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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
755 am CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

..sounding discussion...
The sounding this morning is stable with an inversion at the surface
and several subtle inversions aloft up to 450 mb. Precipitable water is up a bit
from yesterday at 1.68 inches. Winds are northeast at the surface and
become northwest by 500 mb. Peak wind is 50 kts at 250 mb. A
broken cloud deck at about 5000 feet over western parts of the area
will be clearing this morning.



Previous discussion... /issued 324 am CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015/

tranquil weather will prevail throughout the forecast period with
warm and dry conditions expected. Middle/upper level ridging will
build across the central and Southern Plains and into the lower
and middle Mississippi Valley early in the forecast period in advance
of a closed low shifting eastward over the southwest Continental U.S.. this
will result in highs temperatures running a few degrees above
normal through middle week...mainly in the middle and upper 80s. The
ridging will be suppressed by the end of the week as a broad long
wave trough translates eastward across the eastern half of the
country bringing a return of northwest flow aloft across the Gulf
Coast region. As a result of the lowered heights associated with
the trough...high temperatures will be knocked down a couple of
degrees Friday and through the weekend. A weak cold front
associated with this upper trough may move through the region
Saturday...however the brunt of any push of cooler air of
consequence will be to the to east of the forecast area.
Some slightly drier air into the area for
the weekend. Little of no precipitation is expected with the cold
front as deep moisture will be lacking. Upper level ridging may
again try to nose back into the region early next week. 11

ceilings will be in and out today. Bkn050 will rise to bkn070 then
scattered at that level by afternoon. Will see mostly sct050 tonight with
an occasional bkn050 but will show prevailing with no ceiling. Winds
will remain light. 17

have allowed headlines to drop this morning as winds slowly ease
to 15 knots. A few gusts to 20 knots will remain for a few more
hours this morning for the outer waters but even these areas will
continue to fall back toward the 10 to 15 knot level. 17

Decision support...

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused watch/warning/advisory
issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate risk severe and/or direct
tropical threats; events of National significance


Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 87 64 87 67 / 0 0 0 0
btr 88 66 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
asd 85 66 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
msy 84 69 85 70 / 0 0 0 0
gpt 83 69 86 69 / 0 0 0 0
pql 84 66 86 68 / 0 0 0 0


Lix watches/warnings/advisories...


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