Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
640 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Sounding discussion...

The 00z sounding continues to show a very strong 4 degree celsius
elevated cap around 800mb. With this cap still in place...the risk
of deep convection developing through the evening hours is
basically none. Overall...lapse rates will need to improve
considerably throughout the atmospheric column for convective risk
to increase. Low level moisture advection continues to be strong
with precipitable water values rising nearly half an inch since the 12z sounding.
This moisture advection should continue through the evening hours
due to continued strong low level onshore flow in excess of 25
knots. A special sounding at will be done at 06z to get another
assessment of the atmosphere in advance of the expected
thunderstorm activity Sunday morning. 32

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 60 74 53 64 / 80 100 10 10
btr 62 76 53 64 / 90 90 10 10
asd 62 76 55 66 / 80 100 10 10
msy 64 77 57 66 / 80 100 10 10
gpt 63 75 57 67 / 70 100 10 10
pql 62 75 57 68 / 70 100 20 10

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...coastal Flood Advisory until 6 am Sunday for the following
zones: lower Plaquemines...lower St.
Bernard...Orleans...and upper St. Bernard.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM Sunday for the following zones:
Breton Sound...Chandeleur Sound...coastal waters from
Boothville la to the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi
River out 20 nm...coastal waters from Pascagoula MS to
Stake Island la from 20 to 60 nm...coastal waters from
Pascagoula MS to Stake Island la out 20 nm...coastal waters
from Port Fourchon to lower Atchafalaya River from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from Port Fourchon to lower Atchafalaya
River out 20 nm...coastal waters from Stake Island la to
the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River to Port Fourchon from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River to Port Fourchon out 20 nm...Lake
Borgne...Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...and
Mississippi Sound.

MS...coastal Flood Advisory until 6 am Sunday for the following
zones: and Hancock.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM Sunday for the following zones:
Breton Sound...Chandeleur Sound...coastal waters from
Boothville la to the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi
River out 20 nm...coastal waters from Pascagoula MS to
Stake Island la from 20 to 60 nm...coastal waters from
Pascagoula MS to Stake Island la out 20 nm...coastal waters
from Port Fourchon to lower Atchafalaya River from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from Port Fourchon to lower Atchafalaya
River out 20 nm...coastal waters from Stake Island la to
the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River to Port Fourchon from 20 to 60
nm...coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River to Port Fourchon out 20 nm...Lake
Borgne...Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...and
Mississippi Sound.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations