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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
753 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

..sounding discussion...
This evening/S balloon burst west-southwest of Covington at a height of
almost 20 miles above the ground. Very little in the way of
thunderstorms this evening across our Louisiana parishes and
Mississippi counties despite instability and some directional and
speed shear. Winds from the surface to 550mb are primarily from the
south or southeast and light. Above 550mb winds are from the
southwest with a peak wind speed of 27 knots at about 7 miles
above the ground. Precipitable water values are near their
climatological norms.



Previous discussion... /issued 353 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014/

upper level low continues to impact the area but at much lesser of a
degree this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows this feature
becoming stretched out and starting to lose its integrity. This is
what you/d expect with upper level trough digging across the
southeast and ridges to the west and east. Just not much room for a
low to maintain itself between all these. Latest radar images show
this with convection more limited this afternoon than yesterday
afternoon. Maybe not but a lot...but definitely a noticeable decrease.
Hrrr is slightly overdoing the coverage at the current time stamp
and it suggests a quick decrease in activity as the sun sets...
which is to be expected. Offshore showers will likely continue
overnight as with previous nights.

Between now and Sunday the rain chances will gradually decrease as
upper level ridge builds further east across the southern Continental U.S..
this will also result in increasing temperatures...bringing them closer to
the climatology norms.

Previous discussion
next week models still point to an active jet pattern and an upper
trough that will dig across the the eastern part of the country
Sunday into Monday. This will result in a cold front being pushed
into the lower Mississippi Valley and north half of forecast area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Rain chances will increase along and
south of the front Monday and Tuesday. 18

VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside any localized
convective impacts. Much of the convection should abate by 01z and
redevelop generally after 16z Thursday. 24/rr

main Bermuda surface high extends into the Gulf of Mexico with a
sub-like center being maintained in the eastern Gulf of Mexico today
through the weekend. This will keep flow generally southwest with
speeds ranging mainly from around 8-13 knots and seas 2 feet or
less. A weak summertime cold front will approach the coastal waters
early next week. At this time it appears the boundary will stall
across the offshore waters which will causes winds to become
parallel to the boundary.


Decision support...

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate to high risk severe
and/or direct tropical threats; events of National


Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 68 90 70 92 / 20 40 20 20
btr 72 91 73 92 / 20 40 20 20
asd 71 90 72 92 / 20 40 20 20
msy 75 89 77 90 / 20 40 20 20
gpt 75 90 74 91 / 20 30 20 30
pql 71 89 72 90 / 20 30 20 30


Lix watches/warnings/advisories...


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