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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
354 am CDT Thursday Apr 2 2015

Short term...
conditionally we will be more unstable today than we will be
Friday. There is just no focus to connect the surface variables with
the middle and upper dynamics today. There is a subtle ~850mb
feature that will be stationary from Houston to north of Jackson
miss where we should see some shower activity develop. An isolated
thunderstorm can't be ruled out but instability is low enough
until north of McComb for anything in the way of ts to
materialize. A little more development is expected Friday along
with the addition of a cold front moving through northern la then
southeast la by late Friday evening. Some single cell activity looks to
develop ahead of the cold front in an area where conditional
instability is not at a level that lends to high confidence of any
strong or severe ts. But as several ts develop within this area
along and north of a line from Baton Rouge to Picayune...it will
only take one ts cell to take advantage of what is available in
that area to become a problem. The cold front should be well
within the area by midnight as activity along the front starts to
weaken. The front will rush into the Gulf and quickly stall. Then
return flow will begin over the area by Sunday.

Long term...
moisture loading over the Gulf states will give rise to low end
pop numbers Monday through Tuesday. We still do not have enough data or
sampling to give any confidence toward the ts activity associated
with the cold front moving through at the end of next week. This
front may be sluggish as it moves through but some prefrontal
features do look interesting for Friday. But as this scenario gets
closer...all this could change.

&&

Aviation...
outside of some fog and lower clouds this morning...VFR conditions
will prevail through the period with southerly winds generally in
the 10 to 15 knots range and cloud bases 4-5 kft during the day. 95/dm

&&

Marine...
onshore flow will persist through Friday with sustained winds in
the 10 to 15 knots range. Speeds will briefly fall late Friday night
into early Saturday morning as a cold front approaches...but will
pick up again as winds shift to and high pressure builds in behind
the front. Small craft advisories look likely Saturday...possibly
lasting into Sunday morning. Winds will relax Sunday afternoon as
the pressure gradient weakens. 95/dm

&&

Decision support...
dss code...green.
Deployed...none.
Activation...none.
Activities...none.



Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate tonight risk severe
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National
significance

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 82 65 82 53 / 30 10 40 50
btr 84 66 84 56 / 30 10 30 50
asd 81 67 81 60 / 20 10 20 50
msy 81 68 82 62 / 20 10 20 40
gpt 77 68 78 61 / 20 10 20 40
pql 78 66 79 60 / 20 10 20 40

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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