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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
753 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

..sounding discussion...

Low level temperatures are just slightly higher this morning
compared to yesterday morning as the high pressure remains in
control overhead. A little more moisture has made its way into the
column as the precipitable water value has climbed to 1.66 inches.
Showers and thunderstorms that do form today will move in a
general westward direction with the mean storm motion from 93 at
5 knots. Winds at most levels are from the east or northeast and
no greater than 20 knots until nearing the tropopause.

12z balloon info: a routine flight this morning that lasted 99
minutes. The balloon ascended to a height of 20.2 miles above
the ground before bursting over Lake Maurepas 42 miles downrange
from the office.



Previous discussion... /issued 359 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/

Short term...
stacked high responsible for our very little to no rain lately
is centered over the arklamiss region but will begin its slow
migration westward by this evening. Slightly drier air will filter
down throughout the area once again today causing somewhat lower
heat index values. The problem with that is the actual ambient
temperature moves higher. So basically...warmer actual temperatures with no heat
advisory. Regardless...this heat has been over the area for right
at two weeks now and caution should still be taken into account
with any outdoor activities.

Long term...
as the pressure cooking ridge backs off over the coming days...we
will finally see a break to the constant heat. Temperatures will remain
warm but we will also see more sh/ts around the area cooling
things down during the afternoons. As the ridge backs off to the will allow the large scale trough to ease down into the
area bringing with it an increase in chances of sh/ts by the end
of this week. An 850 frontal boundary will be located over the
eastern Gulf states bringing a much stronger focus for sh/ts to
develop along.

VFR conditions are generally forecast to will prevail through the
taf forecast period at each of the terminals. Any convection that
does develop across the area this afternoon is expected to be too
isolated in nature to include in the tafs at this time. 11

the winds across the coastal waters are generally expected
to vary from southwest to northwest in direction through the end of
the week and be light to occasionally moderate in magnitude. Seas
will be 3 feet or less. A cold front will approach the central Gulf
Coast at the end of the week. 11

Decision support...
Activities...river flood warnings on Mississippi River from Red
River Landing to Donaldsonville.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused watch/warning/advisory
issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate risk severe and/or direct
tropical threats; events of National significance


Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 97 74 97 75 / 20 10 30 30
btr 96 75 96 76 / 20 10 20 30
asd 96 76 96 77 / 20 10 30 30
msy 94 77 94 79 / 20 10 30 30
gpt 94 77 95 78 / 20 20 30 30
pql 95 76 95 77 / 20 20 30 30


Lix watches/warnings/advisories...


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