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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
403 am CDT Wednesday may 6 2015

Short term...
a weak trough axis located from Dallas to near Austin then bends
southeast toward Victoria Texas then east well out over the Gulf. The
portion of this trough over the Gulf will begin to slowly lift
north today reaching the northern and central Gulf Coast by
Thursday. This will help enhance rain chances a bit. Have moved
pop numbers up a bit for this but may see 30% in locations near
Baton Rouge. May see a normal distribution of 20% numbers after
Thursday.

Long term...
the stronger trough out west over Oklahoma will move very very
slowly toward our area through Monday of next week. This will be
the next best shot of sh/ts. Models want to bring this front
through slowly. But this is the front that picks up the tropical
system by the start of next week. This should ensure the cold
front moves through this area cleanly.

&&

Marine...persistent onshore continues but winds are beginning to
relax. This will continue over the next fee days as high pressure
builds back in over the Gulf. Still expecting exercise caution
criteria in the outer waters today. /Cab/

&&

Aviation...VFR conditions will once again primarily prevail at the
terminals through 06z Thursday. The exception may be a brief period
of MVFR visibilities due to patchy fog prior to and around daybreak
Wednesday at the more fog prone taf sites. Isolated showers will be
possible during the day Wednesday...but rain chances are too low to
mention as a possibility in the tafs at this time. /Cab/

&&

Decision support...
dss code...blue.
Deployed...none.
Activation...no.
Activities...small craft advisories

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate tonight risk severe
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National
significance



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 80 63 83 64 / 20 10 20 10
btr 82 66 84 66 / 20 10 20 10
asd 80 66 82 66 / 20 10 20 10
msy 81 69 82 69 / 20 10 20 10
gpt 79 66 81 67 / 10 10 10 0
pql 80 63 82 63 / 10 10 10 0

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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