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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
349 am CDT sun may 3 2015

Short term... fairly benign weather expected again today with weak
upper level ridging in place and surface high centered to the east
over the southeastern Continental U.S.. the placement of the surface to the
east has allowed for winds to become southeast and gradually
bringing up dewpoints. There is a low end chance for a spotty shower
or 2 to develop today but model soundings show a strong cap in place
should keep coverage low enough to not warrant any mention of rain
in the forecast.

This will not be the case as much going into Monday as a northern
clipper trough weakens the upper ridge over the Gulf south.
Increasing southeast flow will bring more moisture into the area at
this time as well. Model sounding then indicates precipitable water increasing
along with cooling middle level temperatures. This will remove cin and
instability will be allowed to be realized. The forecast probability of precipitation remain
similar to previous with 20 to 30 percent coverage expected.


Long term... upper level ridge will then begin building from the
Bay of Campeche and northeast through the Tennessee Valley from
Tuesday Onward. Rain chances...not high to begin with...will fade to
isolated for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
Temperatures will follow this trend with middle 80 highs becoming
better established.


Marine...high pressure will continue to slide east and become centered
off the middle Atlantic coast tomorrow morning. On shore is already
setting back up and will strengthen over the next few days. Light
winds today will increase tomorrow and tomorrow night as a surface low
over the Central Plains and the ridge in the Atlantic tighten the
pressure gradient. Winds will likely increase to 15-20kts with seas
up to 6 feet. By late Monday. /Cab/


Aviation...VFR conditions expected for the most part. There will be
some light fog at the usual problem sites and visibilities could lead to
tempo IFR conditions but as soon as the sun comes up VFR status will
dominate. /Cab/


Decision support... dss Deployed...none. Activities...none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend green = no weather
impacts that require action blue = long fused
watch/warning/advisory in effect or high visibility
event yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support Orange = high
impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes red = full engagement for
moderate tonight risk severe and/or direct tropical threats;
events of National significance


Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 81 58 81 61 / 0 0 20 10
btr 82 59 82 63 / 10 10 30 10
asd 77 62 79 64 / 10 10 20 10
msy 78 65 79 68 / 10 20 30 10
gpt 77 64 79 65 / 10 10 10 10
pql 78 62 81 63 / 10 10 10 10


Lix watches/warnings/advisories...


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