Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
353 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015
Discussion...quiet night with cold front right on the door step.
There has been very limited convection along the front as it has
approached the County Warning Area.
Bulk of the forecast concerns are today and that is actually quite
minimal. Overall not too impressed with rain chances with this front
but can see some reasons to keep the mention of light rain showers today.
Overall ll convergence is not the greatest but there is some to
work with. Moisture is pooling right ahead of the front but the
greatest influence for rain showers developing today will be daytime heating
so timing and location of the front will make all the difference
with where isolated to widely scattered rain showers can develop today. With all of
this will keep a very small chance for rain along the MS/la border.
From just north of the I-12 corridor to the coast will indicate 20-
30% chance as the combination of the front...heating...and
approaching short wave should be enough to get a little bit more activity
late this morning and during the early afternoon hours.
After the front pushes through high pressure will build in bringing
in much drier air to the area. Skies should clear quickly tonight.
As previous forecaster mentioned dewpoints will drop into the 40s and 50s
and this should lead to very pleasant nights across the region. On
the other hand afternoon highs will still climb into the 80s through much
of the week as h925 temperatures remain around 20-23c.
Heading into the weekend we could see another re-enforcing cold
front which will cool the ll off a tad along with even drier
dewpoints. Highs could stay in the 70s to near 80 and lows could try
to dip into the upper 40s in a few places. /Cab/
Aviation... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the
period with the exception of some patchy fog and lower clouds near
daybreak. A cold front will work its way through the area today with
a wind shift to the northwest. Isolated showers will accompany this
boundary but the coverage expected is too low to add to a tempo or
prevailing group for precipitation. /Meffer/
weak cold front still looking like it will move into the coastal
waters tonight. Expect shift to offshore direction with speeds
mainly in the 10 to 15 knot range. A brief period of near calm
conditions will develop over all but outer coastal waters Wednesday
night as surface ridge quickly moves in. Easterly winds will develop
the rest of the week as the surface high moves northeast away from the
area. The pressure gradient will be stronger in outer waters and
thus wind speeds will be near exercise caution. Another cold front
will move through Saturday morning. Strong northeast winds are
expected with near small craft conditions developing. /Meffer/
Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused watch/warning/advisory
issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate risk severe and/or direct
tropical threats; events of National significance
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 85 51 85 54 / 20 0 0 0
btr 86 53 86 55 / 20 0 0 0
asd 83 54 83 56 / 30 10 0 0
msy 82 60 83 60 / 20 10 0 0
gpt 81 57 81 59 / 20 10 0 0
pql 81 53 80 53 / 20 10 0 0
Short/long term: cab