several days will be isolated. Winds and seas should
continue to be on the lower end of things around 10 knots or less
and seas around 2 feet. 13/mh


Decision support...

Activities...river flood warnings on Mississippi River from Red
River Landing to Baton Rouge.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused watch/warning/advisory
issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate risk severe and/or direct
tropical threats; events of National significance


Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 75 92 73 92 / 10 20 10 20
btr 76 92 75 92 / 10 20 10 30
asd 78 92 76 91 / 0 10 10 30
msy 79 92 78 91 / 0 10 10 30
gpt 78 90 78 90 / 0 10 10 30
pql 76 91 75 90 / 0 10 10 30


Lix watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations