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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
903 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Sounding discussion...

First release terminated due to bad temperature and dew point
data. Second release successfully terminated over Jackson County
Mississippi just northwest of Vancleave at an altitude of 105.9k
feet or just over 20 miles up.

Drier air has worked into much of the sounding with a precipitable
water value of 1.39 inches...which is about 128 percent of normal.
About a 3 degree c cap at 850 mb this morning. Sounding unstable
above that layer with middle level lapse rates around 7.2c/km. The
surface to 3km shear is 35 knots...and the surface to 6km shear is
57 knots. Freezing level around 14.2k feet...-20c level at 24.6k
feet...with a wet bulb zero height of 9600 feet. This would
certainly support large hail with a few Golf Ball size hail
reports late yesterday afternoon. Southwest winds throughout the
sounding with a maximum wind of 90 knots at 35.3k feet. 35

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 344 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

Discussion...
the main forecast concerns continue to center around convection
over the next few days and the possibility of severe weather.
Scattered showers have been increasing across the forecast area
somewhat this morning while the more significant convection has
stayed to the north of the area. The middle level short wave trough
that has been responsible for the active weather across the
Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley over the last
couple days will move out of the Central Plains and into the
Midwest today. However a strong and active southern jet will
continue to affect the Gulf Coast region. The rrq of an upper jet
streak will continue to help support convective development over
the lower Mississippi Valley before pulling off to the east
northeast later in the day. Sufficient cape and instability should
be present to support scattered convection across the area today
with strong middle level westerly winds supportive of a few stronger
to severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a
slight risk for severe weather across coastal Mississippi and a
marginal risk of severe weather across the remainder of the
forecast area today. Directional shear will be decreasing early
today with helicity values diminishing. The water content of the
atmospheric column is forecast to decrease later in the day and
especially tonight and early Sunday with precipitable water values
approaching a little over one inch by the end of that time before
rebounding during the day Sunday. Another strong jet streak will
traverse the central Gulf Coast region on Sunday along with a weak
impulse embedded in the flow aloft. These features along with the
approach of a frontal boundary from the north and lake and seas
breeze boundaries acting as a focus will set the stage for
isolated convection during the day Sunday. Significant diurnal
heating during the day Sunday...highs in the upper 80s to near 90
in many areas...will result in substantial cape and instability. A
few strong to severe storms are also possible Sunday. The storm
predication center has outlooked the entire forecast area for a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Sunday.

The next weather maker will affect the region early in the
upcoming work week. This will evolve as an upper trough currently
digging over the western Continental U.S. Closes off an upper low over The
Four Corners region which will then slowly translate eastward
across the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley over the
first half of the week. An associated surface low will move east
in the vicinity of the central Gulf region during this period.
This dynamic system will will have ample moisture to work with
resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday through
Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with this system.
Again a few storms could be on the stronger side and the Storm
Prediction Center has included the entire forecast area in a
slight risk on Monday...although this should primarily be late
Monday and Monday night. As this system pulls off to the
east...the GFS closes off another upper low over the lower
Mississippi Valley and and central Gulf Coast region while the
European model (ecmwf) does so much farther north. The GFS solution could result in
an extended period of continued rain chances into the end of the
week while the European model (ecmwf) would be primarily dry. At this time...will
continue to indicate a dry forecast during this period. The
weather should be significantly cooler for the last half of the
work week. 11

Aviation...
an inversion at about 800ft is helping to keep moisture and cloud
cover locked in the boundary layer this morning. Ceilings will lower
along with the inversion to around ovc003 for areas south of Lake
Pontchartrain. Most terminals should see ovc005 as their lowest
ceilings this morning as prevailing conditions with tempo groups
retaining short term ovc001 and visible restricted to 2sm for those
experiencing the lowest ceilings. After 12z...a second surge of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through along with a
weak frontal boundary. Have included prevailing showers and MVFR
visibilities...along with MVFR ceilings of 1000 to 1500 feet to
reflect the expected overall conditions this morning. Of
course...any stronger thunderstorms will produce gusty winds and IFR
conditions as they move through.

Marine...
predominate southerly winds will continue through Sunday.
Wind speeds will ease through today from around 15kts to 5-10kts
later. The next system to affect the coastal waters will be Monday
and Tuesday. Winds will increase ahead of the surface low from the
southeast to 15-20kts. The surface low is expected to develop near the
Texas coastal Bend and move to the east just off the coast through
Wednesday. As the low moves east Tuesday northwest winds will quickly move
in behind it and rise to 20-25 knots with higher gusts. Wind speeds
are not expected to ease below 15-20kts until Thursday night.

Decision support...
dss code...Orange
deployed...Navy week.
Activation...none.
Activities...monitoring severe weather potential through weekend.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate tonight risk severe
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National
significance

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 85 67 88 65 / 50 10 10 20
btr 86 69 89 68 / 40 10 10 20
asd 85 69 88 69 / 40 10 20 20
msy 86 72 88 72 / 40 10 20 20
gpt 85 72 86 70 / 40 10 20 20
pql 85 70 87 68 / 40 10 20 20

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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